Putin’s Partition Plan for Syria

[Sally]

Does anyone here think this is Putin's plan in Syria?

Putin’s Partition Plan for Syria
By HUSSEIN IBISHOCT. 19, 2015


WASHINGTON — Taking advantage of the paralysis of American policy in Syria, Russia’s dramatic escalation of military activity in that country seeks to reorder the strategic landscape of the Middle East.

Few appear to grasp the full scope of what Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, is attempting. This is partly because, in theory, this should be beyond Russia’s capabilities. But Mr. Putin cannily senses an opportunity, at the very least, to restore Russia to the role in the Middle East that it lost in the 1970s.

Russia’s intervention anticipates a resolution of the Syrian conflict through de facto partition. The Reuters news agency reports that, months ago, Iranproposed the joint offensive, now underway, to save the dictatorship of President Bashar al-Assad from imminent collapse. Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ elite Quds Force, is depicted poring over maps of Syria with Russian officials in the Kremlin.

Russian firepower is aimed at securing the larger, western part of the rump Syrian state that is still controlled by Mr. Assad — in particular the air and naval bases near Latakia and Tartus. And aside from forays into northern trouble spots like Aleppo, Iranian and Hezbollah forces will mostlyconcentrate on the lower half of this strip, which runs from the Lebanese border through Qalamoun, up to Damascus, and from there to the port cities and coastal heartland of the Alawites, the Syrian Shiite sect loyal to Mr. Assad.

For all of the talk of combating the Islamic State, Russia’s real aim is to push back rebel groups and secure this ministate. Given what Mr. Assad’s allies are willing to do to salvage this “Little Syria” — compared with the limited intervention being considered by Mr. Putin’s international antagonists — this is probably an achievable goal.

Such a partition of Syria would leave other parts of the country in the hands of nationalist and Islamist rebels, a Kurdish area in the north, perhaps some smaller enclaves and, most ominously, the “caliphate” of the Islamic State in the north and east. Despite Kremlin propaganda, the Islamic State is already among the biggest winners from the Russian intervention.

Continue reading at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/20/opinion/putins-partition-plan-for-syria.html?&_r=0

 

[DarkFury]

If the Russians cover Assad's back he will be able to advance. Russia then can proxy Syria to keep I.S. in check all the while building their own force.

There will be a Syrian controlled Syria and a Russian controlled Syria. Oh and Russia makes money on the weapon sales as well.

 

[Bleipriester]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

 

[DarkFury]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

Putin will make money on the arms sales and his western Syrian bases are secure for at least 50 years. Assad can push his rebels into other countries and force them to deal with the refugee issue.

Those rebels then will turn on the countries they are forced into while Assad has a clear path to extend and upgrade his own army inside his borders.

 

[Bleipriester]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

Putin will make money on the arms sales and his western Syrian bases are secure for at least 50 years. Assad can push his rebels into other countries and force them to deal with the refugee issue.

Those rebels then will turn on the countries they are forced into while Assad has a clear path to extend and upgrade his own army inside his borders.

So Assad pushes the "rebels" to were they came from? Good! May those deal with them who armed and trained them. No, those rebels will come back to Syria as "refugees" or make their way to the global Hartz-Center of Merkel, Germany.

As for the arms sales, Syria is currently not in a good condition to pay large sums. I think, Putin delivers on credit. Syria is a serious partner with almost no debts to anyone in 2011.

 

[DarkFury]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

Putin will make money on the arms sales and his western Syrian bases are secure for at least 50 years. Assad can push his rebels into other countries and force them to deal with the refugee issue.

Those rebels then will turn on the countries they are forced into while Assad has a clear path to extend and upgrade his own army inside his borders.

So Assad pushes the "rebels" to were they came from? Good! May those deal with them who armed and trained them. No, those rebels will come back to Syria as "refugees" or make their way to the global Hartz-Center of Merkel, Germany.

As for the arms sales, Syria is currently not in a good condition to pay large sums. I think, Putin delivers on credit. Syria is a serious partner with almost no debts to anyone in 2011.

It will be credit. Putin will cover Syria on the northern border and western border. So Assad will be pushing rebels east and south.
The stability by Putin on the west and North can allow a power shift of men and equipment better arming existing forces.

