The Effects of the Present El Nino

[Old Rocks]

The scientists weigh in on what effects we can expect from this El Nino.

 

[waltky]

El nino flooding...

Hundreds flee flood waters sparked by torrential rain in the United Kingdom
26 Dec 2015 - Hundreds of people had to flee their homes on Saturday after torrential rain triggered flooding in towns across Lancashire and West Yorkshire, and dangerously high waters even reached the cities of Manchester and Leeds.

The Met Office issued two of its most serious, red weather warnings – indicating a “danger to life” – for the area and warned that up to five inches of rain could fall over the weekend. In addition, the Environment Agency (EA) issued 22 severe flood warnings – which also signal danger to life – as well as 238 standard flood warnings, which mean that immediate action is required. In Leeds, a severe flood warning has been put in place for the city centre, with the river Aire expected to reach a record peak. The EA said it was due to “significant impacts to infrastructure and risk to life in the area”. “The peak at Leeds Crown Point is expected around 23.00 tonight,” it said.

In another incident believed to be connected with the flooding, a gas explosion occurred at around 4.30pm in Radcliffe, Greater Manchester. Saeed Atcha, a local radio presenter, said: “All of a sudden we heard a bang, we looked over to where the sound came from and couldn’t see anything. “Then a second later there was another explosion and then a big orange beam lit up the sky, like a flash. It was very, very scary. Everyone was looking around in a state of shock. A police officer shouted ‘Get back into your house, there has been a gas explosion.’ Two or three minutes later the police officer jumped into his van and drove away.”

Atcha said he understood that the explosion had been caused by the flooding. It occurred right next to the river Irwell, which has burst its banks. He added: “It is going to be a very dark and miserable evening. It seems like the area is on lock-down.” Areas such as Cumbria, which escaped the worst of Saturday’s downpours, could still be hit by further flooding later today, forecasters added. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service said it had been called out to around 350 incidents and had rescued 50 people. All of its boats and fire engines were mobilised, an official added.

Locals described some of the flooding as the most severe they had ever seen. One of the worst-affected towns was Whalley, in east Lancashire. It was flooded two weeks ago but was completely swamped when the river Calder burst its banks. Residents were evacuated by rescue boats. Kellie Hughes, a local hairdresser, said the flooding was “a million times worse” than a fortnight ago. “It’s just horrific, really bad. There are no more sandbags anywhere. People are panicking.” In Padiham, which is also on the Calder, fire crews had to evacuate their own station after river water poured in. And in Summerseat, Greater Manchester, the Waterside, a 200-year-old former mill and pub – closed for some time – collapsed into the Irwell and was swept away by the raging water.

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See also:

Flooding 'worst in 50 years', as 150,000 flee in Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay
27 December 2015 - Vast areas in Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil are being hit by the worst flooding in 50 years, forcing the evacuation of more than 150,000 people.

Days of heavy rains brought on by El Nino have caused three major rivers to swell, and authorities have reported at least six weather-related deaths. A state of emergency is in force in Paraguay, the worst hit nation, where 130,000 people have fled their homes. In northern Argentina, some 20,000 people have left their homes. Dry weather is forecast for the Brazil-Uruguay border region in the next few days, but in Paraguay and Argentina water levels are still expected to rise.

Paraguay

The Paraguay river in the capital Asuncion, is only 30cm (12in) away from overtopping its banks. Officials warn this could lead to widespread flooding in the area. And it could also affect thousands of other people who live by the Paraguay - the country's main river - the authorities said. "(The flooding) was directly influenced by the El Nino phenomenon which has intensified the frequency and intensity of rains," Paraguay's national emergencies office said. Nearly 200 electricity pylons have been damaged or destroyed by strong winds, causing power cuts. Four people have been killed by fallen trees. After declaring the state of emergency, President Horacio Cartes said $3.5m (£2.3m) would be immediately available in relief funds for the victims of the flooding.

Argentina

At least two people have died in the floods, which are mostly affecting the north-eastern provinces of Entre Rios, Corrientes and Chaco. Some 20,000 people have been evacuated in the border city of Concordia, where the Uruguay river is now 14 metres (46 feet) above its normal levels. Local officials said the flooding was the worst in the last five decades. Newly-elected President Mauricio Macri is expected to visit the region later on Sunday.

Brazil

In the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, nearly 1,800 families in almost 40 towns had been forced to leave their homes. Heavy rain began to fall in the region on 18 December, swelling the Uruguay and Quarai rivers. President Dilma Rousseff flew over the flooded region on Saturday to inspect the damage.

Uruguay

Thousands of people have been made homeless in the past few days, but most of them have now returned home. The authorities warn that water levels are expected to remain at their current high level for several days before subsiding.

