Forget Benghazi. Clinton’s Real Problem Is Obama Fatigue.

Stephanie

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2004
70,230
10,864
Vote this party out people, we can't AFFORD anymore of these fascist/government growing PROGRESSIVES
links and graph at site


SNIP:

The latest investigation into the Benghazi attack reminds us that the issue isn’t going away any time soon. Pundits are already speculating about potential damage to Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects, but don’t believe the hype: Scandals rarely matter much in presidential election campaigns.

A far more significant threat to her potential candidacy is Americans’ desire for new leadership after eight years of the Obama administration. A Pew Research Center/USA Today poll found this week that 65 percent of Americans would “like to see a president who offers different policies and programs.” Only 30 percent said they wanted ones “similar to those of the Obama administration.”

Some of those disaffected citizens are presumably Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who will ultimately support the party’s nominee in 2016, but the problem that the poll highlights is real. Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, calls this the “time for change” effect.

A threat to Hillary Clinton's potential candidacy is Americans’ desire for new ideas and leadership, as reflected in a new poll, after eight years of the Obama administration. Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times

“When a party has held the White House for two or more terms,” he said, “voters will be more likely to feel that it is time to give the opposing party an opportunity to govern.” Consider, for instance, the 1992 Clinton campaign mantra “change vs. more of the same” that was featured in the documentary “The War Room.”



As Abramowitz has shown, the incumbent party has typically fared worse in “time for change” elections like 2016 during the post-World War II era. When the incumbent party has held the White House for two or more terms, it has won only two of nine elections since 1948. When the incumbent party has held the presidency for only one term, it has won seven of eight.

Moreover, historical data suggests that the public’s attitude today is similar to the run-up to a previous “time for change” election that didn’t go well for the incumbent party. As the chart indicates, the percentage of Americans who currently favor “different policies and programs” is closer to levels from the 2005-2006 period under George W. Bush, another relatively unpopular second-term president presiding over a weak economic recovery, than from 1999-2000, when Bill Clinton was president and the economy was much stronger.



The Public Seems Ready for a Change

graph and the rest here
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/10/u...larys-real-problem-is-obama-fatigue.html?_r=1
 
You might have a point here. Some people argued the reason why Al Gore lost in 2000 (Ooops, no, sorry, he actually won, but Bush Stole the Election) was because of "Clinton Fatigue".

And some have argued McCain's biggest problem was "Bush Fatigue".

All other things being equal, the party in the White House has changed every 8 years all the way back to 1952.

The problem the GOP has is that all things aren't equal. The GOP has become to radical to win a majority in a national election, which is how they've gone from winning landslides in the 1970's and 1980s to only clearing 50% once since 1992, with just about every favorable aspect on their side.
 
Well, in that case, it should be easy for the GOP to put up a decent candidate with ideas that the majority of Americans want to vote for.

Do they have one?
 

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