Is Jeb Bush already toast?

[NYcarbineer]

Bill Bradley and Bob Kerrey for starters. From another angle, Lieberman was a poor choice. Had Gore picked Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, who was on the short list for VP, he would won Florida easily and thus the presidency.

Bill Bradley ran against Gore and lost badly.

For Bob Kerrey, not more than a few months after the 2000 election, it was revealed he had engaged in serious war crimes in Vietnam. (His unit had killed civilians, including children, and reported them as enemy Killed in Action.) Those things would have come out a lot earlier had he gotten additional scrutiny in 2000.

Now, I think Gore ran an awful campaign in 2000. But he was probably better than anything else the Democrats had at the time.

That doesn't make Bill Bradley a bad candidate. The point was, the Democrats only lose when they run poor campaigners. The issues all favor the Democrats.

 

[SwingVoter]

12 years of negative private sector job growth, poor stock market returns, and bumbling speeches was enough. I'd vote for Rubio, but no chance I'd vote for Jeb. He's not just a Bush, he's a pussy.

 

[Mertex]

only problem I ever had with the booshs is their immigration policies . Other than that I thought that they did pretty good work Luddley !! Just saying .

Really? Tanking the country sounds pretty good to you? Geez, no wonder you would vote for another one....or any of the clowns in the clown train.

 

[Mertex]

Shrub II might be toast for now, but right wingers will be making that decision, and look at who he is up against. The main crazies will each have a week or two in the lime light until they screw it up and everybody moves on to the next in line. In the end, they will pretend they wanted Shrub II all along.

Yepp, just like they did with Romney.

 

[Mertex]

The second, not so much. Bill Clinton was the Governor of an even smaller state and still, he bested Bush '41 in 1992, so I am not so sure that the size of a state plays much of a role.

You must have misunderstood my statement. Bill Clinton was the governor of a smaller state, true, but he was a Rhodes Scholar. And the point I was making was in reference to Walker not even having a college degree.

A mid-size state, that is "red" and doesn't rate education as necessary to be President is not the way the rest of the country thinks.

 

[auditor0007]

I have been reading a great deal, especially from Conservative websites, and the concensus I am reading is that Jeb has screwed the pooch this last with with his answer to the Iraq War question and the three subsequent days of flip-flopping and waffle'ing.

I mean, come on, it's pretty hard for a Republican to screw up a softball question on FOX, of all stations.

If polling that starts as of this weekend starts to show Jeb's numbers tanking, I guess we will all know.

But I do think that the big winner on the Republican side this last week was Scott Walker. As a good substitute for the man that the GOP establishment has been wanting, all he has to do is to wait, look good and not screw up. Easy, right?



Your thoughts? Did Jeb Bush sink his ship before it even got out of the harbor, or is there still hope for a third Bush presidency within a span of about 25 years?

Anything could happen on the Republican side. Hell, Cruz could even find a way to win it if everyone can keep enough money to stay in the game. I honestly can see a scenario where nobody wins the nomination on the first ballot, and then anything could happen. The only thing that I would be willing to bet money on is that Marco Rubio is on the ticket as VP if he does not win the nomination, provided that Cruz is not the nominee.

 

[Interpol]

Jeb seems to have discovered that in his return to politics, the people he's talking to have evolved into a species he's unable to connect to.

He didn't do a complete 180 on Iraq because of dissenting moderate or progressive voters; it was because Fox and the conservative media sphere dissented, to our surprise. Even much of the Republican party these days has come to assess Iraq as a big and costly mistake, and the fault of his brother.

His immigration stance is perfectly moderate and reasonable. It reflects the same position over 60% of Americans share: allow illegal immigrants without criminal records to have guest worker status so they can stay and get a spot at the back of the immigration line, so long as they jump through a number of hoops, like learning English and paying back-taxes and other penalties.

President Reagan signed blanket amnesty. What Jeb is for and what Obama's been pushing for years are much more conservative than what Reagan passed. But even though some 40-odd percent of Republicans share this moderate stance, he's had to back away altogether because that right flank screams blasphemy at anything other than installing an electric fence across the southern border.