Assad SHOULD have full control of ALL of Syria by the first of the year.

 

[Bleipriester]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

Putin will make money on the arms sales and his western Syrian bases are secure for at least 50 years. Assad can push his rebels into other countries and force them to deal with the refugee issue.

Those rebels then will turn on the countries they are forced into while Assad has a clear path to extend and upgrade his own army inside his borders.

So Assad pushes the "rebels" to were they came from? Good! May those deal with them who armed and trained them. No, those rebels will come back to Syria as "refugees" or make their way to the global Hartz-Center of Merkel, Germany.

As for the arms sales, Syria is currently not in a good condition to pay large sums. I think, Putin delivers on credit. Syria is a serious partner with almost no debts to anyone in 2011.

It will be credit. Putin will cover Syria on the northern border and western border. So Assad will be pushing rebels east and south.
The stability by Putin on the west and North can allow a power shift of men and equipment better arming existing forces.

Assad SHOULD have full control of ALL of Syria by the first of the year.

We shall see. The terrorists are obstinate and will probably have to be bombed out in each town and city that is to be liberated. The sooner this is over, the better it is.

 

[DarkFury]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

Putin will make money on the arms sales and his western Syrian bases are secure for at least 50 years. Assad can push his rebels into other countries and force them to deal with the refugee issue.

Those rebels then will turn on the countries they are forced into while Assad has a clear path to extend and upgrade his own army inside his borders.

So Assad pushes the "rebels" to were they came from? Good! May those deal with them who armed and trained them. No, those rebels will come back to Syria as "refugees" or make their way to the global Hartz-Center of Merkel, Germany.

As for the arms sales, Syria is currently not in a good condition to pay large sums. I think, Putin delivers on credit. Syria is a serious partner with almost no debts to anyone in 2011.

It will be credit. Putin will cover Syria on the northern border and western border. So Assad will be pushing rebels east and south.
The stability by Putin on the west and North can allow a power shift of men and equipment better arming existing forces.

Assad SHOULD have full control of ALL of Syria by the first of the year.

We shall see. The terrorists are obstinate and will probably have to be bombed out in each town and city that is to be liberated. The sooner this is over, the better it is.

Putin is not a man who moves slowly as you have seen. You may not have to many buildings left but rebels WILL be dead. He took that section of Ukraine in what? Three days?

And he has held every inch since. And that was in a country that did NOT want him there. This time he has backing. Putin KNOWS Obama is spineless and gutless.

You just have to kill rebels and its over.

 

[Bleipriester]

Putin doesn´t "reorder" something but helps destroying terrorism and reestablishing security and stability.

Putin will make money on the arms sales and his western Syrian bases are secure for at least 50 years. Assad can push his rebels into other countries and force them to deal with the refugee issue.

Those rebels then will turn on the countries they are forced into while Assad has a clear path to extend and upgrade his own army inside his borders.

So Assad pushes the "rebels" to were they came from? Good! May those deal with them who armed and trained them. No, those rebels will come back to Syria as "refugees" or make their way to the global Hartz-Center of Merkel, Germany.

As for the arms sales, Syria is currently not in a good condition to pay large sums. I think, Putin delivers on credit. Syria is a serious partner with almost no debts to anyone in 2011.

It will be credit. Putin will cover Syria on the northern border and western border. So Assad will be pushing rebels east and south.
The stability by Putin on the west and North can allow a power shift of men and equipment better arming existing forces.

Assad SHOULD have full control of ALL of Syria by the first of the year.

We shall see. The terrorists are obstinate and will probably have to be bombed out in each town and city that is to be liberated. The sooner this is over, the better it is.

Putin is not a man who moves slowly as you have seen. You may not have to many buildings left but rebels WILL be dead. He took that section of Ukraine in what? Three days?

And he has held every inch since. And that was in a country that did NOT want him there. This time he has backing. Putin KNOWS Obama is spineless and gutless.

You just have to kill rebels and its over.

