How soon to the next big correction/crash?

[DrainBamage]

As an ex-software developer and non-Indian Business Visa, I couldn't care any less about the what the BLS has to say about anything.

Well hey what do you know, I'm an ex-software developer too. I don't use that fact to try to add weight to my opinion, but nice to see a comrade of the industry.

Their phony data is fed to them by the very same small to large size entities that want the cheapest labor possible.
Not to mention that many Health Care professionals, including MDs, are being replaced by Indian Business Visas.

Okay explain this claim you're making because I'd be interested to learn about it. Who exactly is feeding BLS phony data? The BLS current population survey is accomplished by calling households, how exactly is any large entity feeding them anything?

Your personal anecdotes on your doctor is about as useful as your conversations with mortgage brokers here. Irrelevant.

So explain to me how the phony data works?

 

[Indeependent]

As an ex-software developer and non-Indian Business Visa, I couldn't care any less about the what the BLS has to say about anything.

Well hey what do you know, I'm an ex-software developer too. I don't use that fact to try to add weight to my opinion, but nice to see a comrade of the industry.

Their phony data is fed to them by the very same small to large size entities that want the cheapest labor possible.
Not to mention that many Health Care professionals, including MDs, are being replaced by Indian Business Visas.

Okay explain this claim you're making because I'd be interested to learn about it. Who exactly is feeding BLS phony data? The BLS current population survey is accomplished by calling households, how exactly is any large entity feeding them anything?

Your personal anecdotes on your doctor is about as useful as your conversations with mortgage brokers here. Irrelevant.

So explain to me how the phony data works?

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.
The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".
I personally know 200+ MDs and a few dozen of them in my Town have already been rendered unemployable by Hospitals, Clinics and by Pro-Health, which is buying medical practice and offering the Doctors 2 year contracts.
The contracts are rarely renewed as there are more than enough Business Visas flooding our borders.

The bottom line...The BLS is worthless.

 

[DrainBamage]

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how? You said it is phony, this steady downward trend of part time workers, how exactly is phony data making that trend happen?

 

[Indeependent]

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how?

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.
The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

 

[william the wie]

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how? You said it is phony, this steady downward trend of part time workers, how exactly is phony data making that trend happen?

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how? You said it is phony, this steady downward trend of part time workers, how exactly is phony data making that trend happen?

There are three major things wrong with BLS data that everyone agrees on:

Labor force participation rate is at its lowest rate in decades.

part time employment is the only growing section of employment.

The birth-death jobs model is so screwed up that no one believes it is anywhere near correct ever except for random chance.

 

[DrainBamage]

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.

BLS is part of the Department of Labor, the data on part-time workers comes from the Current Population Survey conducted by Census Bureau. Here:

The Current Population Survey (CPS)[1] is a monthly survey of about 60,000 U.S. households conducted monthly by the United States Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS uses the data to publish reports early each month called the Employment Situation.[2] This report provides estimates of the unemployment rate and the numbers of employed and unemployed people in the United States based on the CPS. A readable Employment Situation Summary[3] is provided monthly.

Calling companies is done for CES, which is used for data on number of jobs not characteristics of employment like who is working part-time for economic reasons.

The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

None of this bolsters your argument. I'll again ask, how EXACTLY is the data on part-time workers that shows downward trend since the recession phony?

 

[DrainBamage]

There are three major things wrong with BLS data that everyone agrees on:

Labor force participation rate is at its lowest rate in decades.

part time employment is the only growing section of employment.

The birth-death jobs model is so screwed up that no one believes it is anywhere near correct ever except for random chance.

Yep, labor force participation rate has been trending lower since 2001, but I'd hardly call from 67% to 63% a "collapse" as you described. I'm not sure how this makes BLS data wrong, they public exactly what they measure with U-3 through U-6.

Full time employment hasn't been growing? Explain.

 

[Indeependent]

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.

BLS is part of the Department of Labor, the data on part-time workers comes from the Current Population Survey conducted by Census Bureau. Here:

The Current Population Survey (CPS)[1] is a monthly survey of about 60,000 U.S. households conducted monthly by the United States Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS uses the data to publish reports early each month called the Employment Situation.[2] This report provides estimates of the unemployment rate and the numbers of employed and unemployed people in the United States based on the CPS. A readable Employment Situation Summary[3] is provided monthly.

Calling companies is done for CES, which is used for data on number of jobs not characteristics of employment like who is working part-time for economic reasons.

The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

None of this bolsters your argument. I'll again ask, how EXACTLY is the data on part-time workers that shows downward trend since the recession phony?

2009 job losses already have topped 2 million mark - Apr. 3, 2009
You mean you don't know that millions of people lost their jobs in 2009 and that most of these jobs were taken by the business visas that were laid off and didn't go back home?
Do you live in La La Land?

I told you the truth and you don't want the truth.
I will no longer respond concerning this particular subject until you go to your local DOL and ask.

