Is Covid Endemic?

[eagle1462010]

It could turn very bad for the unvaccinated in the near future. The new strains will quite likely cause deaths in the fully vaccinated, but to a lesser extent.

The vaccines are proven and the hospitals are filling up with the unvaccinated again.

It could be time for Americans to start taking it seriously and stop swallowing horse dewormer, bright lights, and Trump political lies.

 

[Flopper]

I thought about it and hesitantly voted yes ---- but I'm not sure it is yet. Still, 2 years is a very long time for an epidemic. They usually go past before that: look at the bubonic plague. It moved north and took two years to totally be gone (for 20 years or so ---- it kept coming back into the 17th century) but only lasted less than a year at any given place. Of course, it killed so many that this was an issue for contagion.

2 years may be a long time for an epidemic but not a pandemic such as this. Recent events make it quite clear that an out break of a new variant in India, South Africa, or Europe or any place on globe will spread to the US. An epidemic in the US will not become endemic until the number of new cases around the world are reduced such that we are not fighting a new variant very 6 to 12 months.

I agree this pandemic will become endemic in the US but we are not their yet and I doubt we will be for at least another year or so.

 

[Circe]

2 years may be a long time for an epidemic but not a pandemic such as this. Recent events make it quite clear that an out break of a new variant in India, South Africa, or Europe or any place on globe will spread to the US. An epidemic in the US will not become endemic until the number of new cases around the world are reduced such that we are not fighting a new variant very 6 to 12 months.

I agree this pandemic will become endemic in the US but we are not their yet and I doubt we will be for at least another year or so.

Yes, I think you are right. I suppose the worst case scenario is a combo: that each variant becomes endemic.

Very severe epidemic diseases don't become endemic, usually (not always: smallpox did despite very high mortality). Bubonic plague didn't, the 15th-Century English Sweat didn't (what WAS that?? A virus maybe, I just read), Ebola hasn't. Not enough survivors to repopulate new victims, I suppose.

 

[Flopper]

Yes, I think you are right. I suppose the worst case scenario is a combo: that each variant becomes endemic.

Very severe epidemic diseases don't become endemic, usually (not always: smallpox did despite very high mortality). Bubonic plague didn't, the 15th-Century English Sweat didn't (what WAS that?? A virus maybe, I just read), Ebola hasn't. Not enough survivors to repopulate new victims, I suppose.

I think the worst is the Omicron virus with a much higher transmission rate than Delta but only slightly lower death rate. That would bring our medical system leading to draconian restrictions that would bring down the economy.

 

[Circe]

I think the worst is the Omicron virus with a much higher transmission rate than Delta but only slightly lower death rate. That would bring our medical system leading to draconian restrictions that would bring down the economy.

Well, you're about to test that hypothesis --- within the next two months, I suppose, from what we're reading. Spreads all over by early January, the hospitalizations start within a couple weeks, and the deaths within a couple more weeks. So we'll know by the end of January, those of us still here and watching.

 

[Flopper]

Well, you're about to test that hypothesis --- within the next two months, I suppose, from what we're reading. Spreads all over by early January, the hospitalizations start within a couple weeks, and the deaths within a couple more weeks. So we'll know by the end of January, those of us still here and watching.

I was speaking hypothetically but my point is a combination of very high transmissibility compared to delta variant coupled with only moderate death rate could create the worst we have seen in this epidemic. One positive thing that may end up really helping is new restriction in a number sectors including, entertainment, sports, travel, and major events. I would not be surprised to see mask mandates dropped last summer brought back. over the next week or so.

 

[beagle9]

2 years may be a long time for an epidemic but not a pandemic such as this. Recent events make it quite clear that an out break of a new variant in India, South Africa, or Europe or any place on globe will spread to the US. An epidemic in the US will not become endemic until the number of new cases around the world are reduced such that we are not fighting a new variant very 6 to 12 months.

I agree this pandemic will become endemic in the US but we are not their yet and I doubt we will be for at least another year or so.

