'Substantial' El Niño event predicted

Yes, Billy Boob, I do. Stastitics is a required course for the degree I am pursueing, and I have finished that course.
then what does 2 standard deviations mean?
Probability distribution - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

There you go, learn something






It's pretty pathetic when you can't even use your own words to try and demonstrate how smart you supposedly are. In reality olfraud, you know nothing, about anything, that isn't fed to you by your masters. The level of your ignorance is astonishing to behold. The facts are it would be very nice if the El Nino decided to show up. California and Nevada desperately need the moisture. However, based on other evidence I'm not holding my breath.
 
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Badly needed rain in California in a front coming down from Alaska. Have been block by high pressure areas which are now dissipating - some claim due to the latest el Niño

Seems there is more to come. Won't do a lot to help the show pack in the Rockies but should give some relieve in the Sierra Nevadas.
 
Badly needed rain in California in a front coming down from Alaska. Have been block by high pressure areas which are now dissipating - some claim due to the latest el Niño

Seems there is more to come. Won't do a lot to help the show pack in the Rockies but should give some relieve in the Sierra Nevadas.
it is I agree. too bad the earth isn't complying for the need.
 
What's the point of denying El Nino? It's just stupid to do so, because there's no point in doing so, even for deniers. If some deniers had a brain, they'd embrace it, so they could blame the upcoming 2015 record high global average on El Nino instead of global warming.

Best I can tell, Billy and jc are throwing a tantrum, much like sullen teenagers. They want to disagree with whatever it is the grownups say, simply to demonstrate they're capable of acting badly. More attention-seeking nonsense.
 
What's the point of denying El Nino? It's just stupid to do so, because there's no point in doing so, even for deniers. If some deniers had a brain, they'd embrace it, so they could blame the upcoming 2015 record high global average on El Nino instead of global warming.

Best I can tell, Billy and jc are throwing a tantrum, much like sullen teenagers. They want to disagree with whatever it is the grownups say, simply to demonstrate they're capable of acting badly. More attention-seeking nonsense.









Who's "denying" the El Nino? It is a well known, though little understood, physical phenomena. Now it appears that you are so desperate to spew your propaganda you'll accuse people of denial where nothing of the sort has been shown.

You truly are desperate aren't you! It gives me great joy to see you have such a conniption over something so undeserving of one!
 
Who's "denying" the El Nino?

Reading comprehension problems? I typed the names of jc and Billy for a reason.

jc denies it exists.

Billy says it's going to fizzle quickly.

It is a well known, though little understood, physical phenomena.

jc and Billy have that covered. They say data is faked. Much like you do on multiple other topics.

Now it appears that you are so desperate to spew your propaganda you'll accuse people of denial where nothing of the sort has been shown.

It appears you get so unhinged when you see my posts, you forget what actually went on in a thread. Or maybe you just never read it in the first place.

You truly are desperate aren't you! It gives me great joy to see you have such a conniption over something so undeserving of one!

And now you're stuck. A normal person could simply admit they messed up. Alas, your raging narcissism prevents that. So you're going to go into some dishonest contortions now. Please proceed.
 
Who's "denying" the El Nino?

Reading comprehension problems? I typed the names of jc and Billy for a reason.

jc denies it exists.

Billy says it's going to fizzle quickly.

It is a well known, though little understood, physical phenomena.

jc and Billy have that covered. They say data is faked. Much like you do on multiple other topics.

Now it appears that you are so desperate to spew your propaganda you'll accuse people of denial where nothing of the sort has been shown.

It appears you get so unhinged when you see my posts, you forget what actually went on in a thread. Or maybe you just never read it in the first place.

You truly are desperate aren't you! It gives me great joy to see you have such a conniption over something so undeserving of one!

And now you're stuck. A normal person could simply admit they messed up. Alas, your raging narcissism prevents that. So you're going to go into some dishonest contortions now. Please proceed.






You! Claiming to be normal? That's a hoot. Yours is an unending series of propaganda reports. You have no thoughts of your own save that which your masters dictate to you. Us desperate? Not hardly, you come here and drop a flame and then flee before it can be answered while you're online.

And no, not one of the people you mention claim the El Nino isn't real. You are so desperate for anything to hurl you are now just making crap up and flinging poo like the obedient little monkey you are.
 
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Westwall, this thread is about El Nino, not your personal vendettas. Please stop trolling it.

Kosh, be clear for us. Are you saying there is or isn't an El Nino? It's important to pin deniers down on these things.

As far as California goes, El Nino normally has no effect on rainfall until the winter rainy season. Then it pours. It's not expected to have any effect on drought until then. Therefore, there will be a bad fire season, loss of vegetation, and lots of mudslides when the rain does come.
 
Westwall, this thread is about El Nino, not your personal vendettas. Please stop trolling it.

Kosh, be clear for us. Are you saying there is or isn't an El Nino? It's important to pin deniers down on these things.

As far as California goes, El Nino normally has no effect on rainfall until the winter rainy season. Then it pours. It's not expected to have any effect on drought until then. Therefore, there will be a bad fire season, loss of vegetation, and lots of mudslides when the rain does come.

Snageltooth is really desperate.

You lie about my position incessantly and others as well. You spout off about things you do not understand and haven't a clue about how they work. Simply because I do not agree with you and your invalid assertions, you spew hate and degrading rhetoric. It seems that your style and posting matches that of Matthew who is a sock-puppet. Makes me wonder if he is your sock-puppet.

