- Moderator
- #1
As I said two months ago, I wanted Republicans to lose the midterms. not because I want Democrats to win or that I support their agenda, but because it's necessary for Trumpism to be destroyed in order to save the Republican Party. I'm fairly pleased with last night's results. The Republicans look on track to eek out just a small majority in the House, far less than expectations, and at best they might be able to hold a 50/50 Senate again. Either Nevada or Arizona will have to flip to counter Pennsylvania, assuming Ron Johnson hangs on in Wisconsin, and both are looking iffy right now. Dems may end up with 51 seats when all is said and done.
The Dobbs ruling played a major role in this defeat. Women and Gen Z voters were out in historical force infuriated by the abortion ruling. That definitely blunted any red wave, but at the end of the day candidate quality matters and Trump is solely to blame for that. His MAGA picks crashed and burned last night. New Hampshire Senate, Pennsylvania Senate and Governor, Wisconsin Governor, several House endorsements, all very winnable races, Trump racked up loss after loss after loss. Even his rare winners, like J.D. Vance in Ohio, had to struggle to win in a race that should have been a cakewalk.
Voters sent a clear message to the Republican Party. Trumpism is poison. They rejected the extreme MAGA conspiratorial election deniers at nearly every turn. This, in one of the best electoral environments Republicans had in several election cycles. Contrast that with candidates who rejected Trump, like Brian Kemp and Chris Sununu, who had no problem winning their elections, while their Senate counterparts crapped the bed. Even in some races that Republicans came up short, the ones who rejected Trumpism overperformed their district environment. Hung Cao came within a few points of winning VA-10, a district in northern Virginia that Biden won by 18 points. Allan Fung came within three points of winning Rhode Island's Second District, a district Biden won by almost 30. Lee Zeldin got 46% of the vote in New York in his gubernatorial bid, the best performance by a Republican in New York in two decades, by keeping Trump out of the picture and sticking to a message of cleaning up crime plaguing NYC. Zeldin's excellent performance might end up dragging several Republican House candidates in New York over the finish line. Ironically, the GOP may take the House majority because of New York of all states. Compare these results with MAGA loudmouth Lauren Bobert, who is on the cusp of losing her seat in a safe Republican district in western Colorado.
How anybody could still want Trump as their great white hope in 2024 is pretty astonishing at this point considering what Ron DeSantis did in Florida last night. This was the only state that saw a red wave. DeSantis is on target to win reelection with almost 60% of the vote. He won Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville, all traditional Democratic areas. It seems pretty clear that the path forward for the Republican Party lies in Ron DeSantis as opposed to the toxicity of Donald Trump and yet, despite this, Trump's lawyer had the arrogance to send DeSantis a finely worded threat to stay out of the presidential race.
It's time for Trump supporters to accept the fact that they got lucky in 2016. Two very unpopular candidates ran for president and Trump just managed to squeak out enough votes in key states to win the Electoral College, largely due to Clinton's missteps. Since then he's presided over, now, three election cycles in which the Republican Party has received a thumping. It's more than clear that DeSantis is the path forward for 2024 and Trump is the path of electoral disaster. All over social media today a lot of conservative pundits are finally admitting this. A lot of money and support will undoubtedly shift from Trump to DeSantis in the coming months and the party apparatus will do everything they can to stop Trump in his tracks. The question is how many of the Trump faithful will manage to break themselves out of his hypnotic spell.
Don't expect Trump to go gracefully, though. This is and has always been about his ego. He's going to kick and scream and cry and do everything he can to sabotage the party if he doesn't get his way. The next two years are going to be very bumpy in the GOP.
The Dobbs ruling played a major role in this defeat. Women and Gen Z voters were out in historical force infuriated by the abortion ruling. That definitely blunted any red wave, but at the end of the day candidate quality matters and Trump is solely to blame for that. His MAGA picks crashed and burned last night. New Hampshire Senate, Pennsylvania Senate and Governor, Wisconsin Governor, several House endorsements, all very winnable races, Trump racked up loss after loss after loss. Even his rare winners, like J.D. Vance in Ohio, had to struggle to win in a race that should have been a cakewalk.
Voters sent a clear message to the Republican Party. Trumpism is poison. They rejected the extreme MAGA conspiratorial election deniers at nearly every turn. This, in one of the best electoral environments Republicans had in several election cycles. Contrast that with candidates who rejected Trump, like Brian Kemp and Chris Sununu, who had no problem winning their elections, while their Senate counterparts crapped the bed. Even in some races that Republicans came up short, the ones who rejected Trumpism overperformed their district environment. Hung Cao came within a few points of winning VA-10, a district in northern Virginia that Biden won by 18 points. Allan Fung came within three points of winning Rhode Island's Second District, a district Biden won by almost 30. Lee Zeldin got 46% of the vote in New York in his gubernatorial bid, the best performance by a Republican in New York in two decades, by keeping Trump out of the picture and sticking to a message of cleaning up crime plaguing NYC. Zeldin's excellent performance might end up dragging several Republican House candidates in New York over the finish line. Ironically, the GOP may take the House majority because of New York of all states. Compare these results with MAGA loudmouth Lauren Bobert, who is on the cusp of losing her seat in a safe Republican district in western Colorado.
How anybody could still want Trump as their great white hope in 2024 is pretty astonishing at this point considering what Ron DeSantis did in Florida last night. This was the only state that saw a red wave. DeSantis is on target to win reelection with almost 60% of the vote. He won Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville, all traditional Democratic areas. It seems pretty clear that the path forward for the Republican Party lies in Ron DeSantis as opposed to the toxicity of Donald Trump and yet, despite this, Trump's lawyer had the arrogance to send DeSantis a finely worded threat to stay out of the presidential race.
It's time for Trump supporters to accept the fact that they got lucky in 2016. Two very unpopular candidates ran for president and Trump just managed to squeak out enough votes in key states to win the Electoral College, largely due to Clinton's missteps. Since then he's presided over, now, three election cycles in which the Republican Party has received a thumping. It's more than clear that DeSantis is the path forward for 2024 and Trump is the path of electoral disaster. All over social media today a lot of conservative pundits are finally admitting this. A lot of money and support will undoubtedly shift from Trump to DeSantis in the coming months and the party apparatus will do everything they can to stop Trump in his tracks. The question is how many of the Trump faithful will manage to break themselves out of his hypnotic spell.
Don't expect Trump to go gracefully, though. This is and has always been about his ego. He's going to kick and scream and cry and do everything he can to sabotage the party if he doesn't get his way. The next two years are going to be very bumpy in the GOP.