 

[william the wie]

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how?

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.
The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how?

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.
The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

Since this is more your area of expertise than mine I want to ask how difficult would it be to set up a tell me three times rating of policy moves using Bayesian probability, fuzzy logic and Chaos theory and multiple iterations to reduce the amount of wishing it is so in so much of the bureaucracy?

 

[Indeependent]

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how?

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.
The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

My personal anecdotes run into the hundreds as I'm an Orthodox Jew who has family and friends all over the US.
You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
My personal anecdotes concerning Trump becoming President were also ridiculed on this board...until Trump won.
The Internet has enabled massive groups of Jews to communicate with each other on a daily basis and we share what's going on in our lives.

You're making a lot more effort trying to establish how you must be right since you know a lot of people, but I would never accept claims of someone's social circle as evidence of their intellectual superiority, would you? Didn't think so, so why bother.

The BLS get massaged data from companies and is at least 3 months behind in it's "accuracy".

Ah ha! This is what I'm looking for. Explain. You can put so much content in your post about how many advanced degrees your friends have, if you would take the time to instead back up your claims about how exactly the BLS data I posted on part-time workers is wrong I'd love to hear it.

I personally know

I'll repeat again, who you claim to and personal anecdotes know doesn't make you right about macroeconomic measures. I'm fairly skeptical of someone actually knowing anything who's argument consists of 90% claims of how much they know and 10% actually demonstrating it.

So about the BLS data for part timers being wrong... how?

If you want to know how the BLS collects data, go to you local Department of Labor and they will tell you what I just told you.
The BLS gets it's data from companies and companies always want to look like the good guys.
The DOL of labor will admit they DON'T audit the input.
Really, take a trip and get the truth.

Since this is more your area of expertise than mine I want to ask how difficult would it be to set up a tell me three times rating of policy moves using Bayesian probability, fuzzy logic and Chaos theory and multiple iterations to reduce the amount of wishing it is so in so much of the bureaucracy?

There is NO chaos in Government OR Business when it comes to making more by paying people less.
I suggest you take a trip to YOUR local DOL and ask from where the employment figures originate.

 

[william the wie]

UE does not measure the participation rate because the self employed, the military, the gray market or black market are not actually counted.

 

[DrainBamage]

]2009 job losses already have topped 2 million mark - Apr. 3, 2009
You mean you don't know that millions of people lost their jobs in 2009 and that most of these jobs were taken by the business visas that were laid off and didn't go back home?
Do you live in La La Land?

So as evidence the trend of part time workers going down is phony, you present an article from 2009 saying how many jobs were lost?

I don't disagree that there were millions of jobs lost in the great recession.. My argument was that since said recession the number of people working part time for economic reasons has been falling, which obviously an article from 2009 wouldn't refute since it can't see into the future. I'm baffled as to how you think that link helps you out here, nobody is arguing there wasn't a recession with lots of job losses.

I told you the truth and you don't want the truth.
I will no longer respond concerning this particular subject until you go to your local DOL and ask.

This isn't true, you said the BLS data is bunk and when I repeatedly ask you exactly how you've come up with:
- much text about how gloriously educated your friends are
- riveting details of your interactions with mortgage brokers
- a misunderstanding of how BLS calculates employment characteristics
- an article from 2009 stating the obvious

I'll ask again, how exactly is the BLS data on number of workers part time for economic reasons phony? Hint = an 8 year old article about the recession doesn't provide this.

 

[Indeependent]

]2009 job losses already have topped 2 million mark - Apr. 3, 2009
You mean you don't know that millions of people lost their jobs in 2009 and that most of these jobs were taken by the business visas that were laid off and didn't go back home?
Do you live in La La Land?

So as evidence the trend of part time workers going down is phony, you present an article from 2009 saying how many jobs were lost?

I don't disagree that there were millions of jobs lost in the great recession.. My argument was that since said recession the number of people working part time for economic reasons has been falling, which obviously an article from 2009 wouldn't refute since it can't see into the future. I'm baffled as to how you think that link helps you out here, nobody is arguing there wasn't a recession with lots of job losses.

I told you the truth and you don't want the truth.
I will no longer respond concerning this particular subject until you go to your local DOL and ask.

This isn't true, you said the BLS data is bunk and when I repeatedly ask you exactly how you've come up with:
- much text about how gloriously educated your friends are
- riveting details of your interactions with mortgage brokers
- a misunderstanding of how BLS calculates employment characteristics
- an article from 2009 stating the obvious

I'll ask again, how exactly is the BLS data on number of workers part time for economic reasons phony?

You are one stubborn guy...
Don't ask ME...go to your local DOL and ask THEM.
It's just that you want to think these BLS calculations are so complex it takes a PhD to figure them out.
I know enough PhDs to know it's all a pack of lies.

Now display some maturity and go to your local DOL and ask THEM.

