Why National Statistics are Wrong and Deceptive...

[Billy_Bob]

The FBI publishes crime statistics every year and they are broken down by state. These are used to form public policy and police policies. Are they showing the actual problems with "police" or are they a deceptive and misleading? I contend they are deceptive and misleading.

Statistics are "point of view" oriented and subjective. I am going to attempt to explain why using the "national" level numbers are deceptive and paint a picture of racism where none exists. You must view these stats from within the populace where they are created.

IN example, A state has a portion of the populace that is overrepresented in the state's population who have been incarcerated. From the 'state' view it appears that something is wrong with policing. When we look where the crimes occur (local), we find that the populace make up is mirrored in the crime statistics.

When you look at a state like Illinois, the rate of people of color incarcerated is almost 62% while the whole state has about a 35% population. When you look at the state as whole, you would come to the conclusion they are being targeted. When you actually look at WHERE the crimes are committed you find that they come from areas where the persons of color are 65% of the population. In reality the numbers reflect the region where the crime are committed.

This means they are not being targeted.

You can blame culture, schooling, the breakdown of the family and many other things. You should be blaming the Victim Mentality as this entitled state absolves those from taking personal responsibility for their lives.

This is why CRT is also so destructive. Creating an oppressor and oppressed designation allows for the victim mentality which is so destructive to personal responsibility.

 

[Billy_Bob]

In my old department, we broke down the regions of our enforcement areas and took actions based on the populations and culture. It worked very well at reducing crime. We targeted helping teach and giving kids somewhere to go and be supervised.

I know how this works and why. So why do we play stupid on a national level?

 

[MarathonMike]

There are lies, there are damn lies, there are statistics and then there are Democrat distorted statistics.

 

[Billy_Bob]

There are lies, there are damn lies, there are statistics and then there are Democrat distorted statistics.

I just don't know why no one figured this out. It's obvious to me but that is probably because I have dealt with stats in both my law enforcement and atmospheric physics jobs...

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

The FBI publishes crime statistics every year and they are broken down by state. These are used to form public policy and police policies. Are they showing the actual problems with "police" or are they a deceptive and misleading? I contend they are deceptive and misleading.

Statistics are "point of view" oriented and subjective. I am going to attempt to explain why using the "national" level numbers are deceptive and paint a picture of racism where none exists. You must view these stats from within the populace where they are created.

IN example, A state has a portion of the populace that is overrepresented in the state's population who have been incarcerated. From the 'state' view it appears that something is wrong with policing. When we look where the crimes occur (local), we find that the populace make up is mirrored in the crime statistics.

When you look at a state like Illinois, the rate of people of color incarcerated is almost 62% while the whole state has about a 35% population. When you look at the state as whole, you would come to the conclusion they are being targeted. When you actually look at WHERE the crimes are committed you find that they come from areas where the persons of color are 65% of the population. In reality the numbers reflect the region where the crime are committed.

This means they are not being targeted.

You can blame culture, schooling, the breakdown of the family and many other things. You should be blaming the Victim Mentality as this entitled state absolves those from taking personal responsibility for their lives.

This is why CRT is also so destructive. Creating an oppressor and oppressed designation allows for the victim mentality which is so destructive to personal responsibility.

what does your 62% and 35% incarceration numbers mean?
is that incarceration rates?

 

[Billy_Bob]

I just had a person tell me that my take was wrong but failed to show why.
Statistics are a COMPARISON. If crime region numbers representee that region, then the inclusion into another number which distorts the stat is an invalid comparison.

 

[Billy_Bob]

what does your 62% and 35% incarceration numbers mean?
is that incarceration rates?

62% is the rate of overall incarceration and 35% is the percentage of that population statewide.
That makes it appear as if this demographic is being targeted within the state. When we look at the area where the crimes occur, the number is representative of that region and correct when compared with other regions.

 

[Rogue AI]

The problem is that state breakdowns are disingenuous due to the massive population disparity between the smallest and largest states. A state with 600,000 total residents weighs each incident higher than a state with tens of millions. The notion is ludicrous and makes larger states, particularly blue states seem like they are 'safer' by comparison. It's simply liberalism and it's lying nature rearing it's ugly head again.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The problem is that state breakdowns are disingenuous due to the massive population disparity between the smallest and largest states. A state with 600,000 total residents weighs each incident higher than a state with tens of millions. The notion is ludicrous and makes larger states, particularly blue states seem like they are 'safer' by comparison. It's simply liberalism and it's lying nature rearing it's ugly head again.

Weighting.. just one more way to distort reality..

 

[Billy_Bob]

I have been asked to show the actual numbers for Illinois. This thread is a generalization. I will be happy to discuss actual numbers and determinations. I don't have time today to do this, I can entertain this in a day or two.

 

[Rogue AI]

Weighting.. just one more way to distort reality..

In the case of crime statistics, the use of rates per is utterly disingenuous and unnecessary. The only numbers that matter are the actual number of crimes committed. It's a silly trick liberals use to denigrate low population states in which rates are artificially increased due to population disparity.

 

[Silent Warrior]

Perhaps the explanation is as simple as stating the statistics the way they do benefits certain blocs of individuals and/or voters.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Perhaps the explanation is as simple as stating the statistics the way they do benefits certain blocs of individuals and/or voters.

The point is to show that crime stats require you to look at the population areas, not just the general number. IF the number of crimes and arrests/incarcerations in an area are consistent with population density, then the state overall numbers are meaningless. We're using the wrong numbers to create policy from. We're assuming racism or racial profiling when it does not exist.

 

[Silent Warrior]

The point is to show that crime stats require you to look at the population areas, not just the general number. IF the number of crimes and arrests/incarcerations in an area are consistent with population density, then the state overall numbers are meaningless. We're using the wrong numbers to create policy from. We're assuming racism or racial profiling when it does not exist.

Very true. Now the big question is, what group or groups benefit from the way we quote those statistics? Personally I think the answer is obvious.