The hockey stick revisited.

[pknopp]

There have been many studies by others since then, and they have confirmed the Hockey Stick.

View attachment 579208

What evidence is there for the hockey stick?

<p>Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000...

skepticalscience.com

Again, impossible. You can not confirm conclusions based upon flawed input. Mann refused to release his work when he released his theory. Why was that?

 

[ReinyDays]

There have been many studies by others since then, and they have confirmed the Hockey Stick.

View attachment 579208

What evidence is there for the hockey stick?

<p>Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000...

skepticalscience.com

Any proxy except the ice core data ... why is that? ...

Looks like the ice core data disproves the hockey stick ... temperatures have been fluctuating between 2ºC cooler to 2ºC warmer over the past 10,000 years ... we also have a temperature increase of 6ºC over 1,000 years within the past 25,000 years ...

Old Rocks buys into the statistical lie of reducing the sample pool to drive up probabilities ... this morning's temperature readings PROVE that the ocean will begin to boil off by the end of the week ...

Show me the math ... or you got nothing ...

 

[Oddball]

Now for a blast from the past, here at K-WARM!

 

[Sunsettommy]

Climate Audit

The Wegman and North Reports for Newbies​

Stephen McIntire

November 6, 2007

Excerpt:

In recent discussion of the Weblog 2007 Awards, several commenters at other blogs have argued that our criticisms of the Mannian parlor tricks have been “thoroughly refuted and discarded by climatologists, published in a credible journal”; that “other professionals in the field who also have “looked in great detail at the problem at hand” and have come to the conclusion that rather than McIntyre’s findings being “valid and relevant”, they instead have found them to be “without statistical and climatological merit”; that CA “fluffed on the whole hockey stick thing”. See for example here

Omitted in these references are the fact that the people described as “climatologists published in a credible journal” or “professionals in the field” are none other than Wahl and Ammann, serial coauthors with Michael Mann, students of Mann, who are not independent of the controversy. Indeed, they largely use (without citation or attribution or even acknowledgment to Michael Mann) arguments originally published at realclimate (and already responded to in MM 2005b(EE). Aside from their lack of independence, neither Ammann nor Wahl qualify as statistical authorities. Ammann did his undergraduate work in geology; Wahl in divinity. While this does not exclude them from having potential insight in the matter, it is evidence that one should not necessarily expect a sure grasp of mathematical and statistical issues and that their conclusions cannot be relied upon uncritically, even if Stephen Schneider accepted their article.

Readers interested in a third party view of the matter are far better off consulting the North Report, the Wegman report, (particularly) Wegman’s Reply to Questions and Richard Smith’s account of the 2006 American Statistical Association session. All of these individuals are vastly more eminent than Ammann and Wahl. Wegman, in particular, has been Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Theoretical and Applied Statistics and is a legitimate statistical expert. His comments on the Wahl and Ammann preprint are very acute and have not received appropriate consideration.

I’ve collated some of these remarks for the benefit of new readers who haven’t been following this particular story. Please read the comments below using the analogy from the previous post: see if any of our criticisms of Mannian parlor tricks have been refuted – as opposed to whether someone arguing that you can re-tool the trick to still saw the woman in half a different way. (And for this latter, pay particular attention to Wegman’s comments on Wahl and Ammann later in the post.)

The Wegman Report

The original Wegman Report is online here. Here are some excerpts from this report:

LINK

=====

In the link you will learn that Dr. Mann's Northern Hemisphere paper is statistical junk and shown to be so by Experts in Statistics and Both the Wegman Report and the NAS agree that Dr. Mann's claims are not valid so did the American Statistical Association also agrees that Dr. Mann's statistical error was exposed and proven to be incorrect.

Stop supporting the many times debunked "hockey Stick" statistical nonsense paper!

 

[skookerasbil]

Dud

Nobody has cared about the hockey stick nonsense since 2010.

Show us the evidence the public is caring? ( internet message boards don't count...of course )

 

[ding]

Dud

Nobody has cared about the hockey stick nonsense since 2010.

Show us the evidence the public is caring? ( internet message boards don't count...of course )

No kidding.

 

[skookerasbil]

No kidding.

View attachment 596032

 

[Woodznutz]

What does it matter? Nothing will be done about it.

 

[ReinyDays]

What does it matter? Nothing will be done about it.

Have you already cut your own energy bills to the bare minimum ... like closing yiour windows when your heater/AC is on ... combining trips to the store ... car pool or use public transportation ... there's been fifty years worth of publications on how to save money by using less energy ... my best idea was teaching my children how to sand so I could save electricity not running my belt sander ...

The problem is that folks connected to the internet have already done what needs to be done ... fertility rates in the First- and Second-World nations are below replacement (with the major exception of India) ... next would be to get rid of passenger cars and airline travel ...

Us Americans need to eat less meat ... this 'two servings for four meals a day' is too much ... make that one serving every other day ...

Watch the Alarmist howl if we recommend ditching their A/C ... ha ha ha ... great way to expose the basic hypocrisy ... everyone else has to change their lifestyle so Alarmists can continue their piggish existence ... burning coal to post on the internet the evils of burning coal ...

