pknopp
Diamond Member
- Jul 22, 2019
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The OP is "QE4ever!" That is the topic. My response was to G5000, although obviously its an open board. Nevertheless, money supply is not an antiquated topic. QE affects money supply, although with some differences of money supply as increased by the Treasury. QE includes direct expansion of dollars via govt purchases of bonds, and as practiced by Powell to placate Trump, that means purchase of US debt. Along with letting the govt run historic deficits, this helps keep interest rates down, since the Fed is not like a "real investor" who wants as high a return on capital as possible. The Fed doesn't really care because any interest it earns, it must rebate to the Treasury.
QE can also be lowering the cost of borrowing money by private investors. That was what the Bernank originally went towards, although he si directly purchase bonds. He proposed letting those drop off the feds balance sheet as they matured, which in effect LOWERED money supply, but Powell reversed that course.
The question I proposed was … What will this cause? We've never tried it before. Japan hasn't, not really. Trump contemplates, apparently, permanent economic stimulus via the Fed, whose purpose for fifty some years has been to guard against inflation. Although for the past twenty years or so, some have been asking "what inflation?" It actually seems difficult for the Fed to achieve the inflation it wants.
But what are the other effects? Some warn that when the next recession happens, the Fed may not be able to just gobble up more debt because that will kill the dollar, and possibly end the US dollar as the reserve currency.
Some warn that by depressing interest rates despite historic debt, the Fed will find for investors no longer want US debt, which has been seen as the safest place to put actual money (not QE increases)
And lastly "net worth" has no application in terms of nations. "Financial position" is a similar concept, but that is related to, but not directly, what I asked about. But obviously if the econ crashed due to inflation or lack of demand for US debt, that would affect the US financial position.
Happy New Year.
What will this cause? It's going to make the rest of the world ditch the dollar.
It's going to make the rest of the world ditch the dollar.
In favor of what alternative?
It's hard to tell. It's already started. We bitch when other countries try and manipulate their money supply. We start wars to keep it on top. Other countries are growing tired.
China-Iran Oil Deal Undermines the Dollar
China Seeks To Undermine U.S. Dollar, Introduce Yuan Into Pakistan - The Media Line
The Dollar Underpins American Power. Rivals Are Building Workarounds.
Nobody wants to hold Chinese Yuan.
Or Iranian Rial. Or Pakistani Rupee.
It's going to happen. We can't continue to be hypocritical about this and starting wars.