The Russian army is the only real power in Europe. Not that other armies couldn´t do something in Europe, but significant amounts of equipment are only located in Belarus and Greece (And Turkey if you count it as Europe). If Russia ever decides to take over Europe there is no force that could seriously resist.

Example: after one short month of criminally bombing Libya, Europe was done:
NATO runs short on some munitions in Libya
British military almost ran out of missiles during war on Libya

 

[waltky]

Assad's future still up in the air...

U.N. endorses Syria peace plan in rare show of unity among big powers
Sat Dec 19, 2015 - The United Nations Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a resolution endorsing an international road map for a Syria peace process, a rare show of unity among major powers on a conflict that has claimed more than a quarter million lives.

The resolution gives a U.N. blessing to a plan negotiated previously in Vienna that calls for a ceasefire, talks between the Syrian government and opposition, and a roughly two-year timeline to create a unity government and hold elections. But the obstacles to ending the nearly five-year civil war remain daunting, with no side in the conflict able to secure a clear military victory. Despite their agreement, the major powers are bitterly divided on who may represent the opposition as well as on the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. "This council is sending a clear message to all concerned that the time is now to stop the killing in Syria and lay the groundwork for a government that the long-suffering people of that battered land can support," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told the 15-nation council after the vote.

The resolution also calls for the U.N. to present the council with options for monitoring a ceasefire within one month. Talks between Syria's government and opposition should begin in early January, the resolution said, though Kerry said mid-to-late January was more likely. It also endorsed the continued battle to defeat Islamic State militants who have seized large swaths of both Syria and neighboring Iraq. It was one of the strongest appeals for peace by the council, divided for years on the issue of Syria's war, since Russia and China began vetoing a series of Western-drafted resolutions on the conflict in October 2011. The resolution came after Moscow and Washington clinched a deal on a text. The two powers have had very different views on what should happen in Syria, where Islamic State militants control considerable territory that Western governments suspect has been a launch pad for attacks on Western nations and Russia.

Kerry made clear that there were still differences on the future of Assad, a close ally of Russia and Iran who Western countries want ousted, as well as on the question of which Syrian opposition groups will have a seat at the table in talks with the government. "We are under no illusions about the obstacles that exist," Kerry said. "There obviously remain sharp differences within the international community, especially about the future of President Assad." The resolution does not address Assad's fate. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said of the resolution: "This is a clear response to attempts to impose a solution from the outside on Syrians on any issues, including those regarding its president."

"CHAMPIONS OF DEMOCRACY"

See also:

U.N. Security Council approves 'road map' to Syria peace; Kerry says 'time is now' to stop civil war
Dec. 18, 2015 - The resolution calls for transitional political talks between government and rebel negotiators to begin Jan. 1 and requires new elections by June 2017.

The 15-member United Nations Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a draft resolution aimed at ending the Syrian Civil War -- now in its fourth year -- through a ceasefire and peace talks between warring factions that could start in just 14 days. The council's full vote on Friday afternoon followed approval by the panel's five permanent members -- the United States, Russia, France, Britain and China -- two hours earlier.

The proposal seeks to join the Syrian government, led by U.S. foe Bashar Hafez al-Assad, and rebel forces for peace talks starting Jan. 1, 2016. It also calls for a ceasefire between Syrian forces and rebel groups. "This council is sending a clear message to all concerned that the time is now to stop the killing in Syria," U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Friday. "This is the first time we have been able to come together at the United Nations, in the Security Council, to embrace a road forward." "Let us proceed with confidence from here, and a determination to end this war, eliminate the terrorist threat, and enable the people of Syria to return safely to their homes" he added.

Negotiators have been meeting in New York this week to try to pass a plan to stop the fighting in Syria, where civil war has devastated the west Asian nation for nearly five years under Assad's rule. Adding to the instability, militants have also aggressively stepped up terror attacks in the country over the last two years. To date, more than a quarter million people have so far died and more than 12 million displaced in the conflicts. The Syrian National Coalition, the main political opponent to Assad, reportedly said the Jan. 1 start date is "unrealistic" and mandated that the cessation of Russian airstrikes also be part of the agreement.

