Comet ISON Thread #1

[Wroberson]

I know it's early, but this comet presents itself as a big threat as it is predicted to pass through Earth's plane of orbit around the Sun and leave a large trail of ice and dust in our path.

Here is the official orbit diagram:

JPL Small-Body Database Browser

If you take it November, you will see when and where ISON will pass through our plane of orbit around the Sun. It's around November 1, 2013.

When you continue the orbit, Earth is projected to be right in the area where ISON passes through Earth's orbital plane. That date is January 15, 2014

Here is the official warning of an imminent meteor shower by NASA.

Comet ISON Meteor Shower - NASA Science

It's low key, but if you research other meteor showers which derive from comets, every year we do see meteors from comets that passed by decades ago. The largest shower are the Leonids that come from comet Swift-Tuttle.

I'm high on this comet and it's meteor shower. Since it's new and the first time this close to the Sun, I am expecting something on the scale of folklore and the meteor shower of 1833.

 

[Mr. H.]

Could be an awesome show.

Why create any more threads?

 

[Old Rocks]

Comet ISON Meteor Shower - NASA Science

Veteran meteor researcher Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario has been using a computer to model the trajectory of dust ejected by Comet ISON, and his findings suggest that an unusual meteor shower could be in the offing.

"For several days around January 12, 2014, Earth will pass through a stream of fine-grained debris from Comet ISON," says Wiegert. "The resulting shower could have some interesting properties.

According to Wiegert's computer models, the debris stream is populated with extremely tiny grains of dust, no more than a few microns wide, pushed toward Earth by the gentle radiation pressure of the sun. They will be hitting at a speed of 56 km/s or 125,000 mph. Because the particles are so small, Earth’s upper atmosphere will rapidly slow them to a stop.

"Instead of burning up in a flash of light, they will drift gently down to the Earth below," he says.

Don’t expect to notice. The invisible rain of comet dust, if it occurs, would be very slow. It can take months or even years for fine dust to settle out of the high atmosphere.

Or maybe no show at all. Depending on the amount of dust, this could have the same effect as a major volcanic eruption.

 

[Wroberson]

I used the title because I'm sure this thread will be buried on page 2 or 20 by the time the comet gets here. I would keep up the thread if there were daily updates with newer information.

I did say that NASA's official statement was low key. As for no show, I don't accept the logic simply because I am aware of the annual meteor showers caused by comet that passed by years ago. I will say that it's possible most of the particles may not be seen, but every meteor shower produces meteors worth seeing.

I have a quirky hobby. I send emails of different subjects to news and media outlets. Some are jokes, others rants, and some that are worth sending. Last year I sent a movie studio information about the asteroid DA14, or whatever it was, saying I didn't expect anything interesting because of they way I saw the trajectory. I was wrong. While a meteor use seen exploding over the USSR, you heard it yourself, it was a UFO. Unrelated to the asteroid.

I will not make that mistake again. I only said there was no hazard because the last prediction I made about an asteroid didn't pan out.

I issue a stern warning for preparedness. If not for large bursting meteors associated with the comet, but for the aftermath of all that ice and water entering the atmosphere when we go through the debris field. It might take a few months, but since it will be winter at the time and not spring or summer. I believe and I'm sure there are real scientists that have similar opinions to mine, something big may happen.

It's just too early for all the fear mongering. But a light early warning never hurts.

 

[Wroberson]

Here's is the latest information about the Comet of the Century. Sorry, the info was withheld for a month and I just got it today.

NASA telescope spots CO2 fizzing away from a 'soda-pop comet' - NBC News.com

I don't know what others are expecting from this comet, but I have a solid idea.

1. November 2013. Comet ISON will be visible between 4am and 6am near the rising Sun, Mars, LEO, and VIRGO.
2. January 2014. As the Comet comes back in to view after orbiting the Sun, it will be visible in both the AM and POM as the Sun rises and sets.
3. January 2014 Earth will migrate through the comets tail of methane, CO2 and Ices. Water ice, dry ice and methane ice.

Anyone still care about global warming? Earth is expected to take on as much as 2.2 million pound of CO2 per day as Earth traverses the tail of the comet. It could be 3-4 days worth, or close to a total of 6 to 10 million pounds of new CO2.

