Obama: Be Prepared for Global Warming Spawned Super Hurricanes

I just beat these knuckleheads brains in with Post # 76!!!:2up:

So much winning.........:eusa_clap:

When you place things in historical context, the AGW folks always crash and burn!! Its a brautiful thing!:coffee:
 
Deadliest World Tropical Cyclones | Weather Underground


And I only copied the top 20 on the list.


Look at the dates..............:eusa_dance::eusa_dance:


Alarmist fear mongering clearly ghey........they pull this phony shit all the time!!:spinner: And always exposed and publically humiliated by the climate skeptics in here!!!

That's impressive. I mean, your oblivious self-congratulation.

Of course, if only those folks in, say, 1584 or 1839 had had their satellites at the ready so as to be able to warn their population of that impending hurricane or typhoon. They could have urged them to seek shelter on higher ground.

Oh, and while you are at it, name the goof who stated there were no hurricanes or typhoons with devastating death tolls prior to the onset of AGW. And, you know what, you should be ashamed of yourself for having your puerile victory dance on the bodies of the roughly three million dead you mentioned in your monumentally stupid non-argument.
 
Crick didn't demonstrate shit because he clings to the worse science website on the web for his info.. Ain't even close to plots of REAL data. See my previous post.

And Yes -- that Trenberth.. Doesn't matter if it assumes EQUILIBRIUM. Because even at equilibrium, A LOT of the forcing power goes into storage. He even took liberties with the term "Energy" because w/m2 is POWER not energy. If you never account for it in an equilibrium snapshot -- it never goes into the ocean. SO -- it would never INCREASE.. But Lo and Behold his explanation circa 2011 for "the hiatus" found a BUNCH of Energy storage in the deep oceans that simply snuck right in without accounting on his "energy budget"..

YET --- this genius managed to balance out 1000s of Watts and find EXACTLY the GW 0.8% or so he was expecting to find in all those GROSS estimates of Power flows. It was literally a God-like moment to pull the EXACTLY expected numbers out of that "envelope" calculation. Even tho 10 yrs or so later -- he finds he missed an "equilibrium imbalance" of a considerable amount due to neglecting the LARGEST pool of global warmth on the planet.

Strange he got the right answer ---- huh???

And if doubt it was an envelope calculation -- Go fetch me the EXACT Global land and ocean IR BlackBody radiation numbers... At least to less than 0.8% precision..


Now who did I need to talk to understand this elementary stuff??? Some of us ARE scientists and can browse a Scientific American with topics outside our immediate day to day work...

Crick demonstrated his point just fine. You don't know what a 10-year running average is.

Of course, in a system in equilibrium, energy/radiation-in equals energy/radiation-out, both at surface and TOA levels, and so, in sum nothing goes into storage. You still haven't read, let alone understood the 1997 paper.

But then, you seamlessly move on to dismiss another paper you probably also have neither read nor understood, and which you, cautiously, neither name nor quote nor link to. Of course, Trenberth, being a renowned scientist and all that, didn't miss and suddenly discover the ocean's energy storage capacity. That's just your silly bluster and Heartland spin on discoveries that inconvenience the denialist ilk. But the bluster you do really well.

Let's ignore the ad homs and get to the point. I TOLD you why it's dishonest to USE a 10 year running average on that data and why the plot was a joke because of pointing at points and calling therm an average. But the LARGER POINT is --- It looks NOTHING like the NOAA data. Care to explain WHY?

I already TOLD you why. And instead you attack me.. YOU are very susceptible to abuse by "scientific authority".. Even if it's 2 former cartoonists running a GW expert site.

And you never addressed the MONUMENTAL coincidence that Trenberth balanced his crude Energy diagram to 0.8% in order to find the GW "excess"... Exactly the 1.6W/m2 that he EXPECTED... But then 10 years later, when he's forced to come up with an excuse for the warming pause claims that 90% of the excess went into Ocean Storage. Which MEANS he left out that consideration in total and did not conveniently find a GW excess in the Energy balance.