Flooding 'worst in 50 years', as 150,000 flee in Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay - BBC News

 

[longknife]

South Africa – Floods Hit Johannesburg Area, 1 Killed in Limpopo Province @ South Africa - Floods Hit Johannesburg Area, 1 Killed in Limpopo Province - FloodList

South Africa Aids Flood Stricken Mozambique @ South Africa Aids Flood Stricken Mozambique - FloodList

And much more in the area

 

[Old Rocks]

Usually the peak effects of an El Nino occur in the three months after the El Nino peaks. It looks like this month has seen the peak of the present El Nino. So, going to be an interesting January, February, and March.

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - looks like it's already here...

NASA: US Could Feel El Niño's Effects in Early 2016
December 30, 2015 - NASA says the United States could soon feel the possibly chaotic effects of the weather phenomenon known as El Niño.

The U.S. space agency is warning this year's El Niño could be as powerful as the one in 1997-1998, which led to intense ice storms and flooding across the country. The conclusions are based partly on new satellite images that show the current El Niño pattern closely mirroring the one from 1997-1998, which was one of the strongest on record. "The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Niño," NASA said in a statement.

These false-color images provided by NASA satellites compare warm Pacific Ocean water temperatures from the strong El Nino that brought North America large amounts of rainfall in 1997 (R) and the current El Nino as of Dec. 27, 2015 (L). NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean shows no sign of weakening​

Cyclical phenomenon

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every few years, when tropical waters off the Pacific coast of South America turn warmer than normal. Warm air rises off those waters and changes the path of the major wind currents that blow around the planet. NASA says the current El Niño, which has already created weather chaos around the world, "shows no sign of waning."

Lightning illuminates a house after a tornado touched down in Jefferson County, Ala., damaging several houses in Birmingham​

The U.S. could feel El Niño's biggest effects during the first few months of 2016, it added. This could include "several months of relatively cool and wet conditions across the southern United States, and relatively warm and dry conditions over the northern United States." However, NASA says El Niño could "bring some relief" in the form of rain for the western U.S., much of which has suffered through several years of drought.

NASA: US Could Feel El Niño's Effects in Early 2016

See also:

Severe floods hit Missouri, toll reaches 13
Thu, Dec 31, 2015 - Floods in Missouri forced hundreds of residents out of their homes on Tuesday after four days of storms sent rivers to record levels, killing at least 13 people, closing hundreds of roads and halting shipping on the swollen Mississippi river.

A week of chaotic weather continued throughout the US as a storm system that spawned deadly tornadoes in the Midwest and Southwest pushed north. More than 40 people across the country have died of weather-related causes during the Christmas holidays in the past week. Missouri has been pounded by downpours since Saturday and forecasters warned that its major rivers could crest between yesterday and Saturday at records. “Flooding on the middle portion of the Mississippi River and its tributaries may reach levels not seen during the winter months since records began during the middle 1800s,” senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski wrote on AccuWeather.com.

Floodwaters cover roads in an aerial view of Union, Missouri​

At the confluence of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, about 32 km north of St Louis, residents of the towns of West Alton and Arnold were told to evacuate on Tuesday. “Access to and from town will be lost in a matter of hours,” the local Rivers Pointe Fire District said in an alert. Video from local news helicopters showed homes in West Alton with water almost at roof levels. Arnold residents scrambled to find hotels or move to shelters.

Sarah Quinn, 18, said she and her great-grandparents were moving to a hotel room after police turned off the power at her subdivision. Her sister, grandmother and other relatives decided to brave it out without power because they wanted to stay in their homes and vehicles to look after their pets. “I’ve never had this happen before. We’ve had simple flooding in the back of our subdivision and we’ve had to sandbag before, but it wasn’t this severe,” said Quinn, who spoke to reporters by telephone from her job in a local restaurant.

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[longknife]

This can't be right. There is no el Niño! It's all your imagination.

 

[PredFan]

El Niño?

Told you these illegals were nothing but trouble.

 

[Old Rocks]

This can't be right. There is no el Niño! It's all your imagination.

Yep, just ask Silly Billy and jc.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This can't be right. There is no el Niño! It's all your imagination.

Yep, just ask Silly Billy and jc.

You mean the all thats left of of the warmer ocean is WATER VAPOR.. The latent heat is GONE!

 

[Old Rocks]

Sick of El Niño? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet, Warns NASA

The El Niño currently wreaking havoc around the world is forecast to only worsen in 2016 — and NASA experts fear it could get as bad as the most destructive El Niño ever.

A new satellite image of the weather system "bears a striking resemblance to one from December 1997" — the worst El Niño on record — which was blamed forextreme weather, including record rainfall in California and Peru, heat waves across Australia, and fires in Indonesia. The severe conditions resulted in an estimated 23,000 deaths in 1997 and 1998.

This year's El Niño has already caused wild conditions for much of the United States.: It contributed to the reasons why many Americans experienced a balmy Christmas Eve, with temperature peaking in the 70s in places along the East Coast, and is responsible for deadly storms and near-record flooding in the South and Midwest.