I for one am not a believer of the AGW theory and I have evidence and fasts that show
Earth has cooled over the last 16 years.
Earth is continuing it's cooling trend.

The trend is continuing due to one major factor. The Sun. The Sun goes through cycles. We are currently in Cycle 24 and solar output is low during the maximum. NASA and NOAA are projected that solar output became very low last week. We are now heading to minimum at very low solar output. The Sun reaching solar minimum, still in cycle 24 around 2020 when Solar Cycle 25 begins. Should the trend of low or very low solar output continues into cycle 25, there's a chance of what's called a "year without a summer".

On top of this we have the CO2 issue, both current and recent. 5 year studies show that Earth got a little warmer than the previous 5 years. There is no doubt that some areas are warming and this warming increases ocean evaporation and the increase in evaporation causes cloud cover. No one in the AGW tank has publicly brought this to anyone's attention. The reason is cloud cover blocks heat and sunlight and causes cooling. And anything dealing with cooling is adverse to the AGW theory and it's not what they want the public to learn. It kills the creditability of AGW science.

Until another update with new info, be prepared baby, it's cold out there.

 

[Old Rocks]

Here's is the latest information about the Comet of the Century. Sorry, the info was withheld for a month and I just got it today.

NASA telescope spots CO2 fizzing away from a 'soda-pop comet' - NBC News.com

I don't know what others are expecting from this comet, but I have a solid idea.

1. November 2013. Comet ISON will be visible between 4am and 6am near the rising Sun, Mars, LEO, and VIRGO.
2. January 2014. As the Comet comes back in to view after orbiting the Sun, it will be visible in both the AM and POM as the Sun rises and sets.
3. January 2014 Earth will migrate through the comets tail of methane, CO2 and Ices. Water ice, dry ice and methane ice.

Anyone still care about global warming? Earth is expected to take on as much as 2.2 million pound of CO2 per day as Earth traverses the tail of the comet. It could be 3-4 days worth, or close to a total of 6 to 10 million pounds of new CO2.
I for one am not a believer of the AGW theory and I have evidence and fasts that show
Earth has cooled over the last 16 years.
Earth is continuing it's cooling trend.

The trend is continuing due to one major factor. The Sun. The Sun goes through cycles. We are currently in Cycle 24 and solar output is low during the maximum. NASA and NOAA are projected that solar output became very low last week. We are now heading to minimum at very low solar output. The Sun reaching solar minimum, still in cycle 24 around 2020 when Solar Cycle 25 begins. Should the trend of low or very low solar output continues into cycle 25, there's a chance of what's called a "year without a summer".

On top of this we have the CO2 issue, both current and recent. 5 year studies show that Earth got a little warmer than the previous 5 years. There is no doubt that some areas are warming and this warming increases ocean evaporation and the increase in evaporation causes cloud cover. No one in the AGW tank has publicly brought this to anyone's attention. The reason is cloud cover blocks heat and sunlight and causes cooling. And anything dealing with cooling is adverse to the AGW theory and it's not what they want the public to learn. It kills the creditability of AGW science.

Until another update with new info, be prepared baby, it's cold out there.

Well, your worst projection of the new CO2 that the comet could contribute to the atmosphere is miniscule when compared to the daily contribution of mankind. It is not measured in millions of pounds, but rather in millions of tons. About 50 million tons daily to be exact. And that is after deducting for the uptake of CO2 by plants and the ocean. You can find the numbers here;

Global Carbon Emissions | CO2 Now | Current CO2

And that is for 2010, higher numbers now.

 

[Old Rocks]

Here's is the latest information about the Comet of the Century. Sorry, the info was withheld for a month and I just got it today.

NASA telescope spots CO2 fizzing away from a 'soda-pop comet' - NBC News.com

I don't know what others are expecting from this comet, but I have a solid idea.

1. November 2013. Comet ISON will be visible between 4am and 6am near the rising Sun, Mars, LEO, and VIRGO.
2. January 2014. As the Comet comes back in to view after orbiting the Sun, it will be visible in both the AM and POM as the Sun rises and sets.
3. January 2014 Earth will migrate through the comets tail of methane, CO2 and Ices. Water ice, dry ice and methane ice.

Anyone still care about global warming? Earth is expected to take on as much as 2.2 million pound of CO2 per day as Earth traverses the tail of the comet. It could be 3-4 days worth, or close to a total of 6 to 10 million pounds of new CO2.