 

[Indeependent]

]2009 job losses already have topped 2 million mark - Apr. 3, 2009
You mean you don't know that millions of people lost their jobs in 2009 and that most of these jobs were taken by the business visas that were laid off and didn't go back home?
Do you live in La La Land?

So as evidence the trend of part time workers going down is phony, you present an article from 2009 saying how many jobs were lost?

I don't disagree that there were millions of jobs lost in the great recession.. My argument was that since said recession the number of people working part time for economic reasons has been falling, which obviously an article from 2009 wouldn't refute since it can't see into the future. I'm baffled as to how you think that link helps you out here, nobody is arguing there wasn't a recession with lots of job losses.

I told you the truth and you don't want the truth.
I will no longer respond concerning this particular subject until you go to your local DOL and ask.

This isn't true, you said the BLS data is bunk and when I repeatedly ask you exactly how you've come up with:
- much text about how gloriously educated your friends are
- riveting details of your interactions with mortgage brokers
- a misunderstanding of how BLS calculates employment characteristics
- an article from 2009 stating the obvious

I'll ask again, how exactly is the BLS data on number of workers part time for economic reasons phony? Hint = an 8 year old article about the recession doesn't provide this.

I just realized by your hyphened points that you haven't been reading my posts with your mind, you've been reading them with your HEART.
The data comes from COMPANIES.
COMPANIES lie (that's how we get Market Crashes).

 

[william the wie]

double counting of those with multiple parttime jobs and that is where Chaos theory comes in. We do not have sufficient knowledge of initial much less present conditions to determine actual changes. A business start supported by part time work could be counted three different ways.

 

[DrainBamage]

UE does not measure the participation rate because the self employed, the military, the gray market or black market are not actually counted.

You're correct, UE doesn't measure labor force participation rate but that isn't what it is trying to measure. It is trying to calculate what percentage of people actively looking for work have jobs. It has no stated goal of measure LBF, so it isn't wrong in the sense of attempting to calculate what its trying to measure.

LBF is also published by BLS, using same data that derives U-3.

Either way I'm not sure how this supports your claim that only part time jobs have been growing.

 

[Indeependent]

double counting of those with multiple parttime jobs and that is where Chaos theory comes in. We do not have sufficient knowledge of initial much less present conditions to determine actual changes. A business start supported by part time work could be counted three different ways.

Most trespassers on Long Island work at least 2 jobs.
Their Citizen children are not doing much better.
The bottom line is that Off-Shoring, Visas and Trespassers have deflated wages.

 

[Indeependent]

UE does not measure the participation rate because the self employed, the military, the gray market or black market are not actually counted.

You're correct, UE doesn't measure labor force participation rate but that isn't what it is trying to measure. It is trying to calculate what percentage of people actively looking for work have jobs. It has no stated goal of measure LBF, so it isn't wrong in the sense of attempting to calculate what its trying to measure.

LBF is also published by BLS, using same data that derives U-3.

Either way I'm not sure how this supports your claim that only part time jobs have been growing.

I presume you live off of your portfolio.

 

[william the wie]

The fact is that if Trump is successful with his platform UE will increase for the next 12-18 months as more people rejoin the laborforce. That is the kind of counter-intuitive mess we are in because of the BLS model.

 

[DrainBamage]

The data comes from COMPANIES.
COMPANIES lie (that's how we get Market Crashes).

No, it doesn't. You keep saying this but I quoted the exact source of the data from BLS. Since you seem determined to ignore this and continue arguing using a fundamental misunderstanding of the subject I'll do it again:

First the source of number of workers part time for economic reasons: Number of people working part time for economic reasons falls in June 2016 : The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

There were 20.5 million people in June 2016 who worked part time for noneconomic reasons. These people worked part time because of school or training, family or personal obligations, or other reasons. These data are from the Current Population Survey. For more information, see “The Employment Situation — June 2016” (HTML) (PDF). For more charts, see Graphics for Economic News Releases: The Employment Situation. Part-time workers are people who worked fewer than 35 hours during the survey reference week.


Now the definition of said Current Population Survey, from Current Population Survey (CPS)

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive body of data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, persons not in the labor force, hours of work, earnings, and other demographic and labor force characteristics.


More on CPS here:

Approximately 60,000 households are eligible for the CPS. Sample households are selected by a multistage stratified statistical sampling scheme.[7] A household is interviewed for 4 successive months, then not interviewed for 8 months, then returned to the sample for 4 months after that. An adult member of each household provides information for all members of the household.


Given above , it takes a special kind of stubborn to be in denial about the source of the data on workers part time for economic reasons. You're thinking of CES survey for calling companies, which is not what is used for employment characteristics. I get that people misunderstand this data, but to plug your ears and keep chanting what is obviously incorrect is incredible.

So again for 10th time, how exactly is the BLS data on part timers phony? (Yes, I realize at this point you just threw that out but cannot back it up)