So you think that the vaccines are the answer to an ever changing landscape when it comes to strain's of viruses and infections ? How did we actually go from living our lives in a world full of these things, and living without fear of our natural immune systems always fighting for us, into a world where face diapers are now becoming the norm, and we're all going to parish from the face of the earth if we don't hurry up and get a vaccine to save us now ??????

So if this has been a man caused situation, then where is the accountability, the investigation, the arrest ???

 

[Flopper]

So you think that the vaccines are the answer to an ever changing landscape when it comes to strain's of viruses and infections ? How did we actually go from living our lives in a world full of these things, and living without fear of our natural immune systems always fighting for us, into a world where face diapers are now becoming the norm, and we're all going to parish from the face of the earth if we don't hurry up and get a vaccine to save us now ??????

So if this has been a man caused situation, then where is the accountability, the investigation, the arrest ???

"So you think that the vaccines are the answer to an ever changing landscape when it comes to strain's of viruses and infections ?"
So far the vaccines have held up well against a half dozen variants. Two mos. after vaccination, the effectiveness against the Delta variant fell from 94% to 80% and 60% after 6 mos. Anything over 50% is consider good. By comparison the Flu vaccine is rarely over 50% effective. If we had not been in an epidemic, boosters would have been recommend every 12 mos like the Flu vaccine.

Vaccines are just part of the solution. The protection afforded by Vaccines + Natural Immunity + Masks + Social Distancing are the solution. They deny the virus a host and without a host the virus is history. Take away the vaccines and the virus still goes away. It will just take longer and more people will die in the process not to mention financial loss.

So far there has been little evidence. Scientist say the virus is not man made because a man made virus would not have the tell tale signs of mutations and replications that this virus has. Although an accidental link is unlike it is certainly more like than a man made virus.

 

[Stryder50]

