Paulie
Diamond Member
- May 19, 2007
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That the best you got? LOL!
It didn't deserve even another single syllable, let alone any more words.
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That the best you got? LOL!
Right. I forgot that Israel had that Blank Check. You would've thought the Austro-Hungarian Empire would've taught us something...
Right. I forgot that Israel had that Blank Check. You would've thought the Austro-Hungarian Empire would've taught us something...
Not understanding history means never having to say you're Sarajevo.
My pet theory:
Iran fought for 8? years against an Army (Iraq) that we rolled over in weeks.
I believe that the WMD rationalization was secondary to the tactical need to flank Iran on three sides. i.e. Afghanistan to the East, Iraq to the West and the Indian Ocean to the South.
Pakistan is an unknown. The recent bombing of Indian interests may seal their fate.
Syria is Israels. Or we could go west and take them out as well. The problem is that we are stretched thin. This whole thing could go South real quick.
Just my opinion.
I agree with the first part of your pet theory.
Ok, since speculation on how to do it has kinda petered out, here's my take. Assuming, en arguendo, the US does it. I don't see any stomach around for a full scale mobilization of the US armed forces. So, absent something crazy happening, that's out.
Cassus belli? Iran makes some demonstration that they are dangerously close to having a nuclear weapon or have a crude untested one. Or, Iran follows through with blockading the Straits of Hormuz.
My best guess would be a decapitating strike against Iranian leadership with a simultaneous attack on all known atomic facilities and missile facilities. All with B-2s and F-117/F-22s and cruise missiles. Concurrent missions taking down the air defenses and Iranian Air Force follow. With Iran laid open, follow-ups to the decapitating strikes take place. Also, attacks preventing movement of Iranian forces toward Iraq occur. The Iranian Navy is destroyed in short order and sea bases denied to them. Silkworm missiles present a hazard to US ships and measures are taken to defend and defeat them. Even still the US loses one or two ships with another heavily damaged.
Concerted effort is made to destroy the fulcrums of Iranian police state power. Significant covert action takes place to attempt to influence a popular uprising against the disrupted government. Probable civil war follows.
That's about it. We break it but we don't fix it. If the good guys win (Iranian people), maybe we revisit the decision. Either way, Iran is no longer a credible threat.
Anyone else?
Our President Bush and our Vice President Cheney have repeatedly referred to Iran as part of the Axis of Evil, and Iran is run by evil-doers who want to nuke our most important ally, Israel. Our leaders, including Mr. Kristol, Mr. Podhoritz, Mr. Perle, Mr. Wolfowitz, Mr. Bolton, Mr. Abrams and many more, have told us that we have to attack Iran to stop their terrorist aims against Israel. We must attack now, while our leaders are still in power. A pincer movement between Iraq and Afghanistan will be a cakewalk, just like Iraq and Afghanistan were.
Damn! I like it. I like yours better than what I envision.
But what about Pakistan? Could we count on India?
China.
The Chinese are sneaking up our back door through Panama. That's what scares me about Obama the most. The Dems call to empty the Petroleum Reserve is sheer suicide. Are they doing this crap deliberately? Do they want to see us fall?
Thanks.
I don't think all solutions to these problems are military. As far as Pakistan and India are concerned, we need to be careful and understand what we want and expect out of that part of the world. We've been cultivating relationships with both of them. We need to use the diplomatic capital we've raised there to get the two of them to chill out on the Kashmir issue. Turn down the temperature and get to some kind of framework that would allow Pakistan to free its armed forces to focus on implementing an anti-insurgency strategy in the tribal regions. I view is currently as probably doable. But, that means we're in Afghanistan at least 5 more years.
I'm a hell of a lot more worried about China at least in a strategic sense then almost anything else. Another reason why it will pay to develop relations with India. A billion people sitting on the Chinese border is a formidable check.
China is buying up oil interests in all sorts of unsavory places in the world. Basically, anywhere our morals won't permit us to go, you'll find the Chinese. My chief worry is what happens when the Chinese go to Chavez and say, we'll buy all your oil, you won't need to sell to the US. Think Chavez would hesitate? I think not.
If you want the nightmare scenario, China does that at the same time Iran cuts the Straits of Hormuz. Now we're fucked. No oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela. So, we're down to about 40-50% of normal supplies. Oil prices would be passing $800/barrel.
I bet the Dems still wouldn't allow drilling in ANWR.