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Hilarious, what rigorous science they are practicing at NOAA. Just keep redefining terms, keep moving the goal posts until you get the data to fit the story you want to tell.
Just looking cursory at the new data we are on track to form a down right cold La Nina... going to be an interesting next few months
Too Funny;
NOAA changes the definition of EL Nino reducing the heat level required to call it from +0.5 deg C to +0.4 deg C Anomaly...
sourceThe NINO3.4 index is one of several El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators based on sea surface temperatures.
NINO3.4 is the average sea surface temperature anomaly in the region bounded by 5°N to 5°S, from 170°W to 120°W. This region has large variability on El Niño time scales, and is close to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the far western Pacific.
An El Niño or La Niña event is identified if the 5-month running-average of the NINO3.4 index exceeds +0.4°C for El Niño or -0.4°C for La Niña for at least 6 consecutive months.
I guess The earth just wasn't complying with the demands of alarmists so they had to change the 6 month running anomaly level to get their man.
Current anomaly is just +0.33 deg C thus breaking the 6 month trend required to maintain the "El Nino" classification.
NO kelvin wave as of yet so westerlies required to drive a ramp up do not exist. Not sure why they are calling for a ramp up as the drivers are not present. It appears to be a poke and hope by alarmists.
If you'll notice, both of my resources's measurements are in March, your chart stops at January.
By the way, el Nino doesn't effect climate long-term, it effects weather short-term (months, not years).
Get with the program. You and other posters are so mindset on the topic of climate change, that you close your mind on weather change and the actual effects of el Nino and other weather pattern changers. You folks are taking your obsession beyond reality.
Just looking cursory at the new data we are on track to form a down right cold La Nina... going to be an interesting next few months
We know how this turns out.
3 months from now, a weak El Nino will still be around, and yet another one of Billy's doomsday cooling predictions will end up proven to be laughably wrong, continuing his perfect record of failure.
Undeterred, Billy will simply make a new doomsday cooling prediction.
Too Funny;
NOAA changes the definition of EL Nino reducing the heat level required to call it from +0.5 deg C to +0.4 deg C Anomaly...
sourceThe NINO3.4 index is one of several El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators based on sea surface temperatures.
NINO3.4 is the average sea surface temperature anomaly in the region bounded by 5°N to 5°S, from 170°W to 120°W. This region has large variability on El Niño time scales, and is close to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the far western Pacific.
An El Niño or La Niña event is identified if the 5-month running-average of the NINO3.4 index exceeds +0.4°C for El Niño or -0.4°C for La Niña for at least 6 consecutive months.
I guess The earth just wasn't complying with the demands of alarmists so they had to change the 6 month running anomaly level to get their man.
Current anomaly is just +0.33 deg C thus breaking the 6 month trend required to maintain the "El Nino" classification.
NO kelvin wave as of yet so westerlies required to drive a ramp up do not exist. Not sure why they are calling for a ramp up as the drivers are not present. It appears to be a poke and hope by alarmists.
If you'll notice, both of my resources's measurements are in March, your chart stops at January.
By the way, el Nino doesn't effect climate long-term, it effects weather short-term (months, not years).
Get with the program. You and other posters are so mindset on the topic of climate change, that you close your mind on weather change and the actual effects of el Nino and other weather pattern changers. You folks are taking your obsession beyond reality.
My graph was TODAY! LOL that you missed the date stamp.. "analysis 21 March..."
Conflation and deception by NOAA, which is meant to be misleading and deceptive, gets unwarranted fear responses by the public. That fear mongering is the hallmark of an agenda which has no basis in fact.and requires a fear response to get people to believe the lie.Too Funny;
NOAA changes the definition of EL Nino reducing the heat level required to call it from +0.5 deg C to +0.4 deg C Anomaly...
sourceThe NINO3.4 index is one of several El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators based on sea surface temperatures.
NINO3.4 is the average sea surface temperature anomaly in the region bounded by 5°N to 5°S, from 170°W to 120°W. This region has large variability on El Niño time scales, and is close to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the far western Pacific.