Sick of El Niño? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet, Warns NASA

Hmmm.......

 

[Old Rocks]

El Nino Still Strengthening, Likely Into Spring 2016, NOAA Says

El Niño has an 80 percent chance of lasting into early spring 2016, according to an updated forecast released on Thursday by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Adminisration (NOAA). NOAA also reported that there is a greater than 90 percent chance of El Niño lasting through the upcoming winter.

El Niño is an anomalous, yet periodic, warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. For reasons still not well understood, every 2-7 years, this patch of ocean warms for six to 18 months.

The declaration that El Niño is likely to last into spring is important for the United States since precipitation and temperature impacts from a moderate-to-strong El Niño are typically most noticeable during the colder months. We have more on what those impacts are later in this article.

Sure, Silly Billy, sure.

 

[longknife]

Biggest El Niño effects on US may be yet to come



I guess NASA can be called a somewhat acceptable source?



NASA scientists say weather pattern hasn’t peaked yet, worse impact in US to be seen in next several months

Increased rain in the west to cause flooding and mud slides. You get too little. Or too much. Can't seem to get a break, can we? Aalready seeing heaving flooding in the northern part of the UK and Europe. Same for parts of South America and southeast Asis – with severe drought in other areas.

More of this story @ Biggest El Niño effects on US may be yet to come#

This El Nino Will Probably Get Stronger In 2016 @ http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/4ff286092a5414f97ca794deb0c77e81.htm

Snowstorm hits Lebanon, cutting off roads and villages @ Snowstorm hits Lebanon, cutting off roads and villages

Had enough meteorological mayhem? Sorry, thanks to El Niño, things are likely to get even worse @ Had enough meteorological mayhem? Sorry, thanks to El Niño, things are likely to get even worse - ImaGeo

Drought and erratic rains have affected two million people across Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. More floods are expected in Central America in January.

Millions more have been experiencing drought and crop failure in places like Ethiopia, Haiti and Papua New Guinea.



Paraguay hit by some of the worst floods in decades @ Paraguay hit by some of the worst floods in decades

Wild Weather in New Zealand @ Drenched holidaymakers abandon campsites as wild weather hits - National - NZ Herald News

 

[WheelieAddict]

Are there El Nino deniers around here too? I wouldn't be surprised. Anyways I just built a clutch on my sled so if it snows that would be nice.

 

[bripat9643]

Sick of El Niño? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet, Warns NASA

The El Niño currently wreaking havoc around the world is forecast to only worsen in 2016 — and NASA experts fear it could get as bad as the most destructive El Niño ever.

A new satellite image of the weather system "bears a striking resemblance to one from December 1997" — the worst El Niño on record — which was blamed forextreme weather, including record rainfall in California and Peru, heat waves across Australia, and fires in Indonesia. The severe conditions resulted in an estimated 23,000 deaths in 1997 and 1998.

This year's El Niño has already caused wild conditions for much of the United States.: It contributed to the reasons why many Americans experienced a balmy Christmas Eve, with temperature peaking in the 70s in places along the East Coast, and is responsible for deadly storms and near-record flooding in the South and Midwest.

Sick of El Niño? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet, Warns NASA

Hmmm.......

That's from el nino, not AGW. El ninos happen every few years.

 

[Billy_Bob]

And yet empirical data says NO.... Non governmental weather collection systems are 1.1 deg C lower than all Government published data. Whom to believe... Unaltered data or known liars...

 

[Old Rocks]

Ah, Silly Billy, reality putting your tit in a wringer again? Worldwide we are seeing some crazy weather, and the maps from the real meteorlogical agencies of various governments are showing a continuing very strong El Nino.

 

[bripat9643]

And yet empirical data says NO.... Non governmental weather collection systems are 1.1 deg C lower than all Government published data. Whom to believe... Unaltered data or known liars...

Yeah, because we've never had droughts or floods before!

 

[westwall]

Ah, Silly Billy, reality putting your tit in a wringer again? Worldwide we are seeing some crazy weather, and the maps from the real meteorlogical agencies of various governments are showing a continuing very strong El Nino.

This weather is nothing compared to what has happened in the past. Count yourself lucky we are not enjoying an atmospheric river like what slammed the west coast back in 1862 and turned the entire central valley of California into a lake. The effects of that epic storm were felt from Washington state to New Mexico and all the way east to Colorado. The storms we are seeing today are nothing compared to that.

 

[eagle1462010]

 

[Old Rocks]

Mr. Westwall, the most likely time for California to feel the impacts of this El Nino is from mid-January to the end of March. So there is a good chance of getting a major rainfall in the next three months. An atmospheric river like that you mention? Probably a higher chance of that during an El Nino, but not a certainty by any means.