In recent years, the Syrian conflict has further strained diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia -- with Moscow backing Assad and Washington supporting the rebels. At the U.N. level, though, both powers agreed last month to support a resolution to expand the fight against militants -- including those who've gained strongholds and launched waves of attacks in Syria. Friday's resolution marks the first time the two nations have agreed on any type of a political peace plan to end the Syrian Civil War. Previously, Moscow has insisted that any deal allow Assad to remain in power -- a provision deemed unacceptable by Washington. Assad's hold on power in Damascus is only partially addressed by Friday's proposal, which requires new government elections to be held no later than June 2017. The text of the resolution, however, does not specifically state whether Assad, who has never been elected president by his constituents, will be allowed to run.

MORE

 

[aris2chat]

any plans for syria to remain under assad control should consider what he has done to his own people

If the Dead Could Speak

 

[montelatici]

any plans for syria to remain under assad control should consider what he has done to his own people

If the Dead Could Speak

What has he done to his own people that is not from a propaganda site?

 

[montelatici]

In the view of Syrians, the country’s president, Bashar al Assad, and his ally, Iran, have more support than do the forces arrayed against him, according to a public opinion poll taken last summer by a research firm that is working with the US and British governments. [1]

The poll’s findings challenge the idea that Assad has lost legitimacy and that the opposition has broad support.

The survey, conducted by ORB International, a company which specializes in public opinion research in fragile and conflict environments, [2] found that 47 percent of Syrians believe that Assad has a positive influence in Syria, compared to only 35 percent for the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and 26 percent for the Syrian Opposition Coalition.

Bashar Al-Assad Has More Popular Support than the Western-Backed "Opposition": Poll

 

[Roudy]

World | Fri Jun 5, 2015

U.N. council condemns attacks on Syria civilians, barrel bombs
UNITED NATIONS | BY LOUIS CHARBONNEAU

A man holds a baby that survived what activists said was a site hit by a barrel bomb dropped by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the old city of Aleppo June 3, 2015.
REUTERS/ABDALRHMAN ISMAIL

The United Nations Security Council on Friday condemned continued indiscriminate attacks on civilians in Syria, including aerial bombardment and barrel bombings that Western powers say only the government is capable of carrying out.

Last week the U.N. humanitarian chief painted a harrowing portrait of savagery in Syria's civil war, now in its fifth year, and urged the Security Council to take collective action to put an end to the carnage.

The war has killed more than 220,000 people. Of the country's roughly 23 million people, some 12.2 million are in need of humanitarian aid, including 5 million children.

"The members of the Security Council expressed their deep concern at the continued high level of violence in Syria and condemned all violence directed against civilians and civilian infrastructure, including medical facilities," the council said in a statement.

"They expressed outrage at all attacks against civilians, as well as indiscriminate attacks, including those involving shelling and aerial bombardment, such as the use of barrel bombs, which have reportedly been extensively used in recent days in Aleppo," it said.

Western officials blame aerial and barrel bomb attacks on the government.

Several Western council members noted that the unanimously adopted statement had the backing of Russia, which has strongly supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

Russia, backed by China, has vetoed four Security Council resolutions on Syria, three of them threatening the government with sanctions and another calling for referring the war to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for possible war crimes indictments.

The United States wants the council to approve a U.N. investigation to determine who is to blame for chemicals weapons attacks in Syria. Success of this initiative will ultimately depend on Russia, which blames rebels for chemical attacks. Rebels and Western powers blame Assad's forces.

The council also "condemned increased terrorist attacks resulting in numerous casualties and destruction carried out by ISIL (Islamic State), al Nusra Front and other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with al Qaeda."

The Security Council also voiced support for U.N. Syria peace mediator Staffan de Mistura, who has started a new attempt to broker negotiations between rebel groups and the government. Western and Arab officials say they have little hope that a breakthrough is imminent.

Last month, Syria's main political opposition group complained about de Mistura's decision to include Iran, which, like Russia, has been a strong supporter of Assad.



(Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Grant McCool)

 

[Roudy]

Bashar al-Assad implicated in Syria war crimes, says UN

UN inquiry finds 'massive evidence' that president is responsible for crimes against humanity as conflict's death toll hits 126,000

A UN inquiry has found "massive evidence" that the Syrian president, [URL='http://www.theguardian.com/world/bashar-al-assad']Bashar al-Assad, is implicated in war crimes as the latest reported death toll in the country's civil war reached 126,000.[/URL]

Navi Pillay, the UN's human rights chief, said a commission of inquiry into human rights violations in Syria "has produced massive evidence … [of] very serious crimes, war crimes, crimes against humanity" and that "the evidence indicates responsibility at the highest level of government, including the head of state."

The report is the first time the UN body has accused Assaddirectly and it is unclear how it will affect January's Geneva II peace conference to try to end the country's bloody conflict, now in its 33rd month.

Damascus swiftly dismissed Pillay's remarks. "She has been talking nonsense for a long time and we don't listen to her," Faisal Miqdad, the deputy foreign minister, told AP.

In May. Pillay said the conflict in Syria had "become an intolerable affront to the human conscience".

The UN commissioner's statement, reported from Geneva, coincided with the publication of a new death toll of 125,835 for the last 33 months. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), based in the UK, said the dead included 44,381 civilians, including 6,627 children and 4,454 women. The SOHR said at least 27,746 opposition fighters had been killed, among them just over 19,000 civilians who took up arms to fight the Assad regime. The opposition toll also included 2,221 army defectors and 6,261 non-Syrians who joined the rebels.

The figures cover the period from 18 March 2011 – when the Syrian uprising began with protests in the southern city of Deraa – to 1 December 2013.

The UN commission has repeatedly accused the Syrian government, which is supported by Russia and Iran, of crimes against humanity and war crimes. It has said the rebels, who are backed by both western and Arab countries, are also guilty of committing war crimes.

But the four-member panel, headed by the Brazilian Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro and including the former UN war crimes prosecutor, Carla Del Ponte, has never before directly named or accused Assad, who is both Syria's head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Pillay said the names of perpetrators "remain sealed until I am requested to furnish them to credible investigation … It could be a national investigation or international investigation."

Pillay reiterated her call for the case to be handed over to the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague to ensure accountability. But an ICC referral requires the backing of the "big five" permanent members of the UN security council, where Russia and China have blocked any action against the Syrian government and are unlikely to change tack.

The current position of the US, UK and France also means that the war crimes accusations are unlikely to gain traction. Last August's agreement between the US and Russia over securing the disarmament of Syria's chemical weapons has made it a priority for the Geneva II peace conference to be held on schedule on 22 January. Assad, who has promised to send representatives, is unlikely to co-operate if he is facing war crimes charges.

Pillay warned that ongoing efforts to destroy Syria's chemical weapons should not distract from killings with conventional weapons, which have accounted for the vast majority of deaths in the Syrian war. "The scale of viciousness of the abuses being perpetrated by elements on both sides almost defies belief," she said.

 

[Roudy]

 

[Sally]

any plans for syria to remain under assad control should consider what he has done to his own people

If the Dead Could Speak

I am sure that your friends still over there can tell you plenty, Aris. However, people are learning of this from some of the refugees who escaped. Of course, there are those on this forum who will call it propaganda, but perhaps they should try to find some Syrians who will give them the scoop. After all, there is nothing like getting it from the "horse's mouth."

One thing I believe many of us have learned with so much of the mess in the Middle East is that the people in many of these countries need a brutal tyrant (even though there are those here who look upon them as some heroes) to keep the citizens in line according to their own wishes so I don't know how anyone thought democracy could be established in these Middle East countries.

 

[aris2chat]

any plans for syria to remain under assad control should consider what he has done to his own people

If the Dead Could Speak

I am sure that your friends still over there can tell you plenty, Aris. However, people are learning of this from some of the refugees who escaped. Of course, there are those on this forum who will call it propaganda, but perhaps they should try to find some Syrians who will give them the scoop. After all, there is nothing like getting it from the "horse's mouth."

One thing I believe many of us have learned with so much of the mess in the Middle East is that the people in many of these countries need a brutal tyrant (even though there are those here who look upon them as some heroes) to keep the citizens in line according to their own wishes so I don't know how anyone thought democracy could be established in these Middle East countries.

a ring in the nose to be pulled around by