An El Niño or La Niña event is identified if the 5-month running-average of the NINO3.4 index exceeds +0.4°C for El Niño or -0.4°C for La Niña for at least 6 consecutive months.
I guess The earth just wasn't complying with the demands of alarmists so they had to change the 6 month running anomaly level to get their man.
Current anomaly is just +0.33 deg C thus breaking the 6 month trend required to maintain the "El Nino" classification.
NO kelvin wave as of yet so westerlies required to drive a ramp up do not exist. Not sure why they are calling for a ramp up as the drivers are not present. It appears to be a poke and hope by alarmists.
If you'll notice, both of my resources's measurements are in March, your chart stops at January.
By the way, el Nino doesn't effect climate long-term, it effects weather short-term (months, not years).
Get with the program. You and other posters are so mindset on the topic of climate change, that you close your mind on weather change and the actual effects of el Nino and other weather pattern changers. You folks are taking your obsession beyond reality.
My graph was TODAY! LOL that you missed the date stamp.. "analysis 21 March..."
Actually, I was referring to the post your post 56 which did not have March 21st, your post 57 had March 21st regarding the Unisys surface temperature map. You had deleted that conversation chain which clearly showed the direction of the conversation. regarding the dates.
Secondly regarding the difference maps in question in your post 57, isn't amazing how NOAA's map differs from your map? Could it because the Unisys surface map you used is interactive and uses different color scale? Compare the two scales, they are different. Funny you missed that tidbit.
Below is a NOAA map, compare for yourself.
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it's still cold in the upper midwest and northeast. why is that then?it was 72 in Chicago Monday, no snow for awhile now. Tuesday, the temps were below normal in the high 30s. It's spring in a day. temperatures will fluctuate like they do every year.And in Minneapolis, it was over 70 degrees on Sunday.
Last year at this time we had a foot of snow on my yard. This year, I haven't had any snow on my yard for over two weeks.
Funny dat!
It's the effect of El Niño! Personally, living in the Great Lakes region, El Niño is a positive for us folks. Of course, that's just my biased opinion because typically the weather is pretty decent. I lived in this neck of the woods since 1998 and I haven't lived a bad El Niño yet. But usually it sucks for the people in the North East.
El Niño has arrived, says NOAA
El Nino has arrived says NOAA Earth EarthSky
And then El Nino was GONE.......................... Simply because this month the ocean temps in region 3-4 dropped by 0.5 deg C a whole 10 days after their BIG announcement....
Billy_Bob, do you happen to have a link?
El Niño set to strengthen but longer-term trend uncertain
17 March 2015
Weak El Niño conditions observed since October 2014 are expected to strengthen over the next few months and may turn into a substantial event, but there is a great deal of uncertainty beyond June 2015, current forecasts suggest.
An El Niño event is a prolonged period of abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It goes hand in hand with changes in atmospheric conditions and can have strong repercussions on global weather patterns. El Niño can also significantly affect the global average temperature and hence influence the global warming signal.
“The latest ECMWF seasonal forecast from 1st March 2015 shows that in the coming months the equatorial Pacific surface temperature is expected to rise further, giving a moderate strengthening of El Niño conditions,” said Tim Stockdale, the head of ECMWF’s Seasonal and Long-Range Forecasting Group.
El Ni o set to strengthen but longer-term trend uncertain ECMWF
Here is a second opinion by NOAA, that agrees with the above report:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
and then there's you! Talk about your stupid. I looked up stupid in the dictionary and there was the word mamooth.Some people say there's no such thing as a stupid question.
jc disproves that.
Wow. Look at all the frozen water. Water comes from heated large bodies of water. It's called evaporation. During this time of the year, we call it "snow" and "ice". A lot of heated water to make that much ice.Budapest is colder than hell too.
it's still cold in the upper Midwest and Northeast. why is that then?it was 72 in Chicago Monday, no snow for awhile now. Tuesday, the temps were below normal in the high 30s. It's spring in a day. temperatures will fluctuate like they do every year.And in Minneapolis, it was over 70 degrees on Sunday.
