BOOM! Newest ABC natl poll: Trump 48% Crooked Hillary 46%!!

[Toro]

The one thing that appears to be out of whack is the breakdown amongst young people. Other polls have Clinton leading by as much as 2:1, and in this poll, it's a dead heat. There are also a lot of Sanders supporters who say they won't support Clinton but less than Republicans who said they wouldn't support Trump a month ago. They will likely swing back to Clinton once Bernie drops out in the same way that those Republicans said they wouldn't support Trump have come back to him.

But ...

Trump has pulled even in the RCP averages, and that can't be dismissed.

Despite all the talk about the map being scrambled, I'm wondering if it is going to be any different than other recent elections.

We'll see what happens. According to Sam Wang, the polls at this point are not only unreliable, they are worse than any other time of the year.

I do think Trump has a lot of momentum, and I don't see it slowing down.

hiLIARy is a tired old lady that nobody wants to hear.....and Bernie's refusal to go away is taking a toll.

I agree that Bernie is taking his toll. But he won't win. And there is little to suggest that the Democrats won't coalesce around Hillary in the same way that Republicans have around Trump. Trump has gained on Hillary because Republicans have rallied behind him (as you said they would).

In fact, what may be most interesting about this race is how similar it looks like other races. This is from the latest WSJ/NBC poll, which has Clinton up by 3.

In many ways, the latest Journal/NBC News poll mirrors the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. The splits between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump among men, women, African-Americans and Hispanics in the May poll are roughly equivalent to the margins that the 2012 candidates notched with each segment of the electorate, as recorded by exit polls that year.

In the May poll, Mr. Trump leads among men by 9 percentage points, compared with Mr. Romney’s 7-point advantage among men in 2012. Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, leads among women by 13 percentage points, compared with Mr. Obama’s 11-point edge in 2012. She maintains 48- and 79-point leads with Hispanics and African-American voters, respectively.

In one finding that will be watched closely, Mr. Trump tops Mrs. Clinton among white voters by 16 points, compared with Mr. Romney’s 20-point margin among white voters in 2012. That difference, if it persists, would be important, as white non-Hispanic voters are expected to account for about 69% of the electorate.
​

But if you are a Trump supporter, this is probably your best news of any of these polls.

Perhaps the best news in the poll for Mr. Trump is that he outpaces Mrs. Clinton, 46% to 43%, in the 12 most competitive presidential battleground states—states that Mr. Obama won by 1.5 percentage points in 2012. The presumptive Republican nominee does particularly well in the South and Midwest.​

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Donald Trump Narrows

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Clinton-Sanders ticket could happen
With his chances of capturing the Democratic presidential nomination virtually nil, Sen. Bernie Sanders declined to rule out accepting an offer to be Hillary Clinton’s running mate.

 

[miketx]

I wonder if any of the people here who are supporting Trump actually follow the guy on Twitter.

If you do.....and you still think he's the kind of guy you want as the face of this nation....you might just be an idiot.

The face of the nation for to long has been puppets that do not have our interest at heart. They perform for the highest bidder. So I say give Trump a shot. He can't be any worse then the muslim cocksucker we've had or any of the rest of them.

 

[miketx]

Personally, I think Sanders is on Trump's payroll, and is a plant to badger her until she knows firsthand the defeat she sorely deserves.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I wonder if any of the people here who are supporting Trump actually follow the guy on Twitter.

If you do.....and you still think he's the kind of guy you want as the face of this nation....you might just be an idiot.

The face of the nation for to long has been puppets that do not have our interest at heart. They perform for the highest bidder. So I say give Trump a shot. He can't be any worse then the muslim cocksucke we've had or any of the rest of them.

too
who do not
interests
than

Again you advertise your stupidity. Obama has done a good job. You are poorly informed and easily influenced by people who don't know how to be honest. You think white people don't get a fair shake in this nation. That makes you stupid.

You say.."give Trump a shot" like we are talking about coaching a HS basketball team. Wise up.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Personally, I think Sanders is on Trump's payroll, and is a plant to badger her until she knows firsthand the defeat she sorely deserves.

That is also stupid. Why didn't you ever learn to avoid saying every thought that comes into your head?

