Numbers as early as they get

[RandomVariable]

Early voting started February 18th in Texas, Cameron County in particular. In Cameron County the unofficial count as of Thursday, February 20th, 3,896 voters have voted, 3,412 registered Democrat, and 484 registered Republican (1). Now one might say, “Less than 4,000 voters, two weeks from the primary election, so what?” Maybe nothing, maybe a whole lot. First let's look at the demographics of Cameron County. It is a poor county with about 34% below the poverty line, it is a young county with 88% below the age of 65, it is a Hispanic county with 88% Hispanic, and it is a home owner's county with 69% home owners (2). With a demographic such as this one might assume the county votes Democratic. It is true that federal, state, and local races usually go to Democrats (3). But it is not quite as simple as that. In 2004 Cameron county was the only county in Texas which gave Bush/Cheney a local majority of 50.32 (3).

So far, however, we have learned little. We know early voter turnout might be high. Cameron County has a traditionally Democratic demographic but will also give a Republican a majority on occasion. Perhaps some more numbers will put these facts in better context. In December 2012 there were 170,000 registered voters (4). Of the 170,000 eligible voters about 4,000 voters, 2.4% of the voters, have already voted with still two weeks until the primary election (1). In the election year of 2012 the total number of Cameron County primary voters were 21,814 voters, 13% (4). If the total voter turn out for this primary is the same as last then 1/5 of the voters have turned up to vote in first three days of early voting. A more recent vote was for the 2013 Constitutional Amendment Election where approximately 5,500 Cameron County voters passed 9 propositions (6). Proposition 1 and 4 gave spouses of fallen soldiers and disabled veterans full or partial property tax exemptions on homes donated to them through charities (7). It should be noted that one can only vote on one's own party's ballot in a primary. Copies of the Texas primary ballots can be download from the state's Elections Division's website (5).

While trying not to read too much into this there is a strong possibility that Republicans are going to have a difficult time with early voters, young voters, Hispanic voters, possibility home owners, and just possibly female voters, Cameron County is 51.8% female (2) .

Thanks for reading.


(1) Nearly 4k early votes cast in Primaries » San Benito News
(2) Texas Elections: Voters resources
(3) Cameron County voters keep Democratic loyalties - Local News - The Brownsville Herald
(4) Low voter turnout in Cameron County - Local News – ValleyMorningStar
(5) About the Elections Division
(6) 2013 Constitutional Amendment Election Results | The Texas Tribune
(7) Woman concerned with 0.03 percent voter turnout in Cameron County : News : ValleyCentral.com

Not used reference but is a very beautifully told history of Cameron Country.
CAMERON COUNTY | The Handbook of Texas Online| Texas State Historical Association (TSHA)

 

[RandomVariable]

Hey all you Texas knowledgeable board members, got a question for ya. I am compiling some numbers from last night's Texas Primaries. I am doing both parties through a some cycles back, probably 2006-2014, Presidential total or Governor total (for the race, not by candidate) based on which 2 years it is. I am going to include about half a dozen counties or so. I know very little about Texas so I could use some suggestions as to which counties to include. Cameron of course since that is what the tread started with but other than that what? It is just cut and paste so I should finish up tonight.

 

[william the wie]

Just Lurking again. Dallas and Ft. Worth are counties.

 

[BGriffin]

Republicans are going to have a difficult time with early voters, young voters

why?

 

[william the wie]

Republicans are going to have a difficult time with early voters, young voters

why?

Indeed, Obama suspended the individual mandate so he wouldn't have to veto the house bill that does the same thing or throw away all hope of limiting senate losses by letting Harry Reid do the heavy lifting.

 

[RandomVariable]

Just Lurking again. Dallas and Ft. Worth are counties.

Lurking finally pays off. I have not really looked over this. I don't know if it has any value but I figure in randomly looking at data in a variety of ways a pattern might start to appear, 49 primaries to go. I might make a comment or two about the graph tomorrow. The data is from the state election site, https://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/. Since I am familiar with that data and the site and a little handy with spreadsheets I would be open to suggestions for other data analyses. Some of the candidate data caught my eye I would like of like to look at some more.

(I should have titled the chart)

Texas Primary Totals 2006-2014

 

[longknife]

Texas primary turnout smashes 2010 levels – Wendy Davis is toast

The Texas primary turnout smashed the voter turnout of 2010 during the conservative ‘wave.’ What we can tell from the Texas primary voter turnout is that Wendy Davis has about a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the Texas gubernatorial election this coming November. Not only did Abortion Barbie Wendy Davis get nearly 100,000 less votes in the Democrat primary than 2010 challenger Bill White did, she couldn’t even capture 80% of the Democrat vote. Davis even lost a few counties to Democrat no-name challenger Ray Madrigal. But that’s not the only bad news for Abortion Barbie Wendy Davis. While Democrat turnout was much lower than the 2010 primary, Republican turnout skyrocketed. Greg Abbott received 1.2 million votes. Contrast that with Rick Perry in 2010 who only got about 750,000.

Not certain just what this site is but it seems to have legitimate links and data @ Texas primary turnout smashes 2010 levels Wendy Davis toast