And WORSE --- his "Oceans Ate the Warming" mini-paper (never published the full study) shows that that the oceans have been "eating" heat at the SAME RATE since the 1960s.. Which DID NOTHING to explain the sudden and prolonged "pause" at the beginning of the 20th Century..

Please constrain your responses to what YOU actually KNOW about my :"skeptical views" or my grasp of science. Because so far -- I haven't seen a single thing that indicates you even UNDERSTAND my posts...
 
Wasn't Sandy 2012?







Yes. And when the storm came ashore it was barely a Cat 1. If you want to see some truly devastating hurricanes I suggest you go back to the 1950's and 1960's for some real doozies. You idiots are all alike you bleat these warnings about impending doom and ignore the simple fact that the storms of today are much, much less powerful than those from the past. If you want to read about a truly epic storm I suggest you look up the Great Flood of 1862 which struck the west coast of the USA and turned the entire Central Valley of California, all 300 miles of it, into a lake. The storm extended as far east as Colorado and impacted the entire west coast.

Your supposed facts simply are not that compelling in light of actual history.
sandy_winds.png

katrina_winds.png

Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy’s winds (top), on October 28, 2012, when Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 mph (this ocean surface wind data is from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2.) Hurricane Katrina’s winds (bottom) on August 28, 2005, when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 175 mph (data taken by a radar scatterometer on NASA’s defunct QuickSCAT satellite.) In both maps, wind speeds above 65 kilometers (40 miles) per hour are yellow; above 80 kph (50 mph) are orange; and above 95 kph (60 mph) are dark red. The most noticeable difference is the extent of the strong wind fields. For Katrina, winds over 65 kilometers per hour stretched about 500 kilometers (300 miles) from edge to edge. For Sandy, winds of that intensity spanned an region of ocean three times as great--1,500 kilometers (900 miles). Katrina was able to generate a record-height storm surge over a small area of the Mississippi coast. Sandy generated a lower but highly destructive storm surge over a much larger area, due to the storm's weaker winds but much larger size. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Sandy's huge size: freak of nature or climate change? | Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Are we likely to see more such storms in the future?
Global warming theory (Emanuel, 2005) predicts that a 2°C (3.6°F) increase in ocean temperatures should cause an increase in the peak winds of the strongest hurricanes of about about 10%. Furthermore, warmer ocean temperatures are expected to cause hurricanes to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to computer modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). However, there has been no published work describing how hurricane size may change with warmer oceans in a future climate. We've seen an unusual number of Atlantic hurricanes with large size in recent years, but we currently have no theoretical or computer modeling simulations that can explain why this is so, or if we might see more storms like this in the future. However, we've seen significant and unprecedented changes to our atmosphere in recent decades, due to our emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide. The laws of physics demand that the atmosphere must respond. Atmospheric circulation patterns that control extreme weather events must change, and we should expect extreme storms to change in character, frequency, and intensity as a result--and not always in the ways our computer models may predict. We have pushed our climate system to a fundamentally new, higher-energy state where more heat and moisture is available to power stronger storms, and we should be concerned about the possibility that Hurricane Sandy's freak size and power were partially due to human-caused climate change.

Haven't seen a comparison of actual energy of each storm, but would imagine that Sandy was larger than Katrina due to it's size and duration.

The pseudo-color scale used above HIDES the peak wind values. The color peaks at 60mph and above. Since the author goes into the required GW disaster homage at the end --- I can only surmise that he selected those 2 particular charts for deceptive reasons and NOT just to compare size. Which could have been done on straight visual band clouds.

We should all agree that winds BELOW 60mph should NEVER be causing massive structural damage. And if they ARE --- they indicate major systemic infrastructure design flaws. And comparing to Katrina to Sandy just attempts to BURY that distinction. Some folks are desperate enough for GW evidence to attempt to do just that.
 