 

[miketx]

Personally, I think Sanders is on Trump's payroll, and is a plant to badger her until she knows firsthand the defeat she sorely deserves.

That is also stupid. Why didn't you ever learn to avoid saying every thought that comes into your head?

So it's stupid because you say so.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Personally, I think Sanders is on Trump's payroll, and is a plant to badger her until she knows firsthand the defeat she sorely deserves.

That is also stupid. Why didn't you ever learn to avoid saying every thought that comes into your head?

So it's stupid because you say so.

No. It's stupid because it's stupid. For you to believe that Bernie Sanders is being paid by Donald Trump to stay in this race is about as stupid a thing as a person can believe. And...then....you actually said it. And now....you are actually defending it. You aren't even trying to lie and tell us that you were "just kidding".

Listen. Believe me. I can tell you this. What you said was very, very stupid. Tremendously stupid. Unbelievably stupid. Okay?

 

[miketx]

Personally, I think Sanders is on Trump's payroll, and is a plant to badger her until she knows firsthand the defeat she sorely deserves.

That is also stupid. Why didn't you ever learn to avoid saying every thought that comes into your head?

So it's stupid because you say so.

No. It's stupid because it's stupid. For you to believe that Bernie Sanders is being paid by Donald Trump to stay in this race is about as stupid a thing as a person can believe. And...then....you actually said it. And now....you are actually defending it. You aren't even trying to lie and tell us that you were just kidding.

Listen. Believe me. I can tell you this. What you said was very, very stupid. Tremendously stupid. Unbelievably stupid. Okay?

Trans meta mega stupid? Quasar stupid? So stupid that no intelligence can escape? That stupid? You got me confused with your libtard queers you run with.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Personally, I think Sanders is on Trump's payroll, and is a plant to badger her until she knows firsthand the defeat she sorely deserves.

That is also stupid. Why didn't you ever learn to avoid saying every thought that comes into your head?

So it's stupid because you say so.

No. It's stupid because it's stupid. For you to believe that Bernie Sanders is being paid by Donald Trump to stay in this race is about as stupid a thing as a person can believe. And...then....you actually said it. And now....you are actually defending it. You aren't even trying to lie and tell us that you were just kidding.

Listen. Believe me. I can tell you this. What you said was very, very stupid. Tremendously stupid. Unbelievably stupid. Okay?

Trans meta mega stupid? Quasar stupid? So stupid that no intelligence can escape? That stupid? You got me confused with your libtard queers you run with.

So stupid that you didn't even get the joke. Believe me!

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Reality Slaps Republicans As One Number Shows Why Trump Is Likely To Lose



The May national polls have no value when predicting the results of the likely head to head general election contest, but there is a statistic in the Real Clear Politics average of polls that should encourage Democrats while frightening Republicans.
Here is the latest RCP average:

What you will notice is that Donald Trump never climbs above 43%. Hillary Clinton has the potential to get into the 50s, but Trump has been stuck at 43% or below since July of 2015.

John McCain got 45.6% in the vote in 2008. Mitt Romney got 47.1% of the popular vote in 2012. Donald Trump is on pace to perform 3-4 points worse than Romney and McCain each did in 2008 and 2012. Trump is also currently enjoying a post presumptive nominee bump in the polls, which is likely to evaporate once the Democratic primary ends.

The average of polls shows that Trump has never led Clinton with a majority of the electorate. Donald Trump’s ceiling may be closer to 45% than 51%. Trump is a low upside nominee because of his high name recognition and the saturation media coverage that he has received. There is no way for Trump to introduce himself to voters or redefine himself with the electorate.

Hillary Clinton doesn’t have the whole Democratic Party behind her yet, and Trump still can’t break 43%. This one fact is the biggest reason why Donald Trump is likely to lose in November. Trump could be peaking now, and things may get much uglier for Republicans by the time voters are ready to go to the polls in November

average of polls, average of polls 2016 election, donald trump poll, hillary clinton poll

 

[Indeependent]

Any Liberals here broke?
If so, can any of you lend me 85 Million?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Trump cannot re-invent himself, we all know who and what are Hillary, so I think she has the odds.

But I am voting for Gary Johnson.

 

[Redfish]

Trump cannot re-invent himself, we all know who and what are Hillary, so I think she has the odds.

