If Democrats can't beat David Jolly, how can they retake the House?

[Hoosier4Liberty]

I hope this special election puts a rest to this silly notion that the Dems will reclaim the House in 2014. They're saying that 2014 will be a more Democratic year than 2012 and that Republicans elected in the pro-Obama 2012 year will lose in a decidedly anti Obama year.

Let's just remind people what the facts are about this race:
-Alex Sink barely lost to Rick Scott in the uber-Republican 2010 year. Sink is a popular political figure in Florida.
-David Jolly is a professional lobbyist who lobbied to aid a Pakistani dictator. He is currently in a messy divorce and hangs out with his 27 year old girlfriend on the campaign trial. He also killed a person in an automobile accident, though it was when he was 16.
-The congressional district in question voted for Obama twice and for Alex Sink in her gubernatorial bid.


Alex Sink should've crushed David Jolly if this weren't a heavily anti-Obama year.

Liberals, do you still think the Dems can reclaim the House in 2014? I just don't see it.

 

[TheOldSchool]

-David Jolly is a professional lobbyist who lobbied to aid a Pakistani dictator. He is currently in a messy divorce and hangs out with his 27 year old girlfriend on the campaign trial. He also killed a person in an automobile accident, though it was when he was 16.

No wonder cons are so proud

 

[Little-Acorn]

The House is definitely coming to the liberals.

But they might not like what happens when it arrives.

 

[bedowin62]

-David Jolly is a professional lobbyist who lobbied to aid a Pakistani dictator. He is currently in a messy divorce and hangs out with his 27 year old girlfriend on the campaign trial. He also killed a person in an automobile accident, though it was when he was 16.

No wonder cons are so proud

well gee leftard; you kept RE-ELECTING A CRACKHEAD for Mayor at a time when his city had the highest murder rate in the country because of the crack trade

 

[Truthmatters]

dear idiot,

its an R district.

It elected Kathleen Harris for gods sake

 

[Truthmatters]

Florida Central Voter File - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


she stole the 2000 election for Bush

 

[S.J.]

As usual, the Democrats will launch a massive smear campaign (probably with taxpayer money). Then there's always voter fraud, which is one of their favorite tools.

 

[Truthmatters]

PROVE it you lying sack of rat vomit

 

[Truthmatters]

There is NO record of elections cheating on the dem side that comes anywhwere close to the cheating PROVEN by the court records of Rs

 

[auditor0007]

I hope this special election puts a rest to this silly notion that the Dems will reclaim the House in 2014. They're saying that 2014 will be a more Democratic year than 2012 and that Republicans elected in the pro-Obama 2012 year will lose in a decidedly anti Obama year.

Let's just remind people what the facts are about this race:
-Alex Sink barely lost to Rick Scott in the uber-Republican 2010 year. Sink is a popular political figure in Florida.
-David Jolly is a professional lobbyist who lobbied to aid a Pakistani dictator. He is currently in a messy divorce and hangs out with his 27 year old girlfriend on the campaign trial. He also killed a person in an automobile accident, though it was when he was 16.
-The congressional district in question voted for Obama twice and for Alex Sink in her gubernatorial bid.


Alex Sink should've crushed David Jolly if this weren't a heavily anti-Obama year.

Liberals, do you still think the Dems can reclaim the House in 2014? I just don't see it.

Why is it you think that the Dems should have won this race when the district has been won easily by Republicans for such a long time? The fact that it was as close as it was should have Republicans worried, because if they give up as much ground in closer districts, then the Dems will win back the House.

 

[Truthmatters]

they are going to need a lot of Koch money this go arround

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

dear idiot,

its an R district.

It elected Kathleen Harris for gods sake

It voted for Obama twice and for Alex Sink in 2010.

How hard is that for you to understand?

It's recent voting history is more important than how it voted 10 years ago.

 

[Nyvin]

I hope this special election puts a rest to this silly notion that the Dems will reclaim the House in 2014. They're saying that 2014 will be a more Democratic year than 2012 and that Republicans elected in the pro-Obama 2012 year will lose in a decidedly anti Obama year.

Let's just remind people what the facts are about this race:
-Alex Sink barely lost to Rick Scott in the uber-Republican 2010 year. Sink is a popular political figure in Florida.
-David Jolly is a professional lobbyist who lobbied to aid a Pakistani dictator. He is currently in a messy divorce and hangs out with his 27 year old girlfriend on the campaign trial. He also killed a person in an automobile accident, though it was when he was 16.
-The congressional district in question voted for Obama twice and for Alex Sink in her gubernatorial bid.