And when someone tell you that they project 20% more precipt in storms because of a UNIFORM 2deg rise in troposphere temps -- they are leaving out the important part that ANY storm --- tropical or otherwise -- requires a DRY LINE to feed on. This is set-up by wind differentials and isobars,, NOT JUST by a UNIFORM moisture increase in the air.. So to a THUNDERSTORM on land ---- it's got much more access to dry line feeders than a tropical storm because of evap from warmer waters..
 
And when someone tell you that they project 20% more precipt in storms because of a UNIFORM 2deg rise in troposphere temps -- they are leaving out the important part that ANY storm --- tropical or otherwise -- requires a DRY LINE to feed on. This is set-up by wind differentials and isobars,, NOT JUST by a UNIFORM moisture increase in the air.. So to a THUNDERSTORM on land ---- it's got much more access to dry line feeders than a tropical storm because of evap from warmer waters..







There you go pointing out facts to these loons. Facts don't matter to them as I have repeatedly said. They have "faith".
 
Strange he got the right answer ---- huh???

And if doubt it was an envelope calculation -- Go fetch me the EXACT Global land and ocean IR BlackBody radiation numbers... At least to less than 0.8% precision..

Yeah, things are getting worse. I think I may have found the latter Trenberth paper (2009) you found so amazing (but most likely have not read, much less understood). The earth's surface's blackbody radiation is not representative of the earth's energy imbalance. That balance is measured at the TOA, as a result of the difference between the energy taken in from the sun and the energy radiated out.

The TOA energy imbalance can probably be most accurately determined from climate models and is estimated to be 0.85 ±0.15 W m−2 by Hansen et al. (2005) and is supported by estimated recent changes in ocean heat content (Willis et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005).​

As that latter paper was also one that concerned itself with the earth's major energy fluxes (like the previous, simpler one of 1997), it did not try, and did not magically find, an imbalance of 0.85 ±0.15 W m−2; rather, that was a figure they found (and deemed accurate) in Hanson et al. (2005). As a wise man once cracked, "Knowledge is your friend."

Don't know where you scavenged all that partial insight from -- but it's seriously lacking if you don't recognize that the MAJORITY of IR exchange that the Earth is bleeding is from Black Body radiation. .OR that all of the atmospheric INTERNALS that Trenberth BALANCED -- such as convection and clouds and pure conduction have NOTHING to do with validating the NET exchange at TOA.... If ya missed all that -- you missed a lot.

You need to DISCUSS more and attack less... OR --- we're gonna need better "warmers".. :biggrin:
 
And you never addressed the MONUMENTAL coincidence that Trenberth balanced his crude Energy diagram to 0.8% in order to find the GW "excess"...

You haven't provided a link to that ominous paper, and so for now we have your unsupported but bold assertion, which is not worth a flee's fart in the wind, laced with your contempt for papers you didn't read. Why don't you actually debate, since you otherwise insist others do?
 
And you never addressed the MONUMENTAL coincidence that Trenberth balanced his crude Energy diagram to 0.8% in order to find the GW "excess"...

You haven't provided a link to that ominous paper, and so for now we have your unsupported but bold assertion, which is not worth a flee's fart in the wind, laced with your contempt for papers you didn't read. Why don't you actually debate, since you otherwise insist others do?

Why should I link it? You claimed you understood every BIT of it and were lecturing me because I didn't. One of EASIEST papers to find in the entire world.. Quit fucking with me..

From my work in academic research -- ONE thing I'm certain of OldieEuro -- is that scientists OUGHT to and DO pay more attention to SKEPTICAL points and challenges, than they do to CONFIRMATIONAL papers and comments. Something that the peanut gallery "the science is settled" folks (know any?) just don't understand.
 
And you never addressed the MONUMENTAL coincidence that Trenberth balanced his crude Energy diagram to 0.8% in order to find the GW "excess"...

You haven't provided a link to that ominous paper, and so for now we have your unsupported but bold assertion, which is not worth a flee's fart in the wind, laced with your contempt for papers you didn't read. Why don't you actually debate, since you otherwise insist others do?

