How Carter Beat Reagan (Or how polls got it all wrong)

[Vigilante]

We've already seen this year the Bern, behind double digits in the Michigan Polls, beat the Hildebeast! Trump has it MUCH EASIER!

The American Spectator ^ | 9.25.12 | Jeffrey Lord

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

That's right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.

In a series of nine stories in 1980 on "Crucial States" -- battleground states as they are known today -- the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.

All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media -- used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 -- or Barack Obama in 2012.

 

[IcebergSlim]

We've already seen this year the Bern, behind double digits in the Michigan Polls, beat the Hildebeast! Trump has it MUCH EASIER!

The American Spectator ^ | 9.25.12 | Jeffrey Lord

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

That's right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.

In a series of nine stories in 1980 on "Crucial States" -- battleground states as they are known today -- the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.

All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media -- used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 -- or Barack Obama in 2012.

uh.....is Mr. Lord smoking glass?

It was Reich Wing Imbecile media which was predicting a Mitt victory in 2012....

 

[HappyJoy]

Have to go back over 35 years to find an election the polls got wrong? Yet, you only have to go back to the last election to see how Republicans handle polls correctly showing their candidate eating it.

 

[Vigilante]

We've already seen this year the Bern, behind double digits in the Michigan Polls, beat the Hildebeast! Trump has it MUCH EASIER!

The American Spectator ^ | 9.25.12 | Jeffrey Lord

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

That's right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.

In a series of nine stories in 1980 on "Crucial States" -- battleground states as they are known today -- the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.

All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media -- used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 -- or Barack Obama in 2012.

uh.....is Mr. Lord smoking glass?

It was Reich Wing Imbecile media which was predicting a Mitt victory in 2012....

Speaking of imbeciles...NeedleDickTheBugFucker is #1 on USMB!

huffpost predicts a romney win in 2012 - - Yahoo Search Results

 

[HappyJoy]

Holy shit the OP article is from 2012 before the election and begins with:

Dick Morris is right.

Here's his column on "Why the Polls Understate the Romney Vote."

Here's something Dick Morris doesn't mention. And he's charitable.

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

It's trying to say that because of the 1980 polling was off that somehow Romney was going to win. That obviously didn't happen and this thread only demonstrates that conservatives just like to make shit up to feel better about their chances.

EDIT: correction, when I say conservatives above I mean the far right wingnuts.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Just look at the variance in current polling where the same set of candidates can be ahead by wildly different amounts and behind at the same time.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Holy shit the OP article is from 2012 before the election and begins with:

Dick Morris is right.

Here's his column on "Why the Polls Understate the Romney Vote."

Here's something Dick Morris doesn't mention. And he's charitable.

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

It's trying to say that because of the 1980 polling was off that somehow Romney was going to win. That obviously didn't happen and this thread only demonstrates that conservatives just like to make shit up to feel better about their chances.

No, it is saying that all the polls are flawed, not just the ones that predicted Carter victory or Romney victory.

A lot of polling is bought precisely to sway public opinion that they candidate will win or can win and they know it isnt accurate.

 

[HappyJoy]

Just look at the variance in current polling where the same set of candidates can be ahead by wildly different amounts and behind at the same time.

Example? Also, you should't rely on the results of a single poll.

 

[HappyJoy]

Holy shit the OP article is from 2012 before the election and begins with:

Dick Morris is right.

Here's his column on "Why the Polls Understate the Romney Vote."

Here's something Dick Morris doesn't mention. And he's charitable.

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

It's trying to say that because of the 1980 polling was off that somehow Romney was going to win. That obviously didn't happen and this thread only demonstrates that conservatives just like to make shit up to feel better about their chances.

No, it is saying that all the polls are flawed, not just the ones that predicted Carter victory or Romney victory.

A lot of polling is bought precisely to sway public opinion that they candidate will win or can win and they know it isnt accurate.

No, it's clearly saying not to trust the 2012 election polls as they didn't show Romney winning and they used the poster boy of getting it wrong in 2012 to show you. The article was written in September of 2012.

Anyway, you never go by a single poll, you use a polling aggregate like RCP or 538.com and more often than not they are right. I think you guys are just bracing yourself for those Clinton v Trump matchups.

 

[JimBowie1958]

No, it's clearly saying not to trust the 2012 election polls as they didn't show Romney winning and they used the poster boy of getting it wrong in 2012 to show you. The article was written in September of 2012.

It is amazing how you take this acute angle perspective on what was posted, disregarding the posters own signals, then insist that it is the one and only interpretation of what he intended.

roflmao

 

[HappyJoy]

No, it's clearly saying not to trust the 2012 election polls as they didn't show Romney winning and they used the poster boy of getting it wrong in 2012 to show you. The article was written in September of 2012.

It is amazing how you take this acute angle perspective on what was posted, disregarding the posters own signals, then insist that it is the one and only interpretation of what he intended.

roflmao

The article was written before the 2012 election, not after and they used Dick "the Dick" Morris to proclaim the polls wrong, the article was only making the argument because they wanted Romney to win and a couple months later we find out just how wrong the American Spectator and Dick Morris were, very.

You said "all polls are flawed", what do you mean by that? That they are not 100% on the money? Nobody expects them to be, they are simply the best predictors. Of course there are bad polls and bad polling firms and they have a track record we can see. Here for example: FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

So, maybe you were surprised in 2012 when Romney lost, I wasn't, I looked at the polls and the people who know how to read them. You on the other hand think it's just a huge conspiracy.

 

[HappyJoy]

Gallup got 1980 right Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Avatar4321]

Holy shit the OP article is from 2012 before the election and begins with:

Dick Morris is right.

Here's his column on "Why the Polls Understate the Romney Vote."

Here's something Dick Morris doesn't mention. And he's charitable.

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

It's trying to say that because of the 1980 polling was off that somehow Romney was going to win. That obviously didn't happen and this thread only demonstrates that conservatives just like to make shit up to feel better about their chances.

No, it is saying that all the polls are flawed, not just the ones that predicted Carter victory or Romney victory.

A lot of polling is bought precisely to sway public opinion that they candidate will win or can win and they know it isnt accurate.

Yes polls are flawed.

But this constant argument is that Trump will beat Hillary. There is no evidence for that. The evidence is quite contrary.

Will he? Maybe. Maybe not. You're certainly is ridiculous especially with his huge negatives before they start going after him and where he already puts multiple red States in play for them.