 

[Woodznutz]

Have you already cut your own energy bills to the bare minimum ... like closing yiour windows when your heater/AC is on ... combining trips to the store ... car pool or use public transportation ... there's been fifty years worth of publications on how to save money by using less energy ... my best idea was teaching my children how to sand so I could save electricity not running my belt sander ...

The problem is that folks connected to the internet have already done what needs to be done ... fertility rates in the First- and Second-World nations are below replacement (with the major exception of India) ... next would be to get rid of passenger cars and airline travel ...

Us Americans need to eat less meat ... this 'two servings for four meals a day' is too much ... make that one serving every other day ...

Watch the Alarmist howl if we recommend ditching their A/C ... ha ha ha ... great way to expose the basic hypocrisy ... everyone else has to change their lifestyle so Alarmists can continue their piggish existence ... burning coal to post on the internet the evils of burning coal ...

I check some of those boxes, but not all. While many have reduced their carbon footprint most haven't or can't. Even a modest lifestyle in the West requires the consumption of large amounts of energy. That said the short-term solution remains conservation and insulation by the citizenry.

One problem is that energy consumption is closely related to employment, even if the products produced are silly widgets, or some single-use products.

 

[ReinyDays]

I check some of those boxes, but not all. While many have reduced their carbon footprint most haven't or can't. Even a modest lifestyle in the West requires the consumption of large amounts of energy. That said the short-term solution remains conservation and insulation by the citizenry.

One problem is that energy consumption is closely related to employment, even if the products produced are silly widgets, or some single-use products.

"Conservation" is a dirty word 'round here, partner ... be careful or next thing you'll be accused of being a Carter Democrat ... now we don't want that to happen, do we? ...

All the answers to these problems have been out there for fifty, one hundred years ... if saving money today isn't important to folks, why do some think they care about some imagined "climate emergency" centuries in the future? ...

 

[ding]

What does it matter? Nothing will be done about it.

That may not be the point. It divides the masses so the masses are kept busy fighting themselves. It serves as a rallying cry for each party. A way to drum up donations. It serves as a moral argument so we can see ourselves as good. But you are mostly correct in that nothing much will come of it except we will make a lot of bad market and energy decisions that will be full of predictable surprises and unintended consequences.

Within 30 years this will all be rendered moot by colder temperatures. Solar variability and orbital forcings coupled with albedo of the northern hemisphere have driven all climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty over the last 3 million years because the planet is uniquely configured for bipolar glaciation and the planet's temperature is at the threshhold for extensive northern hemisphere glaciation.

 

[Woodznutz]

"Conservation" is a dirty word 'round here, partner ... be careful or next thing you'll be accused of being a Carter Democrat ... now we don't want that to happen, do we? ...

Reminds me of Carter donning a sweater and exhorting us to turn down the thermostat. My daughter-in-law once commented, "I love coming to your house, it's always so warm." To which I answered, "I didn't work all my life to be cold in my own home."

If I want to be cold I'll go outside.

 

[skookerasbil]

There have been many studies by others since then, and they have confirmed the Hockey Stick.

View attachment 579208

What evidence is there for the hockey stick?

<p>Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000...

skepticalscience.com

Your graph is ghey.......

Just released....not good news if you are a climate kOok

@www.whosnotwinning.com

 

[Crick]

I check some of those boxes, but not all. While many have reduced their carbon footprint most haven't or can't. Even a modest lifestyle in the West requires the consumption of large amounts of energy. That said the short-term solution remains conservation and insulation by the citizenry.

One problem is that energy consumption is closely related to employment, even if the products produced are silly widgets, or some single-use products.

The emissions associated with the energy consumption of both individuals and industry can be curtailed by a shift to alternate energy sources in our infrastructure.

 

[Sunsettommy]

The emissions associated with the energy consumption of both individuals and industry can be curtailed by a shift to alternate energy sources in our infrastructure.

Your delusion continues, never mind that none of them have 24/7 baseline capability and being very irregular in production.

Solar power goes to ZERO at night while low in the morning and evening hours, Wind Power goes to ZERO when High Pressure develops in the region which can last for days and days at a time.

CO2 isn't a danger to the planet which is why you have nothing to worry about.

 

[skookerasbil]

The emissions associated with the energy consumption of both individuals and industry can be curtailed by a shift to alternate energy sources in our infrastructure.

But what about China?

Why is that such a difficult question to answer?

The optics suck for the narrative you push......fact.

 

[Woodznutz]

The emissions associated with the energy consumption of both individuals and industry can be curtailed by a shift to alternate energy sources in our infrastructure.

Every clean energy source helps. However, the increasing need for energy by emerging economies can only be met by fossil fuels, far into the future.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Your analysis of the situation is flawed and wrong. The data was never bad, just less complete. Time marches on and so does science. Don’t get left behind.

No, it was still wrong because they used the same PC1 statistical garbage that doomed Dr. Mann's paper.

 

[skookerasbil]

Guess who gents?