But I am voting for Gary Johnson.

Gary Johnson has as much chance as Homer Simpson. But waste your vote if it somehow makes you feel good.

but remember, Perot voters elected Clinton the first time. Do you really want Johnson voters to elect another Clinton? Think!

 

[JakeStarkey]

Trump cannot re-invent himself, we all know who and what are Hillary, so I think she has the odds.

But I am voting for Gary Johnson.

Gary Johnson has as much chance as Homer Simpson. But waste your vote if it somehow makes you feel good.

but remember, Perot voters elected Clinton the first time. Do you really want Johnson voters to elect another Clinton? Think!

Both Clinton and Bush were equally hurt by Perot.

 

[Correll]

Reasoned and civil debate has had zero affect on far right minds.

Says that man that thinks that the very act of MENTIONING Whites as a voting block is racist, even though he is CONSTANTLY discussion the voting habits of blacks, browns, women, young people, ect, ect ect.

But that's "different" when he does it.

 

[Correll]

What a delightful, inspiring choice we have.

A Trump victory will be a huge blow to Political Correctness, Mac.

YOu have to admit that reasoned and civil debate, like you have tried, has had zero affect on any minds.

You're banking your head against a Brick Wall, reinforced with Steel Rods.

Trump is smashing though.

Okay, admittedly, my forehead is a little sore; and yes, I hate seeing what the Regressive Left continues to do to this country (and liberalism, for that matter).

But as maniacal as I am about PC, that one quality is not enough to overcome (what is to me) the fact that he is simply not someone I want in the White House.

I'm sure as hell not thrilled about the alternative (unless I vote third party), which would require my aligning with some really nasty and dishonest and hateful people.

This is why I'm giving serious consideration to drinking heavily the first week of November. I won't remember who I voted for!


.

1. YOu have to realize that his abrasive public persona is just a carefully crafted tool, that does not reflect his real ability to lead and get things done is a reasonable fashion.

2. HIs policies are MORE reasonable than most. Hell, he's not even conservative.

3. So, what's the problem?

 

[Correll]

I wonder if any of the people here who are supporting Trump actually follow the guy on Twitter.

If you do.....and you still think he's the kind of guy you want as the face of this nation....you might just be an idiot.

Says one of the most unpleasant people on this site.

lol.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I wonder if any of the people here who are supporting Trump actually follow the guy on Twitter.

If you do.....and you still think he's the kind of guy you want as the face of this nation....you might just be an idiot.

Says one of the most unpleasant people on this site.

lol.

Of course. I'm very unpleasant. To some people.

 

[Correll]

The one thing that appears to be out of whack is the breakdown amongst young people. Other polls have Clinton leading by as much as 2:1, and in this poll, it's a dead heat. There are also a lot of Sanders supporters who say they won't support Clinton but less than Republicans who said they wouldn't support Trump a month ago. They will likely swing back to Clinton once Bernie drops out in the same way that those Republicans said they wouldn't support Trump have come back to him.

But ...

Trump has pulled even in the RCP averages, and that can't be dismissed.

Despite all the talk about the map being scrambled, I'm wondering if it is going to be any different than other recent elections.

We'll see what happens. According to Sam Wang, the polls at this point are not only unreliable, they are worse than any other time of the year.

I do think Trump has a lot of momentum, and I don't see it slowing down.

hiLIARy is a tired old lady that nobody wants to hear.....and Bernie's refusal to go away is taking a toll.

I agree that Bernie is taking his toll. But he won't win. And there is little to suggest that the Democrats won't coalesce around Hillary in the same way that Republicans have around Trump. Trump has gained on Hillary because Republicans have rallied behind him (as you said they would).

In fact, what may be most interesting about this race is how similar it looks like other races. This is from the latest WSJ/NBC poll, which has Clinton up by 3.

In many ways, the latest Journal/NBC News poll mirrors the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. The splits between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump among men, women, African-Americans and Hispanics in the May poll are roughly equivalent to the margins that the 2012 candidates notched with each segment of the electorate, as recorded by exit polls that year.
....s​

THis supports something I've been saying for a long time. That to a great extent, voting patterns are NOT about the issues.

​