Some essential EXCERPTS;
.....
12.31.2021 07:00 AM

Covid Will Become Endemic. The World Must Decide What That Means​

The task of 2022 will be figuring out how much action we’re willing to take and how much disease and death we’ll tolerate.

~~~~~~~~~~
A month ago, it felt like we could see the future. Boosters were rolling out. School-age kids were getting their second shots in time to see grandparents over winter break. Life in the United States was sliding toward something that looked like it might be normal—not pre-pandemic normal, of course, but maybe a post-pandemic glimpse.
And then came the Omicron variant, squashing hopes for the holidays as completely as Delta chilled hot vax summer in July. Weeks later, we’re still not sure exactly what it portends. It’s vastly more transmissible. It may or may not be more virulent. It is tearing through countries and spreading through friend groups and sending universities back online for the spring semester.
This is not the year-end we wanted, but it’s the year-end we’ve got. Inside it, like a gift basket accidentally left under the tree too long, lurks a rancid truth: The vaccines, which looked like the salvation of 2021, worked but weren’t enough to rescue us. If we’re going to save 2022, we’ll also have to embrace masking, testing, and maybe staying home sometimes, what epidemiologists broadly call nonpharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs.

Acknowledging that complexity will let us practice for the day Covid settles into a circulating, endemic virus. That day hasn’t arrived yet; enough people remain vulnerable that we have to prepare for variants and surges. But at some point, we’ll achieve a balance that represents how much work we’re willing to do to control Covid, and how much illness and death we’ll tolerate to stay there.
“The key question—which the world hasn’t had to deal with at this scale in living memory—is how do we move on, rationally and emotionally, from a state of acute [emergency] to a state of transition to endemicity?” says Jeremy Farrar, an infectious disease physician who is director of the global health philanthropy the Wellcome Trust. “That transition period is going to be very bumpy, and will look very, very different around the world.”


To start, let’s be clear about what endemicity is, and isn’t. Endemicity doesn’t mean that there will be no more infections, let alone illnesses and deaths. It also doesn’t mean that future infections will cause milder illness than they do now. Simply put, it indicates that immunity and infections will have reached a steady state. Not enough people will be immune to deny the virus a host. Not enough people will be vulnerable to spark widespread outbreaks.

Colds are endemic—and since some types of colds are caused by other coronaviruses, there’s been speculation this coronavirus might eventually moderate too. (The coronavirus OC43, introduced to humans in the late 1800s, took a century to do that.) But flu is also endemic, and in the years before we all started masking, it killed anywhere from 20,000 to 50,000 Americans each year. Endemicity, in other words, isn’t a promise of safety. Instead, as epidemiologist Ellie Murray has argued, it’s a guarantee of having to be on guard all the time.

Endemicity may always have been the best we could hope for. We can’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid, because it has other hiding places in the world: not only the bat species that it likely leapt from, but more than a dozen other animal species in which it has found safe harbor. Only two diseases have ever been eradicated: smallpox and rinderpest. (Not polio, yet, despite decades of trying.) The successful efforts relied on each of those diseases having only a single host, humans for smallpox and cattle for rinderpest. As long as another host for Covid exists, there is no hope of being safe from it forever. As Jonathan Yewdell, a physician and immunologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, bluntly wrote last spring: “Covid-19 herd immunity is a pipe dream.”


To be clear, this isn’t because the vaccines are failures. They do the things they were designed to do—protect against serious illness, hospitalization, and death—and taken as a three-dose series, they reduce the duration of infection. But almost 40 million people remain unvaccinated in the US; globally, only 58 percent of the world’s population has been able to receive even a single shot. Collectively, those billions offer the virus incalculable opportunities to endlessly test its evolutionary strategies for survival. (Granted, viruses don’t actually strategize in any conscious way. But after two years of this, it’s difficult not to anthropomorphize.)

As the pandemic has ground on, we’ve told ourselves different stories about why we do all the things we do to reduce transmission: to protect the elderly and immunocompromised, to prevent hospitals from being crushed, to keep kids safe before child-sized vaccines were tested. We might now have to confront the reality that we need to keep doing all these things just to live in a world that continues to have Covid in it, because vaccination by itself has not made the virus go away. This forces us to learn yet another story about the virus: that while we may individually be protected from the worst outcomes, a transmissible new variant creates a fresh societal risk.
............

Covid Will Become Endemic. The World Must Decide What That Means

The task of 2022 will be figuring out how much action we’re willing to take and how much disease and death we’ll tolerate.

www.wired.com

 

[badger2]

SARS-CoV-2 is infecting American white-tailed deer. The tick that links Lyme disease to those deer is Ixodes scapularis. The saliva from I. scapularis is more intelligent than the Pfizer mRNA BNT162B2 vaccine, because it produces sialostatin. Siaslostatin is more intelligent than Pfizer's vaccine. Pfizer's vaccine is so poor, that it fails to provide mucosal (saliva) immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

 

[Flopper]

Well, you're about to test that hypothesis --- within the next two months, I suppose, from what we're reading. Spreads all over by early January, the hospitalizations start within a couple weeks, and the deaths within a couple more weeks. So we'll know by the end of January, those of us still here and watching.

