Lefty Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,’ Senate ‘nearly impossible.’

[Weatherman2020]

The Left committed suicide with their fascist antics at the Kav Hearing.

Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,’ Senate ‘nearly impossible.’

 

[williepete]

Chuckle worthy:

Conservative weekly report card grader Jed Babbin, who gave Trump an A for the week, added, “The president and his family are expected to be out on the campaign trail from now until Election Day. The best news for Republicans is that Bill and Hillary Clinton will be out there too.”

 

[ColonelAngus]

I was looking at the indidual races, which is what really matters.

The people on this board who take any stock in the national generic ballot polls are misguided, to be kind.

Pubs will be between 202 and 250 in the house and 50 and 56 in the Senate.

Probably split the difference, so I will call my shot. No one likes to do this on this board, especially cvnt liberals, lest they be called out.

I got 52-48 in the Senate and 218-217 in the House for the Republicans.

If I am wrong, it won’t be by very much.

 

[DrLove]

The Left committed suicide with their fascist antics at the Kav Hearing.

Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,’ Senate ‘nearly impossible.’

John Zogby is a right wing push poller that will find in favor of whomever is paying him. In short, he's a self-promoting whore .. not in any way respected or reputable.

Zogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website
Zogby – FiveThirtyEight

What polling experts say:

The day before Trump’s tweets, Zogby released a poll that did indicate that Trump had widened his lead after the second Republican presidential debate. However, while the company’s website lists the poll’s sample size and margin of error, it does not provide additional information on the way they were collected. An email to Zogby Analytics requesting more information on the poll’s methodology was not answered.

Redlawsk explains that polling agencies should be fully transparent with their methodologies. “Any poll where they don’t provide detailed methodological information should actually be ignored,” he said.

“Zogby Analytics has a track record of remarkably inaccurate preelection polls,” says Krosnick, noting that those inaccuracies are likely due to nonrandom sampling.

John Zogby, Zukin said, has “a poor reputation” in the scientific community. He described Zogby as “a marketer, and very good self-promoter, who has done some very poor work in the past.”​

How Scientific Are Donald Trump’s Favorite Polls? - The Atlantic

 

[MACAULAY]

Real Clear Politics divides the House races into basically 3 categories---Likely/Lean Democrat/Socialist; same for Republican; and Toss up.

Democrats are just ahead in Likely/Lean---205 to 201 with 29 Toss-Ups.

But within the Toss-Ups, if you look at each race, all but 9 have some sort of poll showing one side or the other up by 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 points---and if you add them into the side of whoever us up in a particular poll---no matter how close and no matter how old the poll----you get a 213 to 213 TIE---with only 9 votes left as Toss-Ups because of no Polls run.

Interpreting this is risky. On the one hand, the Democrats have billionaires, including Bat-Shit Crazy billionaire Tom Steyer throwing massive amounts of money at all of the close races to try to get Trump and Kavanaugh Impeached. They want to see really fucked up Loons like Nadler and Schiff with subpoena power--(not that it did the Pussy Republicans any good.)

On the other hand, agood number of the polls relied on to come up with the classifications of each race--are not really polls---they are mere extensions of the propaganda arm of the Democrat/Socialist Party---as was the case in 2016. They are not trying to accurately Predict an outcome---they are trying to Control an outcome.

Too close to call as of 10/14/2018.

 

[DrLove]

More on "Lefty Zogby" LoL

The most important reason for Zogby's popularity is that his polls make Republicans feel good. Conservatives clutched at his accurate prediction of the 1996 race because it seemed to show that Clinton wasn't so popular after all. Since then, Zogby's numbers have usually shown Republicans doing better than they do in other polls. My hunch is that Zogby's method of determining who's a "likely voter" emphasizes low-turnout elections, especially ones in which Republicans are disproportionately able to mobilize their base. That allows him to notice some Republican upsets that other pollsters miss. But it also sometimes leads him astray, as it did in the D'Amato-Schumer race.​

The Cult of Zogby
The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again

 

[deanrd]

I believe that a blue wave is definitely coming. But I believe it’s coming in 2020. More than 50 Senate seats will be up for election and more than 30 of them are Republican.
Republican support for Trump is at an all-time high. But the Republican Party has been shrinking since he was elected. More women showed up to protest him then people that showed up at his inauguration.

The real question Here is why wont Hispanics vote? Trump calls them rapist. He refused to help in Puerto Rico and even threw paper towels at them in a disgusting display of arrogance and lack of empathy.

I suspect at some point Hispanics are going to see that Trump is their enemy and Republicans hate them, not as much as they hate gays and blacks, but hate them nonetheless and that will eventually motivate them.