Statistikhengst
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There were seven major polls released between Sunday, August 16th and yesterday, August 20th, 2015.
I am going to do this by category. The OP will first be about nomination polling R and D.
Posting no. 2 will be the presidential matchups.
Posting no. 3 will be fav/for some of the candidates, Pres. Obama's approval ratings and the Gallup fav numbers for the GOPers following their first debate.
This week in polling was not a good week for Hillary Clinton and it was essentially a very good week for Donald Trump, across the board.
FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Fox News Poll: Sanders gains on Clinton
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Trump 25
Carson 12
Cruz 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 6
Walker 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Christie 3
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +13
Morning Consult, released 17.08.2015
Trump Leads GOP Field, Fiorina Rises as Walker Fades - Morning Consult
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
Trump 32
Bush 12
Carson 7
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Cruz 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 4
Christie 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +20
CNN Poll, released 18.08.2015
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/17/rel8a.-.gop.2016.pdf
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0
Trump 24
Bush 13
Carson 8
Walker 7
Rubio 7
Paul 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 5
Christie 4
Cruz 4
Huckabee 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +11
The three national nomination polls all show Trump easily on top.
FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Fox News Poll: Sanders gains on Clinton
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Clinton 49
Sanders 30
Biden 10
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 10
margin: Clinton +19
Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:
Clinton's Lead Slips as Voters Question Email Server Explanations - Morning Consult
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/150803_topline_mc_v3_JW.pdf
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Clinton 50
Sanders 24
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 20
margin: Clinton +26
CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0
Clinton 47
Sanders 29
Biden 14
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 7
margin: Clinton +19
The three DEM nomination polls (national) show Clinton easily on top.
DEM nomination - by state
Florida:
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_StatePRI_DEM_July_28_A4LR.pdf
1,080 DLV, MoE = +/-3.0
officially released 28.07.2015, first published elsewhere 17.08.2015
Clinton 55.1
Sanders 29.1
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 0.7
Chafee 0.2
DN / someone else 13.2
margin: Clinton +26
North Carolina:
PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2
Clinton 55
Sanders 19
O'Malley 2
Chafee 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 15
margin: Clinton +36
Wisconsin:
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MLSP29ToplinesFinal.pdf
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
Clinton 44.4
Sanders 32.2
Biden 11.7
O'Malley 0.6
Webb 0.5
Chafee 0.5
DN / someone else 10.0
margin: Clinton +12.2
Arizona:
Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
Margin: Clinton +22
North Carolina:
PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2
Trump 24
Carson 14
Bush 13
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Walker 6
Huckabee 6
Fiorina 6
Paul 3
Santorum 2
Christie 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +10
Wisconsin:
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MLSP29ToplinesFinal.pdf
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
Walker 25
Carson 13.2
Trump 9.1
Cruz 8.2
Fiorina 7.4
Rubio 7.4
Bush 5.9
Huckabee 3.5
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.1
Jindal 1.5
all others: 1 or less
DN/someone else 10.1
margin: Walker +11.8
Arizona:
MBQF Consulting
POLL: DR. BEN CARSON SURGES INTO SECOND PLACE
787 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5
Margin: Trump +12.8
Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
Margin: Trump +16.9
Illinois:
Victory Research, released 21.08.2015
New Poll Shows Trump Leads GOP Race in Illinois
801 LV, MoE = +/-3.5
Trump 23
Bush 17
Walker 11
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Rubio 5
Cruz 4
Santorum 3
Kasich 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +6
In posting 2: national and state presidential matchups (lots of data, lots of colors)
I am going to do this by category. The OP will first be about nomination polling R and D.
Posting no. 2 will be the presidential matchups.
Posting no. 3 will be fav/for some of the candidates, Pres. Obama's approval ratings and the Gallup fav numbers for the GOPers following their first debate.
This week in polling was not a good week for Hillary Clinton and it was essentially a very good week for Donald Trump, across the board.
GOP NOMINATION - national
FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Fox News Poll: Sanders gains on Clinton
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Trump 25
Carson 12
Cruz 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 6
Walker 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Christie 3
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +13
Morning Consult, released 17.08.2015
Trump Leads GOP Field, Fiorina Rises as Walker Fades - Morning Consult
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
Trump 32
Bush 12
Carson 7
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Cruz 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 4
Christie 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +20
CNN Poll, released 18.08.2015
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/17/rel8a.-.gop.2016.pdf
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0
Trump 24
Bush 13
Carson 8
Walker 7
Rubio 7
Paul 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 5
Christie 4
Cruz 4
Huckabee 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +11
The three national nomination polls all show Trump easily on top.
DEM NOMINATION - national
FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Fox News Poll: Sanders gains on Clinton
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Clinton 49
Sanders 30
Biden 10
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 10
margin: Clinton +19
Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:
Clinton's Lead Slips as Voters Question Email Server Explanations - Morning Consult
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/150803_topline_mc_v3_JW.pdf
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Clinton 50
Sanders 24
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 20
margin: Clinton +26
CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0
Clinton 47
Sanders 29
Biden 14
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 7
margin: Clinton +19
The three DEM nomination polls (national) show Clinton easily on top.
DEM nomination - by state
Florida:
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_StatePRI_DEM_July_28_A4LR.pdf
1,080 DLV, MoE = +/-3.0
officially released 28.07.2015, first published elsewhere 17.08.2015
Clinton 55.1
Sanders 29.1
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 0.7
Chafee 0.2
DN / someone else 13.2
margin: Clinton +26
North Carolina:
PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2
Clinton 55
Sanders 19
O'Malley 2
Chafee 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 15
margin: Clinton +36
Wisconsin:
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MLSP29ToplinesFinal.pdf
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
Clinton 44.4
Sanders 32.2
Biden 11.7
O'Malley 0.6
Webb 0.5
Chafee 0.5
DN / someone else 10.0
margin: Clinton +12.2
Arizona:
Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
Margin: Clinton +22
GOP nomination - by state
North Carolina:
PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2
Trump 24
Carson 14
Bush 13
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Walker 6
Huckabee 6
Fiorina 6
Paul 3
Santorum 2
Christie 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +10
Wisconsin:
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MLSP29ToplinesFinal.pdf
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
Walker 25
Carson 13.2
Trump 9.1
Cruz 8.2
Fiorina 7.4
Rubio 7.4
Bush 5.9
Huckabee 3.5
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.1
Jindal 1.5
all others: 1 or less
DN/someone else 10.1
margin: Walker +11.8
Arizona:
MBQF Consulting
POLL: DR. BEN CARSON SURGES INTO SECOND PLACE
787 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5
Margin: Trump +12.8
Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
Margin: Trump +16.9
Illinois:
Victory Research, released 21.08.2015
New Poll Shows Trump Leads GOP Race in Illinois
801 LV, MoE = +/-3.5
Trump 23
Bush 17
Walker 11
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Rubio 5
Cruz 4
Santorum 3
Kasich 2
all others: 1 or less
margin: Trump +6
In posting 2: national and state presidential matchups (lots of data, lots of colors)
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