I don't think so. Deaths since Omicron first came to US on Dec 1 have remained between 1200 and 1300, very close to what they were in November when there was just Delta. The deaths we are seeing now are Delta and if Omicron is gone next month, there is no reason to expect Delta deaths to fall. Delta was the biggest problem before Omicron and it will be after Omicron unless a new more dangerous variant enters the country.

 

[badger2]

Then you study the evolution of Omicron.

Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

The rapid accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant that enabled its outbreak raises questions as to whether its proximal origin occurred in humans or another mammalian host. Here, we identified 45 point mutations that Omicron acquired since divergence from the B.1.1 lineage...

www.biorxiv.org

'....we concluded that the progenitor of Omicron evolved in mouse species (or at least rodent species)....mice are the likely host species.'

How Omicron evolved in mice can't be separated from how it evolved in humans.

 

[badger2]

This tick occurs on Martha's Vineyard, not far from the Arab son's maskless party. The black-legged tick and vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, has salivary anti-asthmatic properties. This will compare with the failure of salivary immunity of Pfizer's BNT162B2 vaccine, here:
Dec 2021 Mucosal Vaccine Failure

Mucosal immune response in BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine recipients - PubMed

This work was funded by the Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Insubria, and partially supported by Fondazione Umberto Veronesi (COVID-19 Insieme per la ricerca di tutti, 2020).

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

This Martha's Vineyard tick link for Ixodes scapularis and asthma includes Fau Chi's laboratories and a pulmonary installation in The Netherlands, not far from the vaccine makers:

Oct 2021 Tick Mucosal Cystatins

Immunomodulatory Proteins in Tick Saliva From a Structural Perspective - PubMed

To feed successfully, ticks must bypass or suppress the host's defense mechanisms, particularly the immune system. To accomplish this, ticks secrete specialized immunomodulatory proteins into their saliva, just like many other blood-sucking parasites. However, the strategy of ticks is rather...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

'....The best studied tick salivary cystatins are two close homolog proteins from Ixodes scapularis, sialostatins L and L2....Sialostatin reduced the expression of IL-9 through IL-1-1R1 signaling, alleviating asthma symptoms. (References: Czech Academy of Sciences, Mar 2012; Czech Academy of Sciences; Institut fuer Medizinische Mikrobiologie une Krankenhaushygiene, Marburg, Germany; Laboratory of Malaria and Vector Research, National Institute of Allergy; Department of Pulmonology, Leiden University, The Netherlands 2015.'

The first reference, links to just one month before Fau Chi's testimony to the U.S. Senate on Dual Use and Influenza (26 Ap 2012), paradoxically, as the ill Tongguan miners were going into the Kunming Hospital, from working in the same hole from which came SARS-CoV-2's closest (or second-closest) relative, RaTG13 (Rhinolophus affinis, TongGuan 13):

Mar 2012 Czech Academy of Sciences

The tick salivary protein sialostatin L inhibits the Th9-derived production of the asthma-promoting cytokine IL-9 and is effective in the prevention of experimental asthma - PubMed

Ticks developed a multitude of different immune evasion strategies to obtain a blood meal. Sialostatin L is an immunosuppressive cysteine protease inhibitor present in the saliva of the hard tick Ixodes scapularis. In this study, we demonstrate that sialostatin L strongly inhibits the production...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The second tick reference linking the Gates-Fau Chi vaccine cartel is here:
Jul 2015

Tick Salivary Sialostatin L Represses the Initiation of Immune Responses by Targeting IRF4-Dependent Transcription in Murine Mast Cells - PubMed

Coevolution of ticks and the vertebrate immune system has led to the development of immunosuppressive molecules that prevent immediate response of skin-resident immune cells to quickly fend off the parasite. In this article, we demonstrate that the tick-derived immunosuppressor sialostatin L...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[Flopper]

Then you study the evolution of Omicron.

Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

The rapid accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant that enabled its outbreak raises questions as to whether its proximal origin occurred in humans or another mammalian host. Here, we identified 45 point mutations that Omicron acquired since divergence from the B.1.1 lineage...

www.biorxiv.org

'....we concluded that the progenitor of Omicron evolved in mouse species (or at least rodent species)....mice are the likely host species.'

How Omicron evolved in mice can't be separated from how it evolved in humans.

So?

 

[Circe]

I don't think so. Deaths since Omicron first came to US on Dec 1 have remained between 1200 and 1300, very close to what they were in November when there was just Delta. The deaths we are seeing now are Delta and if Omicron is gone next month, there is no reason to expect Delta deaths to fall. Delta was the biggest problem before Omicron and it will be after Omicron unless a new more dangerous variant enters the country.

Yes, I've been following the Hopkins graphs closely and while hospitalization is a little higher than the top of the August peak, the deaths graph is not following the case positivity rate and the hospitalization rate up. So far.

 

[badger2]

So?

Dipshit, Baric produced mouse-adapted bat virus chimeras in his North Carolina lab, and Omicron mutation N969Kn is a vaccine-linked mutation. You are one dense c.u.n.t.

 

[Flopper]

Dipshit, Baric produced mouse-adapted bat virus chimeras in his North Carolina lab, and Omicron mutation N969Kn is a vaccine-linked mutation. You are one dense c.u.n.t.

mouse-adapted bat virus chimeras