I for one am not a believer of the AGW theory and I have evidence and fasts that show
Earth has cooled over the last 16 years.
Earth is continuing it's cooling trend.

The trend is continuing due to one major factor. The Sun. The Sun goes through cycles. We are currently in Cycle 24 and solar output is low during the maximum. NASA and NOAA are projected that solar output became very low last week. We are now heading to minimum at very low solar output. The Sun reaching solar minimum, still in cycle 24 around 2020 when Solar Cycle 25 begins. Should the trend of low or very low solar output continues into cycle 25, there's a chance of what's called a "year without a summer".

On top of this we have the CO2 issue, both current and recent. 5 year studies show that Earth got a little warmer than the previous 5 years. There is no doubt that some areas are warming and this warming increases ocean evaporation and the increase in evaporation causes cloud cover. No one in the AGW tank has publicly brought this to anyone's attention. The reason is cloud cover blocks heat and sunlight and causes cooling. And anything dealing with cooling is adverse to the AGW theory and it's not what they want the public to learn. It kills the creditability of AGW science.

Until another update with new info, be prepared baby, it's cold out there.

What you believe is irrelevant. Here are what the physics and facts are;

The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

 

[Old Rocks]

Personally, more worried about this sucker breaking up at the closest approach to the sun, and sending a large chunk our way. 'Lucifer's Hammer', by Jerry Pournelle. A good read.

 

[Wroberson]

New video about Cometary Sciences:

TruTube.TV - The Electric Comet Full Documentary

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Im not worried-- the Global Warming will melt the ice

 

[Mr. H.]

Personally, more worried about this sucker breaking up at the closest approach to the sun, and sending a large chunk our way. 'Lucifer's Hammer', by Jerry Pournelle. A good read.

Wouldn't it have to be fairly close to the sun for that to happen? The pieces would be drawn into the sun's gravity. It is more massive than the earth after all. Shoemaker Levi 9... Shomaker Levi 9... Shomaker Levi 9... Shoemaker Levi 9...

 

[Wroberson]

Here's the latest video of Comet ISON:

COMET ISON

 

[mamooth]

Wouldn't it have to be fairly close to the sun for that to happen? The pieces would be drawn into the sun's gravity.

Nah. It's like how the rings of Saturn formed, when a moon got too close to Saturn and was ripped apart by tidal forces. All the bits kept orbiting Saturn, and didn't get sucked in to Saturn.

Same with the comet. Tidal forces (the pull of the Sun's gravity being stronger at one end than the other) could rip it apart, but the pieces would continue moving together in almost the same orbit. Essentially, that means no chance that a big chunk could hit earth. Only some left-behind blown-off dust and ice bits will be hitting earth.

About ISON, it's less luminous than originally predicted, with less of a tail. Current predictions have it getting about as bright as Venus.

 

[Mr. H.]

So the sun will have Saturn-like rings, only made of ice?

 

[orogenicman]

I may have a chance of imaging the comet on October 3 during my once monthly imaging session at the observatory. If I do get a chance, and it comes out okay, I will post it here for all to view.

 

[Wroberson]

With NASA closed, any official updates will be delayed.
The comet is just entering the space between Mars and Earth.
It's all up to the amateurs now.

As for N.E.O. no images will be scanned for new asteroids, or near Earth objects.
Here's the most current list: NEO Earth Close Approaches
Comet ISON will be here eventually should it ever open again.

Also the National Parks should not be closed. The land should be open, free.
Lock the outhouses and pit toilets, but they should restrict us from our land.

 

[orogenicman]

I am more concerned that this comet will be a serious disappointment as far as comets go. That said, I plan to image it hopefully next week if the weather cooperates.

 

[Luissa]

First glance at the thread title and I read it completely wrong. Wow!

 

[Wroberson]

I will be here, Chicago, and out in the desert in November and December.
I hope I can get a good view.

You can get the today's images of comet ISON here.

Spaceweather.com Realtime Image Gallery

The last I saw a few days ago was that the comet is currently magnitude 10.

 

[Wroberson]

I will be here, Chicago, and out in the desert in November and December.
I hope I can get a good view.

You can get the today's images of comet ISON here.

Spaceweather.com Realtime Image Gallery

The last I saw a few days ago was that the comet is currently magnitude 10.