Why should I link it? You claimed you understood every BIT of it and were lecturing me because I didn't. One of EASIEST papers to find in the entire world.. Quit fucking with me..

From my work in academic research -- ONE thing I'm certain of OldieEuro -- is that scientists OUGHT to and DO pay more attention to SKEPTICAL points and challenges, than they do to CONFIRMATIONAL papers and comments. Something that the peanut gallery "the science is settled" folks (know any?) just don't understand.


FCT, you are gaining a strong reputation for avoiding debate.
 
Deadliest World Tropical Cyclones | Weather Underground


And I only copied the top 20 on the list.


Look at the dates..............:eusa_dance::eusa_dance:


Alarmist fear mongering clearly ghey........they pull this phony shit all the time!!:spinner: And always exposed and publically humiliated by the climate skeptics in here!!!

That's impressive. I mean, your oblivious self-congratulation.

Of course, if only those folks in, say, 1584 or 1839 had had their satellites at the ready so as to be able to warn their population of that impending hurricane or typhoon. They could have urged them to seek shelter on higher ground.

Oh, and while you are at it, name the goof who stated there were no hurricanes or typhoons with devastating death tolls prior to the onset of AGW. And, you know what, you should be ashamed of yourself for having your puerile victory dance on the bodies of the roughly three million dead you mentioned in your monumentally stupid non-argument.



s0n.....you're what is known as an emotional hemophiliac.( don't sweat it......most progressives are :bye1: )

And I do victory dances in here every day as a matter of fact......because at the end of the day, I win the most important argument. The only argument that matters, which is......where is the science mattering in the real world?

Its not!!!:coffee:


[URL=http://s42.photobucket.com/user/baldaltima/media/EIA-annual-outlook-2011-2040_2.png.html][/URL]




Oh.......and I guess Im the asshole here!! Typhoons back in the 1800's and before were only about as big as a dirt devil in the Pacific with some rain!! What was I thinking?!!:eusa_dance:
 
It was unusually destructive because where it struck is an area unprepared for hurricanes.

Funny, isn't it? Hurricanes suddenly showing up in places where such is not supposed to happen, at least nothing of that magnitude. One would expect that could be a learning experience above and beyond having a go at those dupes who relied upon "isn't supposed to happen" for the safety of their homes. Yet, in the service of climate change denialism, that cannot be allowed to happen.

And they whine about it because they got away with it for so long. Now they know what the risk looks like.

Yeah, the blame-the-victims game never really goes out of fashion.

That doesn't fly.. Knowledge is your friend.
You're right.....knowledge is our friend.....it sure ain't yours, fecalhead.

The topic of the thread is 'global warming spawned super hurricanes', numbnuts, not ancient storms, not super-storm Sandy, not poorly considered coastal planning and development. Your denier cult tactics of distraction and diversion are well known and won't "fly".

Hurricane Patricia (Spanish pronunciation: [paˈtɾisia]) was the second-most intense tropical cyclone on record worldwide, with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg).[1] Originating from a sprawling disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, south of Mexico, in mid-October 2015, Patricia was first classified a tropical depression on October 20. Initial development was slow, with only modest strengthening within the first day of its classification. The system later became a tropical storm and was named Patricia, the twenty-fourth named storm of the annual hurricane season. Exceptionally favorable environmental conditions fueled explosive intensification on October 22. A well-defined eye developed within an intense central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours—a near-record pace. On October 23, the hurricane achieved its record peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 215 mph (345 km/h).[nb 1][nb 2]
This made it the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, and the strongest globally in terms of 1-minute maximum sustained winds.




I AM blaming the victims.
You poor crackpot asswipe.


not ancient storms,


What a fruit cake ...

Good thing Indians stopped drilling for oil.



.
 
And you never addressed the MONUMENTAL coincidence that Trenberth balanced his crude Energy diagram to 0.8% in order to find the GW "excess"...

You haven't provided a link to that ominous paper, and so for now we have your unsupported but bold assertion, which is not worth a flee's fart in the wind, laced with your contempt for papers you didn't read. Why don't you actually debate, since you otherwise insist others do?

