Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Nov 21, 2013
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There has been lots of polling this week and I will do a polling round up at the end of the week, if time permits (lots of work right now), but this particular poll is newsworthy more for Scott Walker's and Carly Fiorina's polling values than for Trump's.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_Michigan_GOP_Primary_Voters_8-10-15.pdf
432 Michigan Republican LV
GOP nomination - Michigan
Trump 20
Fiorina 15
Bush 12
Carson 12
Rubio 10
Cruz 8
Kasich 8
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Walker 4
Paul 2
Margin: Trump +5
However, Michigan is a neigboring state to Scott Walker's Wisconsin, with a similar demographic and the conventional wisdom is that he would do well here. At 4%, he is going nowhere here. This is the first poll showing Carly Fiorina jumping into double digits, which has got to be good news for her team. Rand Paul has completely tanked, at 2%.
Michigan is a WTA state for the Republicans in the primaries. It is also a state that does not publish, at least at the state level, voter registration by party affiliation.
Michigan is now a 6-for-6 DEM state at the presidential level:
2012: Obama +9.47
2008: Obama +16.44
2004: Kerry +3.42
2000: Gore +5.13
1996: Clinton +13.21
1992: Clinton +7.40
1988: Bush 41 +7.90
1984: Reagan +18.99
1980: Reagan +6.49
1976: Ford +5.39
1972: Nixon +14.39
1968: Humphrey +6.73
1964: Johnson +33.61
1960: Kennedy +2.01
1956: Eisenhower +11.48
1952: Eisenhower +11.47
1948: Dewey +1.67
1944: FDR +1.02
1940: Willkie +0.33
I went all the way back to 1940 to make a couple of extra fun points. First, your eyes are not seeing double in 1952 and 1956. Eisenhower really did score almost completely identical margins in MI in those two cycles. In 1940 and in 1976, a home-stater or neighboring favorite son was on the ballot: Willkie and Ford. And in both cases, they were narrow wins.
This is a state where Republicans talk about wanting to find "Reagan Democrats" and indeed, you can find them here. Romney pulled his ads out of Michigan in September, 2012, likewise for McCain in 2008. Bush 43 made a serious play for Michigan in 2004 and came close, but not close enough.
Thus far in Michigan, there have been 11 polls with 44 Hillary vs. GOP-field matchups and Hillary has won all 44 of them, mostly be very comfortable margins.
How did Mitchell Research do in 2012?
Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.
Mitchell predicted Obama +5, he actually won by +9.5, so Mitchell was off to the Right by 4.5 points in that year.
Mitchell and his wife, both of whom head the firm, are Republicans.
FYI.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_Michigan_GOP_Primary_Voters_8-10-15.pdf
432 Michigan Republican LV
GOP nomination - Michigan
Trump 20
Fiorina 15
Bush 12
Carson 12
Rubio 10
Cruz 8
Kasich 8
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Walker 4
Paul 2
Margin: Trump +5
However, Michigan is a neigboring state to Scott Walker's Wisconsin, with a similar demographic and the conventional wisdom is that he would do well here. At 4%, he is going nowhere here. This is the first poll showing Carly Fiorina jumping into double digits, which has got to be good news for her team. Rand Paul has completely tanked, at 2%.
Michigan is a WTA state for the Republicans in the primaries. It is also a state that does not publish, at least at the state level, voter registration by party affiliation.
Michigan is now a 6-for-6 DEM state at the presidential level:
2012: Obama +9.47
2008: Obama +16.44
2004: Kerry +3.42
2000: Gore +5.13
1996: Clinton +13.21
1992: Clinton +7.40
1988: Bush 41 +7.90
1984: Reagan +18.99
1980: Reagan +6.49
1976: Ford +5.39
1972: Nixon +14.39
1968: Humphrey +6.73
1964: Johnson +33.61
1960: Kennedy +2.01
1956: Eisenhower +11.48
1952: Eisenhower +11.47
1948: Dewey +1.67
1944: FDR +1.02
1940: Willkie +0.33
I went all the way back to 1940 to make a couple of extra fun points. First, your eyes are not seeing double in 1952 and 1956. Eisenhower really did score almost completely identical margins in MI in those two cycles. In 1940 and in 1976, a home-stater or neighboring favorite son was on the ballot: Willkie and Ford. And in both cases, they were narrow wins.
This is a state where Republicans talk about wanting to find "Reagan Democrats" and indeed, you can find them here. Romney pulled his ads out of Michigan in September, 2012, likewise for McCain in 2008. Bush 43 made a serious play for Michigan in 2004 and came close, but not close enough.
Thus far in Michigan, there have been 11 polls with 44 Hillary vs. GOP-field matchups and Hillary has won all 44 of them, mostly be very comfortable margins.
How did Mitchell Research do in 2012?
Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.
Mitchell predicted Obama +5, he actually won by +9.5, so Mitchell was off to the Right by 4.5 points in that year.
Mitchell and his wife, both of whom head the firm, are Republicans.
FYI.