Last year at this time we had a foot of snow on my yard. This year, I haven't had any snow on my yard for over two weeks.
Funny dat!
It's the effect of El Niño! Personally, living in the Great Lakes region, El Niño is a positive for us folks. Of course, that's just my biased opinion because typically the weather is pretty decent. I lived in this neck of the woods since 1998 and I haven't lived a bad El Niño yet. But usually it sucks for the people in the North East.
El Niño has arrived, says NOAA
El Nino has arrived says NOAA Earth EarthSky
And then El Nino was GONE.......................... Simply because this month the ocean temps in region 3-4 dropped by 0.5 deg C a whole 10 days after their BIG announcement....
Billy_Bob, do you happen to have a link?
El Niño set to strengthen but longer-term trend uncertain
17 March 2015
Weak El Niño conditions observed since October 2014 are expected to strengthen over the next few months and may turn into a substantial event, but there is a great deal of uncertainty beyond June 2015, current forecasts suggest.
An El Niño event is a prolonged period of abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It goes hand in hand with changes in atmospheric conditions and can have strong repercussions on global weather patterns. El Niño can also significantly affect the global average temperature and hence influence the global warming signal.
“The latest ECMWF seasonal forecast from 1st March 2015 shows that in the coming months the equatorial Pacific surface temperature is expected to rise further, giving a moderate strengthening of El Niño conditions,” said Tim Stockdale, the head of ECMWF’s Seasonal and Long-Range Forecasting Group.
El Ni o set to strengthen but longer-term trend uncertain ECMWF
Here is a second opinion by NOAA, that agrees with the above report:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
not in Chicago, we're running way colder than normal.it's still cold in the upper Midwest and Northeast. why is that then?it was 72 in Chicago Monday, no snow for awhile now. Tuesday, the temps were below normal in the high 30s. It's spring in a day. temperatures will fluctuate like they do every year.
It's the effect of El Niño! Personally, living in the Great Lakes region, El Niño is a positive for us folks. Of course, that's just my biased opinion because typically the weather is pretty decent. I lived in this neck of the woods since 1998 and I haven't lived a bad El Niño yet. But usually it sucks for the people in the North East.
El Niño has arrived, says NOAA
El Nino has arrived says NOAA Earth EarthSky
And then El Nino was GONE.......................... Simply because this month the ocean temps in region 3-4 dropped by 0.5 deg C a whole 10 days after their BIG announcement....
Billy_Bob, do you happen to have a link?
El Niño set to strengthen but longer-term trend uncertain
17 March 2015
Weak El Niño conditions observed since October 2014 are expected to strengthen over the next few months and may turn into a substantial event, but there is a great deal of uncertainty beyond June 2015, current forecasts suggest.
An El Niño event is a prolonged period of abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It goes hand in hand with changes in atmospheric conditions and can have strong repercussions on global weather patterns. El Niño can also significantly affect the global average temperature and hence influence the global warming signal.
“The latest ECMWF seasonal forecast from 1st March 2015 shows that in the coming months the equatorial Pacific surface temperature is expected to rise further, giving a moderate strengthening of El Niño conditions,” said Tim Stockdale, the head of ECMWF’s Seasonal and Long-Range Forecasting Group.
El Ni o set to strengthen but longer-term trend uncertain ECMWF
Here is a second opinion by NOAA, that agrees with the above report:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
It's always colder in the Midwest at this time of year, but we are running warmer than normal and we have had much less snow which is consistent with el Nino weather.
The Northeast is getting socked like they always do with el Nino weather patterns.
All I can say is that I have lived with quite a few el Nino weather patterns since I moved to Minneapolis 1998.
So, I'll take my observations and weather talk by the local weather media any day over your politically biased opinion.
Wow. Look at all the frozen water. Water comes from heated large bodies of water. It's called evaporation. During this time of the year, we call it "snow" and "ice". A lot of heated water to make that much ice.Budapest is colder than hell too.
