Trump Will Win Say Professor Allan Lichtman

[JakeStarkey]

In your head, only, kid.

 

[kaz]

Breitbart disagrees.

Democratic nominee for president Hillary Clinton continues to hold a slight lead over her GOP rival Donald Trump with 44 percent of the electorate compared with his 40 percent, according to the Breitbart News Network/Gravis Marketing poll conducted on Sept. 20 of 1,560 likely voters.

“Our results are virtually the same as in our poll taken Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, where Clinton led Trump 43 percent to Trump’s 40 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that executed the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.5 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.

“It’s like voters have settled down from the conventions and everything else and are really waiting for the first presidential debate,” Kaplan said.

Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Hillary Clinton 44, Donald Trump 40

Talking inside baseball: I'd still give Trump a shot because of that 44-40 split. There's still an unaccounted for 16% and who knows how they'd break out on election day. Normally I'd be comfortable saying the leader in the polls would benefit the most from those undecided casting a vote, but this year things are pretty wonky.

It will be all about the debates. I think it is likely that Hillary is going to goad Trump into saying something asinine and that may well secure her victory.

I think everyone is watching expecting Trump will falter. He's been doing fine now he's using a teleprompter, but Trump sans teleprompter is the guy that's given us some pretty outrageous and stupid quotable moments.

Now, if Trump doesn't screw up. If he's just kinda there in a low key manner, I think he comes out of the debate pretty strong. An empty suit Republican would be beating or at least running neck and neck with Hillary. The leads she has enjoyed almost always come from Trump really royally screwing up.

It's a double edged sword for sure for the reason you said, his desire to say completely inane things. However, Hillary is an unpleasant woman, a terrible speaker, arrogant and can't think on her feet. Pressing her could very well lead to her self destruction.

Hillary hasn't given a press conference in a year for that reason. She only will accept, softball, puff questions. Obviously she can't get away with that when Trump can take it to her.

So ... the excitement. Does Trump go for the knock out? If he does, does he knock the ice queen out or does he commit too many self inflicted wounds along the way? TBD

I'd be hesitant if I was Trump. I don't recall all of the details, but Hillary ended up running away with her Senate race after her opponent came off as condescending and bullying. There's that danger here for Trump, especially given how he's talked about women in general.

As for Hillary, she's not very charismatic but she's sharp enough to keep up. The Benghazi panel failed to deliver any knock-out blows despite hours of opportunity to question her live on TV. Underestimating her isn't a wise idea.

I suspect a really aggressive showing for Trump would play right into Hillary's hands. She wants him to look unPresidential and horrible, and she's got a sarcastic wit that could provoke him further.

If Trump comes in measured and low key, he can undo some of the image he's been building of someone unPresidential and vile.

In the debate, she won't be able to just keep repeating "I don't recall"

 

[FA_Q2]

Breitbart disagrees.

Democratic nominee for president Hillary Clinton continues to hold a slight lead over her GOP rival Donald Trump with 44 percent of the electorate compared with his 40 percent, according to the Breitbart News Network/Gravis Marketing poll conducted on Sept. 20 of 1,560 likely voters.

“Our results are virtually the same as in our poll taken Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, where Clinton led Trump 43 percent to Trump’s 40 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that executed the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.5 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.

“It’s like voters have settled down from the conventions and everything else and are really waiting for the first presidential debate,” Kaplan said.

Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Hillary Clinton 44, Donald Trump 40

Talking inside baseball: I'd still give Trump a shot because of that 44-40 split. There's still an unaccounted for 16% and who knows how they'd break out on election day. Normally I'd be comfortable saying the leader in the polls would benefit the most from those undecided casting a vote, but this year things are pretty wonky.

It will be all about the debates. I think it is likely that Hillary is going to goad Trump into saying something asinine and that may well secure her victory.

I think everyone is watching expecting Trump will falter. He's been doing fine now he's using a teleprompter, but Trump sans teleprompter is the guy that's given us some pretty outrageous and stupid quotable moments.

Now, if Trump doesn't screw up. If he's just kinda there in a low key manner, I think he comes out of the debate pretty strong. An empty suit Republican would be beating or at least running neck and neck with Hillary. The leads she has enjoyed almost always come from Trump really royally screwing up.

It's a double edged sword for sure for the reason you said, his desire to say completely inane things. However, Hillary is an unpleasant woman, a terrible speaker, arrogant and can't think on her feet. Pressing her could very well lead to her self destruction.

Hillary hasn't given a press conference in a year for that reason. She only will accept, softball, puff questions. Obviously she can't get away with that when Trump can take it to her.

So ... the excitement. Does Trump go for the knock out? If he does, does he knock the ice queen out or does he commit too many self inflicted wounds along the way? TBD

I don't think that he should go for the 'knockout' but those saying he should be low key are equally wrong. He needs to push her but remain reasonable in his approach. That is a fine line to walk and I do not think he is capable of it. As you said, TBD.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Generally speaking, I consider it desperation when someone trots out the "They've been right every time for X years" indicators. No one had ever came back from being down 3 in a Major League playoff series until the Red Sox beat the Yankees 4 games to 3.

I'm always interested in odds. It's far more honest to say a result is more likely than not. Right now every model of the election that's out there and the betting markets are saying Hillary is the favorite. But again, that's not certainty. It just means she's more likely to win. Trump still could.

Someone making an educated analysis of election results is not the same as a stand alone trend in sports.

A better analogy would be to say that some prognosticator who has picked the Super Bowl correctly for the past 8 Super Bowls has now picked team x to win the next super bowl.