Why should I link it? You claimed you understood every BIT of it and were lecturing me because I didn't. One of EASIEST papers to find in the entire world.. Quit fucking with me..

From my work in academic research -- ONE thing I'm certain of OldieEuro -- is that scientists OUGHT to and DO pay more attention to SKEPTICAL points and challenges, than they do to CONFIRMATIONAL papers and comments. Something that the peanut gallery "the science is settled" folks (know any?) just don't understand.


FCT, you are gaining a strong reputation for avoiding debate.

SERIOUSLY??? Who am I debating? If I thought this guy was even working at debate --- it would matter. He's asking for a link to a paper and at the same time TELLING me I don't know what the shit is in there.

So how does HE ?? ------------------ If he's never read the paper and needs a link... You see how logic and reason works to keep you from wasting time?? No -- I guess you don't... Any 4th grader could find that Trenberth paper. It's the first page of Binging Trenberth and Energy Balance paper.

I know YOU could do it -- so how hard is it????
 
It was unusually destructive because where it struck is an area unprepared for hurricanes.

Funny, isn't it? Hurricanes suddenly showing up in places where such is not supposed to happen, at least nothing of that magnitude. One would expect that could be a learning experience above and beyond having a go at those dupes who relied upon "isn't supposed to happen" for the safety of their homes. Yet, in the service of climate change denialism, that cannot be allowed to happen.

And they whine about it because they got away with it for so long. Now they know what the risk looks like.

Yeah, the blame-the-victims game never really goes out of fashion.

That doesn't fly.. Knowledge is your friend.
You're right.....knowledge is our friend.....it sure ain't yours, fecalhead.

The topic of the thread is 'global warming spawned super hurricanes', numbnuts, not ancient storms, not super-storm Sandy, not poorly considered coastal planning and development. Your denier cult tactics of distraction and diversion are well known and won't "fly".

Hurricane Patricia (Spanish pronunciation: [paˈtɾisia]) was the second-most intense tropical cyclone on record worldwide, with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg).[1] Originating from a sprawling disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, south of Mexico, in mid-October 2015, Patricia was first classified a tropical depression on October 20. Initial development was slow, with only modest strengthening within the first day of its classification. The system later became a tropical storm and was named Patricia, the twenty-fourth named storm of the annual hurricane season. Exceptionally favorable environmental conditions fueled explosive intensification on October 22. A well-defined eye developed within an intense central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours—a near-record pace. On October 23, the hurricane achieved its record peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 215 mph (345 km/h).[nb 1][nb 2]
This made it the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, and the strongest globally in terms of 1-minute maximum sustained winds.




I AM blaming the victims.
You poor crackpot asswipe.


not ancient storms,


What a fruit cake ...

Good thing Indians stopped drilling for oil.



.

Another logic and reason sub-par warmer "debater".. If there is no CHANGE in the pattern or intensity of hurricanes to hit NY area ---- then likely GW is no excuse for a VERY ISOLATED recent event. THat's why the Wiki list of almost 80 tropical storms back to the 1200/1300s is significant.. See how that works.. Logic and reason again..

No --- you don't either. Because you are pushing "Local Warming" as the only flotsam to cling to when this type of event IS NOT occurring globally... But I expect that of you TinkerBelle..
 
And you never addressed the MONUMENTAL coincidence that Trenberth balanced his crude Energy diagram to 0.8% in order to find the GW "excess"...

You haven't provided a link to that ominous paper, and so for now we have your unsupported but bold assertion, which is not worth a flee's fart in the wind, laced with your contempt for papers you didn't read. Why don't you actually debate, since you otherwise insist others do?

Why should I link it? You claimed you understood every BIT of it and were lecturing me because I didn't. One of EASIEST papers to find in the entire world.. Quit fucking with me..

From my work in academic research -- ONE thing I'm certain of OldieEuro -- is that scientists OUGHT to and DO pay more attention to SKEPTICAL points and challenges, than they do to CONFIRMATIONAL papers and comments. Something that the peanut gallery "the science is settled" folks (know any?) just don't understand.