Alex Sink should've crushed David Jolly if this weren't a heavily anti-Obama year.

Liberals, do you still think the Dems can reclaim the House in 2014? I just don't see it.

Where do people claim the Democrats will retake the House?

 

[bedowin62]

they are going to need a lot of Koch money this go arround

WHY do right-wing Kochs terrify you?

 

[Truthmatters]

terrified?

fuck you I will never fear you assholes

 

[BDBoop]

As I understand it, mid-terms in a second term presidency ... the 'other team' always wins.

So the Democrats aren't supposed to take the House. Not this time, anyway.

Amirite, [MENTION=46168]Statistikhengst[/MENTION]?

 

[Londoner]

Liberals, do you still think the Dems can reclaim the House in 2014? I just don't see it.

No. The Dems will not come close taking the House and they will lose the Senate.

Even if 2014 was a "Democratic Year" (which it isn't), the House has been more heavily gerrymandered than at any time in history. This is why the Dems failed to take the house in the last 2 elections despite getting over 1 million more votes. The only way for the Dems to retake the house is if a Republican president starts another war under false pretenses and gets caught illegally wiretapping American citizens, and starts putting people into houses without verifying that they have jobs, or even a pulse. In other words, Dems will have to wait until 2018, best case.

 

[RandomVariable]

I hope this special election puts a rest to this silly notion that the Dems will reclaim the House in 2014. They're saying that 2014 will be a more Democratic year than 2012 and that Republicans elected in the pro-Obama 2012 year will lose in a decidedly anti Obama year.

Let's just remind people what the facts are about this race:
-Alex Sink barely lost to Rick Scott in the uber-Republican 2010 year. Sink is a popular political figure in Florida.
-David Jolly is a professional lobbyist who lobbied to aid a Pakistani dictator. He is currently in a messy divorce and hangs out with his 27 year old girlfriend on the campaign trial. He also killed a person in an automobile accident, though it was when he was 16.
-The congressional district in question voted for Obama twice and for Alex Sink in her gubernatorial bid.


Alex Sink should've crushed David Jolly if this weren't a heavily anti-Obama year.

Liberals, do you still think the Dems can reclaim the House in 2014? I just don't see it.

Well if you had been campaigning for Sink she should would have won by 15 points.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Hey, Alex Sink lost by 2 points. She was leading by 9 in February. The man she lost to was a lobbyist for a firm convicted of committing Medicare fraud. If the Democrats cannot field a candidate that can use that glaring weakness against him, they have zero hope of taking or keeping either house in November.

 

[Statistikhengst]

As I understand it, mid-terms in a second term presidency ... the 'other team' always wins.

So the Democrats aren't supposed to take the House. Not this time, anyway.

Amirite, [MENTION=46168]Statistikhengst[/MENTION]?

Correct. A complete study of 40 elections from 1854-2012 are here:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...pared-to-presidential-terms-1855-present.html

(20 of them, are, of course, mid-terms)

An exact table of losses and gains in both the HOR and the Senate is here:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms, 1855-present

(the table even has the swing as a %)

I published this statistical data on January 14th, 2014, here in USMB.


Statistically, almost always, the incumbent party takes a major hit in mid-term elections, especially if the mid-term is within the second term of a two-term president, most notably:

Taft 1910
Wilson 1918 (also 1916, not a mid-term)
Harding 1922
Coolidge 1926
Hoover 1930
Roosevelt 1938, 1942 (but not 1934)
Truman 1946, Truman 1950
Eisenhower 1954, Eisenhower 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon 1970, Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982, Reagan 1986
Bush 1990
Clinton 1994 (but not 1998)
Bush (not 2002), but 2006
Obama 2010


The only real exceptions are: Kennedy 1962, Carter 1978, Clinton 1998, Bush 41 2002.

It's all there, clearly laid out, with an exact explanation about how to read the table.

I was thinking about this stuff long before yahoos were screaming FL-13, FL-13.


Statistically, a major hit in a mid-term is in no way a predictor of the next presidential election cycle.


I quote myself from that thread:

So, what can we learn from this information?

1.) We have had divided government a lot more than most people realize.

2.) The statistical probability that the President's party suffers major losses in a mid-term election, especially in a 2nd term mid-term, is extremely high.

3.) Divided government is not necessarily a bad thing. See: Eisenhower, Clinton. Likewise, unified government is not necessarily good. See: Hoover, Carter.

So, before the pundits go blabbing their mouths off about the 2014 elections, know that history is on the side of the GOP in this election.

[MENTION=31258]BDBoop[/MENTION]