IF you knew anything about ENSO you would know that Arctic or Antarctic temperature water will kill any oscillation. That is what is now occurring in the southern hemisphere and spilling into the Northern hemisphere. It is why Region 1 is now at zero anomaly and regions 3-4 are now cooling form their high of 1.38 deg C just four weeks ago. The model Matthew uses is based on incomplete data. The observations and historical based predictions are all showing a continued El Moki for only about one month further before it sharply declines. Time will tell the tale of which method is more accurate. Your models have failed 99% of the time so I am not losing any sleep over the prediction.
 
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So Billy, what's the source for all your very peculiar claims about ENSO? Is this something you're researching in your doctorate?

You say cold water will kill any El Nino. Then how did El Ninos happen in the past? Are you claiming that in the past, there was no cold water in the north and south Pacific?
 
We are obviously in El Nino conditions. A natural heat pump from east to west across the Pacific. What is not clear is how it pertains to CO2. Will the warming it brings be attributed to natural causes? Or...
 
We are obviously in El Nino conditions. A natural heat pump from east to west across the Pacific. What is not clear is how it pertains to CO2. Will the warming it brings be attributed to natural causes? Or...

You know better than this... They will claim it is all MAN CAUSED even when it can be shown to not be..
 
Westwall, this thread is about El Nino, not your personal vendettas. Please stop trolling it.

Kosh, be clear for us. Are you saying there is or isn't an El Nino? It's important to pin deniers down on these things.

As far as California goes, El Nino normally has no effect on rainfall until the winter rainy season. Then it pours. It's not expected to have any effect on drought until then. Therefore, there will be a bad fire season, loss of vegetation, and lots of mudslides when the rain does come.





Westwall, this thread is about El Nino, not your personal vendettas. Please stop trolling it.

Kosh, be clear for us. Are you saying there is or isn't an El Nino? It's important to pin deniers down on these things.

As far as California goes, El Nino normally has no effect on rainfall until the winter rainy season. Then it pours. It's not expected to have any effect on drought until then. Therefore, there will be a bad fire season, loss of vegetation, and lots of mudslides when the rain does come.







The definition of trolling is "flaming with no content", something you and your cohorts do incessantly.
To the subject at hand here are some charts showing the anomaly and its precip averages.

pr.comp.sd.gif



pr.comp.gif
 
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So Billy, what's the source for all your very peculiar claims about ENSO? Is this something you're researching in your doctorate?

You say cold water will kill any El Nino. Then how did El Ninos happen in the past? Are you claiming that in the past, there was no cold water in the north and south Pacific?

Your ignorance is showing.

El Moki is a weak El Nino Condition lasting more than three months where the mean anomaly does not meet the El Nino Criterion. NOAA simply changed the Criterion for this one and lowered values necessary to call it an El Nino. Using well established criteria our current condition is not El Nino because there is no Oscillation.

Putting that aside, Th reason observational predictions do not match the model is the progression of large amounts of cold water. Pre 1998 the warm pools were massive. Today they are not. there are only shallow areas of water and very elongated. Influencing the lack of heat at depth is the cold water from the south pole which is depleting what little is left of the warm pool.

Without the heat and mass to keep it going El Nino dies a rather quick death..

Even Tisdale notes the exaggerations by the model. He Also question where they got their numbers and /or what they changed to get such an extreme exaggeration without the mass and heat to support it.
Let’s assume for a moment that the sea surface temperatures in NINO3.4 region did something very unusual in November 2015 and rose to that 2012-2014 average value of the western equatorial Pacific of 29.94 deg C. The November 2015 NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly would be 3.3 deg C. That’s far short of 4 deg C.

Given the current numbers a 3.3 deg C anomaly is ridicules and above 4.0 is pure fantasy.
 
Who's "denying" the El Nino?

Reading comprehension problems? I typed the names of jc and Billy for a reason.

jc denies it exists.

Billy says it's going to fizzle quickly.

It is a well known, though little understood, physical phenomena.

jc and Billy have that covered. They say data is faked. Much like you do on multiple other topics.

Now it appears that you are so desperate to spew your propaganda you'll accuse people of denial where nothing of the sort has been shown.

It appears you get so unhinged when you see my posts, you forget what actually went on in a thread. Or maybe you just never read it in the first place.

You truly are desperate aren't you! It gives me great joy to see you have such a conniption over something so undeserving of one!

And now you're stuck. A normal person could simply admit they messed up. Alas, your raging narcissism prevents that. So you're going to go into some dishonest contortions now. Please proceed.
tooth, I know what El Nino is. I would gladly embrace it, it would make weather in Chicago much more consistent, as well as taking out the northern cold conditions that exist without an El Nino. The fact is, making the usual warmer exaggerated claims like you and yours love to do, is just silly when the observed patterns don't show it. Prove me wrong. post up something that proves differently.
 
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My, my, are we ever going to see some backpedaling and "I really didn't say exactly that" this year. Ol' Walleyes, you have been stating for five years now that we are in a cooling trend. In that five years, we have had two record years, and are working on a major one at present. If the predictions are correct, this El Nino is going to do for the temperature records what the 1998 El Nino did. And then, the silly dufus that you are, you will claim any year that does not measure up to that is an indication of the cooling.
 

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