FCT, you are gaining a strong reputation for avoiding debate.





Soooooo, what does that mean you do? Avoid thinking entirely? Seems the most accurate.
 
In the delusional world of the gullible denier cult retards, in their own pitiful excuses for minds, they are all, in spite of being ignorant, uneducated idiots, more than competent to critique and dismiss the scientific research on global warming and its consequent climate changes performed by the tens of thousands of PhD level climate scientists around the planet, who are generally in a high degree of agreement. Fecalhead is a good example of these Dunning-Kruger Effect afflicted, pseudo-science clowns.

In the real world of actual science.....

Record warm oceans have spawned scary slate of monster tropical cyclones
The Washington Post
By Jason Samenow
April 20, 2016
(excerpts)
In the past six months, the Earth has witnessed several of the freakiest, most intense storms in recorded history. Spurred by the highest ocean temperatures observed to date, record-breaking tropical cyclones — the class of storms that includes hurricanes and typhoons — have explosively developed in three regions: the northeast Pacific Ocean, the south Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. These storms may be a harbinger of increasingly severe tropical cyclones in future decades as the Earth continues warming.

The most recent vicious storm, Tropical Cyclone Fantala, attained peak winds of 173 mph north of Madagascar this past weekend.
According to meteorologist Bob Henson at Weather Underground, it became the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Indian Ocean. Just two months before Fantala, Tropical Cyclone Winston became the fiercest storm on record in the South Pacific, with peak winds of 185 mph. This storm devastated parts of Fiji. And four months before Winston, Hurricane Patricia (October 2015) became the strongest storm measured to date by the National Hurricane Center in the Northeast Pacific. Its peak winds reached 215 mph before it slammed into Mexico’s west coast. Patricia was just one of 25 Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in 2015 in the Northern Hemisphere, the most on record by far. This is not to mention November 2013’s Super Typhoon Haiyan, which became the strongest tropical cyclone in the northwest Pacific (and the Eastern Hemisphere) based on wind speed. Its 195 mph maximum sustained winds devastated parts of the Philippines.

(Read more at website)
 
Wasn't Sandy 2012?
Sandy was Cat 1, barely a hurricane when it hit the US.

Sounded like quite an event with a sizable economic impact. I’m not sure arbitrary storm categorizations by meteorologists indicate a given universal level of destruction to all locations, but whatever. Has nothing to do with the thread’s purpose.
Sandy did so much damage because the area it hit was NOT prepared for hurricanes they normally hit the Carolina's or the rest of the south not New Jersey or New York.
 
Wasn't Sandy 2012?
Sandy was Cat 1, barely a hurricane when it hit the US.

Sounded like quite an event with a sizable economic impact. I’m not sure arbitrary storm categorizations by meteorologists indicate a given universal level of destruction to all locations, but whatever. Has nothing to do with the thread’s purpose.
Sandy did so much damage because the area it hit was NOT prepared for hurricanes they normally hit the Carolina's or the rest of the south not New Jersey or New York.

How do you explain away this then....

Record warm oceans have spawned scary slate of monster tropical cyclones
The Washington Post
By Jason Samenow
April 20, 2016
(excerpts)
In the past six months, the Earth has witnessed several of the freakiest, most intense storms in recorded history. Spurred by the highest ocean temperatures observed to date, record-breaking tropical cyclones — the class of storms that includes hurricanes and typhoons — have explosively developed in three regions: the northeast Pacific Ocean, the south Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. These storms may be a harbinger of increasingly severe tropical cyclones in future decades as the Earth continues warming.

...Hurricane Patricia (October 2015) became the strongest storm measured to date by the National Hurricane Center in the Northeast Pacific. Its peak winds reached 215 mph before it slammed into Mexico’s west coast. Patricia was just one of 25 Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in 2015 in the NorthernHemisphere, the most on record by far.

(Read more at website)
 

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