Jeb just doesn't have any love from the Tee Pee's or the religious right. Seems he has the corporate wing only. He'll suck in Iowa, but he'll rebound in New Hampshire and take a real lead when he wins Florida. Who else is there to seriously challenge him in the those two places? I used to think Christie and Rubio had real shots at it, but it feels like their stock is down, too.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jeb seems to have discovered that in his return to politics, the people he's talking to have evolved into a species he's unable to connect to.

He didn't do a complete 180 on Iraq because of dissenting moderate or progressive voters; it was because Fox and the conservative media sphere dissented, to our surprise. Even much of the Republican party these days has come to assess Iraq as a big and costly mistake, and the fault of his brother.

His immigration stance is perfectly moderate and reasonable. It reflects the same position over 60% of Americans share: allow illegal immigrants without criminal records to have guest worker status so they can stay and get a spot at the back of the immigration line, so long as they jump through a number of hoops, like learning English and paying back-taxes and other penalties.

President Reagan signed blanket amnesty. What Jeb is for and what Obama's been pushing for years are much more conservative than what Reagan passed. But even though some 40-odd percent of Republicans share this moderate stance, he's had to back away altogether because that right flank screams blasphemy at anything other than installing an electric fence across the southern border.

Jeb just doesn't have any love from the Tee Pee's or the religious right. Seems he has the corporate wing only. He'll suck in Iowa, but he'll rebound in New Hampshire and take a real lead when he wins Florida. Who else is there to seriously challenge him in the those two places? I used to think Christie and Rubio had real shots at it, but it feels like their stock is down, too.

Wait and see.

I am sensing a strong pigfuck about to happen in the GOP primaries...

 

[Statistikhengst]

I have been reading a great deal, especially from Conservative websites, and the concensus I am reading is that Jeb has screwed the pooch this last with with his answer to the Iraq War question and the three subsequent days of flip-flopping and waffle'ing.

I mean, come on, it's pretty hard for a Republican to screw up a softball question on FOX, of all stations.

If polling that starts as of this weekend starts to show Jeb's numbers tanking, I guess we will all know.

But I do think that the big winner on the Republican side this last week was Scott Walker. As a good substitute for the man that the GOP establishment has been wanting, all he has to do is to wait, look good and not screw up. Easy, right?



Your thoughts? Did Jeb Bush sink his ship before it even got out of the harbor, or is there still hope for a third Bush presidency within a span of about 25 years?

Anything could happen on the Republican side. Hell, Cruz could even find a way to win it if everyone can keep enough money to stay in the game. I honestly can see a scenario where nobody wins the nomination on the first ballot, and then anything could happen. The only thing that I would be willing to bet money on is that Marco Rubio is on the ticket as VP if he does not win the nomination, provided that Cruz is not the nominee.

Could be a scenario, indeed.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The second, not so much. Bill Clinton was the Governor of an even smaller state and still, he bested Bush '41 in 1992, so I am not so sure that the size of a state plays much of a role.

You must have misunderstood my statement. Bill Clinton was the governor of a smaller state, true, but he was a Rhodes Scholar. And the point I was making was in reference to Walker not even having a college degree.

A mid-size state, that is "red" and doesn't rate education as necessary to be President is not the way the rest of the country thinks.

Oh, now I get it.

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[JoshuaZ]

Jeb seems to have discovered that in his return to politics, the people he's talking to have evolved into a species he's unable to connect to.

He didn't do a complete 180 on Iraq because of dissenting moderate or progressive voters; it was because Fox and the conservative media sphere dissented, to our surprise. Even much of the Republican party these days has come to assess Iraq as a big and costly mistake, and the fault of his brother.

His immigration stance is perfectly moderate and reasonable. It reflects the same position over 60% of Americans share: allow illegal immigrants without criminal records to have guest worker status so they can stay and get a spot at the back of the immigration line, so long as they jump through a number of hoops, like learning English and paying back-taxes and other penalties.

President Reagan signed blanket amnesty. What Jeb is for and what Obama's been pushing for years are much more conservative than what Reagan passed. But even though some 40-odd percent of Republicans share this moderate stance, he's had to back away altogether because that right flank screams blasphemy at anything other than installing an electric fence across the southern border.

