I finally found the information needed to calculate the COVID-19 case death rate among people aged 64 and below who had no serious preexisting health conditions (i.e., they were not medically ill). This is crucial because it gives us a very good picture of the risk that COVID-19 poses to most Americans, and that risk is far below what the reported case death rate indicates.
As of this morning, the reported U.S. COVID-19 case death rate is 5.67% (50,243 deaths out of 886,709 cases). We know the case death rate is lower than this because we know we have had far more cases than have been reported. We also know that a number of deaths have been reported as COVID-19 deaths even though COVID-19 was not the actual cause of death.
In any event, let us now look at the case death rate among people aged 64 and below who had no serious underlying health conditions. This is important information to know because right around 83% of Americans are aged 64 and below.
We can do this by examining the COVID-19 numbers from New York City published by the city’s health department. Keep in mind that NYC’s population of 8.4 million is larger than that of most states. In fact, NYC’s population is larger than, or comparable to, the population of some countries, including Norway, Israel, Switzerland, and Finland. So NYC provides a very large and informative sample size. The numbers below come from this morning’s updated COVID-19 reports on the NYC health department’s COVID-19 data website.
Below are the case death rates in NYC by age group among people aged 64 and below who were not medically ill. Please be advised that I am only excluding the medically ill whose preexisting conditions were known, and that therefore these numbers *include* “underlying conditions unknown” deaths.
AGE ---- CASE DEATH RATE
NO UNDERLYING CONDITIONS OR UNDERLYING CONDITIONS UNKNOWN
00-17 ---- 0.000% (0 deaths out of 2,961 cases)
18-44 ---- 0.161% (84 deaths out of 52,380 cases)
45-64 ---- 0.681% (355 deaths out of 51,998 cases)
A case death rate of 0.681% equals a case survival rate of 99.319%. A case death rate of 0.161% equals a case survival rate of 99.839%. These numbers make a powerful case for ending our lockdowns and for adopting a much more moderate, targeted approach in dealing with COVID-19.
Furthermore, keep in mind that there is growing evidence that NYC’s number of cases, like our national number of cases, has been substantially under-reported. A recent study in New York state, released yesterday and cited by the governor, concluded that the state’s number of cases is actually nearly 10 times higher than the officially reported number. Obviously, if this is true, it means the case death rates are far lower than what our current numbers show.
What do the case death rates look like if we exclude “underlying conditions unknown” deaths? They are as follows:
AGE ---- CASE DEATH RATE
NO UNDERLYING CONDITIONS
00-17 ---- 0.0000% (0 deaths out of 2,961 cases)
18-44 ---- 0.0135% (9 deaths out of 52,380 cases)
45-64 ---- 0.0905% (47 deaths out of 51,998 cases)
If anyone wants to check these numbers, here is the link to the NYC health department’s COVID-19 data website:
As of this morning, the reported U.S. COVID-19 case death rate is 5.67% (50,243 deaths out of 886,709 cases). We know the case death rate is lower than this because we know we have had far more cases than have been reported. We also know that a number of deaths have been reported as COVID-19 deaths even though COVID-19 was not the actual cause of death.
In any event, let us now look at the case death rate among people aged 64 and below who had no serious underlying health conditions. This is important information to know because right around 83% of Americans are aged 64 and below.
We can do this by examining the COVID-19 numbers from New York City published by the city’s health department. Keep in mind that NYC’s population of 8.4 million is larger than that of most states. In fact, NYC’s population is larger than, or comparable to, the population of some countries, including Norway, Israel, Switzerland, and Finland. So NYC provides a very large and informative sample size. The numbers below come from this morning’s updated COVID-19 reports on the NYC health department’s COVID-19 data website.
Below are the case death rates in NYC by age group among people aged 64 and below who were not medically ill. Please be advised that I am only excluding the medically ill whose preexisting conditions were known, and that therefore these numbers *include* “underlying conditions unknown” deaths.
AGE ---- CASE DEATH RATE
NO UNDERLYING CONDITIONS OR UNDERLYING CONDITIONS UNKNOWN
00-17 ---- 0.000% (0 deaths out of 2,961 cases)
18-44 ---- 0.161% (84 deaths out of 52,380 cases)
45-64 ---- 0.681% (355 deaths out of 51,998 cases)
A case death rate of 0.681% equals a case survival rate of 99.319%. A case death rate of 0.161% equals a case survival rate of 99.839%. These numbers make a powerful case for ending our lockdowns and for adopting a much more moderate, targeted approach in dealing with COVID-19.
Furthermore, keep in mind that there is growing evidence that NYC’s number of cases, like our national number of cases, has been substantially under-reported. A recent study in New York state, released yesterday and cited by the governor, concluded that the state’s number of cases is actually nearly 10 times higher than the officially reported number. Obviously, if this is true, it means the case death rates are far lower than what our current numbers show.
What do the case death rates look like if we exclude “underlying conditions unknown” deaths? They are as follows:
AGE ---- CASE DEATH RATE
NO UNDERLYING CONDITIONS
00-17 ---- 0.0000% (0 deaths out of 2,961 cases)
18-44 ---- 0.0135% (9 deaths out of 52,380 cases)
45-64 ---- 0.0905% (47 deaths out of 51,998 cases)
If anyone wants to check these numbers, here is the link to the NYC health department’s COVID-19 data website:
COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health
www1.nyc.gov