Jeb just doesn't have any love from the Tee Pee's or the religious right. Seems he has the corporate wing only. He'll suck in Iowa, but he'll rebound in New Hampshire and take a real lead when he wins Florida. Who else is there to seriously challenge him in the those two places? I used to think Christie and Rubio had real shots at it, but it feels like their stock is down, too.

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

 

[JoeB131]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

 

[JoshuaZ]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

Interesting. That seems way too high to me. Question: suppose someone made an offer to bet with you where you got $10 if Jeb wins the nomination and you paid $40 if he doesn't, would you take it?

 

[JoeB131]

Interesting. That seems way too high to me. Question: suppose someone made an offer to bet with you where you got $10 if Jeb wins the nomination and you paid $40 if he doesn't, would you take it?

Probably.

 

[JoshuaZ]

Interesting. That seems way too high to me. Question: suppose someone made an offer to bet with you where you got $10 if Jeb wins the nomination and you paid $40 if he doesn't, would you take it?

Probably.

Let's see. I'm offering that bet now. Want to take it?

 

[hortysir]

Jeb seems to have discovered that in his return to politics, the people he's talking to have evolved into a species he's unable to connect to.

He didn't do a complete 180 on Iraq because of dissenting moderate or progressive voters; it was because Fox and the conservative media sphere dissented, to our surprise. Even much of the Republican party these days has come to assess Iraq as a big and costly mistake, and the fault of his brother.

His immigration stance is perfectly moderate and reasonable. It reflects the same position over 60% of Americans share: allow illegal immigrants without criminal records to have guest worker status so they can stay and get a spot at the back of the immigration line, so long as they jump through a number of hoops, like learning English and paying back-taxes and other penalties.

President Reagan signed blanket amnesty. What Jeb is for and what Obama's been pushing for years are much more conservative than what Reagan passed. But even though some 40-odd percent of Republicans share this moderate stance, he's had to back away altogether because that right flank screams blasphemy at anything other than installing an electric fence across the southern border.

Jeb just doesn't have any love from the Tee Pee's or the religious right. Seems he has the corporate wing only. He'll suck in Iowa, but he'll rebound in New Hampshire and take a real lead when he wins Florida. Who else is there to seriously challenge him in the those two places? I used to think Christie and Rubio had real shots at it, but it feels like their stock is down, too.

I think Marco has more stock share than Jeb in Florida.
Just like Hillary, Jeb represents the Old Guard and we can see Bush pulling a Charlie on us.
Jeb might win over the blue-hairs around Lauderdale.
But Florida, with its recent "winner take all" decision, will ultimately go to Rubio (that's if the two are still in it comes the primaries, of course)

 

[hortysir]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

Too high
45%, maybe

 

[JoeB131]

Interesting. That seems way too high to me. Question: suppose someone made an offer to bet with you where you got $10 if Jeb wins the nomination and you paid $40 if he doesn't, would you take it?

Probably.

Let's see. I'm offering that bet now. Want to take it?

Since we have no practical way of carrying htat out, no.

 

[JoeB131]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

Too high
45%, maybe

I don't think so at all. The GOP establishment wants Jeb, and the GOP establishment always gets what it wants. It's how we got Romney, McCain and Dole.

 

[JoshuaZ]

Interesting. That seems way too high to me. Question: suppose someone made an offer to bet with you where you got $10 if Jeb wins the nomination and you paid $40 if he doesn't, would you take it?

Probably.

Let's see. I'm offering that bet now. Want to take it?

Since we have no practical way of carrying htat out, no.

Sure we do. When I make bets with people online I make a note Prediction Book where I'm an active member and note the prediction and the bet. Prediction book isn't designed for betting specifically, but rather for recording predictions about events that may occur and how likely you think they are, but when recording such one can note bets in the comments. The user base will then respond somewhat negatively if someone who is a regular user doesn't pay up (which would be a burden on me rather than you). I generally resolve bets through Paypal or Bitcoin after the fact- my general impression is that in this bet range slightly over half of people pay up, but you seem like a generally honest and earnest person, so I'd assign a higher chance of pay-up in your case. And if either of us failed to pay up, we'd take a pretty heavy status/reputation drop on this forum.