Is Jeb Bush already toast?

[hortysir]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

Too high
45%, maybe

I don't think so at all. The GOP establishment wants Jeb, and the GOP establishment always gets what it wants. It's how we got Romney, McCain and Dole.

I think we have a much stronger field this time around where we won't have to settle.
We can take our time.
I think Florida GOP recognizes that. That's why they haven't pushed our primary back earlier like they did last go around

 

[JoshuaZ]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

Too high
45%, maybe

I don't think so at all. The GOP establishment wants Jeb, and the GOP establishment always gets what it wants. It's how we got Romney, McCain and Dole.

I think we have a much stronger field this time around where we won't have to settle.
We can take our time.
I think Florida GOP recognizes that. That's why they haven't pushed our primary back earlier like they did last go around

On the other hand, making Florida and all or nothing primary does strongly help Bush and Rubio.

 

[Mertex]

How high a probability do you estimate for Jeb winning the nomination?

I'd say about 90%.

You really think that many will settle for him? Now that some of the comments he made in his book where he thinks shaming unwed mothers was the way to keep women from getting knocked up before they got married!!! I'm not sure even the young Republicans would think that is reasonable......


One of the reasons more young women are giving birth out of wedlock and more young men are walking away from their paternal obligations is that there is no longer a stigma attached to this behavior, no reason to feel shame. Many of these young women and young men look around and see their friends engaged in the same irresponsible conduct. Their parents and neighbors have become ineffective at attaching some sense of ridicule to this behavior. There was a time when neighbors and communities would frown on out of wedlock births and when public condemnation was enough of a stimulus for one to be careful.

Jeb Bush Wants To Publicly Shame Unwed Mothers - Betches Love This

 

[JoeB131]

You really think that many will settle for him? Now that some of the comments he made in his book where he thinks shaming unwed mothers was the way to keep women from getting knocked up before they got married!!! I'm not sure even the young Republicans would think that is reasonable......

The young Republicans aren't going to be the ones who show up for the primaries, and the ones who do will vote for Rand Paul because he's going to make the weed legal.

yes, I think that Jeb's book from the 1990's make him look stupid, but the Establishment will back him because they might not have any other choice. The only two guys I see as credible alternatives are Rubio and Walker, and they both have a lot of asterisks behind their names.

Christie is effectively done, Cruz has alienated too many people, and Rand Paul is just nuts.

The one thing about the GOP establishment is that they've shown they'd rather lose the general than lose control of the party. The only two times they didn't name the candidate were 1964 and 1980, and neither was a happy result for them.

So while I'm sure we can enjoy the Fratricide of the next year, it will be Jeb in the end.

 

[The Rabbi]

I have been reading a great deal, especially from Conservative websites, and the concensus I am reading is that Jeb has screwed the pooch this last with with his answer to the Iraq War question and the three subsequent days of flip-flopping and waffle'ing.

I mean, come on, it's pretty hard for a Republican to screw up a softball question on FOX, of all stations.

If polling that starts as of this weekend starts to show Jeb's numbers tanking, I guess we will all know.

But I do think that the big winner on the Republican side this last week was Scott Walker. As a good substitute for the man that the GOP establishment has been wanting, all he has to do is to wait, look good and not screw up. Easy, right?



Your thoughts? Did Jeb Bush sink his ship before it even got out of the harbor, or is there still hope for a third Bush presidency within a span of about 25 years?

Too early to tell, of course. Lots can happen between now and Primary Sweep day.
Jeb Bush would still be a better president than anyone the Democrats can muster. And if his name were anything but Bush people would be giving him more consideration.

 

[JoeB131]

Too early to tell, of course. Lots can happen between now and Primary Sweep day.
Jeb Bush would still be a better president than anyone the Democrats can muster. And if his name were anything but Bush people would be giving him more consideration.

If his name wasn't Bush, he wouldn't have a career.

But the point is, his name is Bush, which means he'd bring in the same bunch of jackasses that gave us three wars and three recessions over two presidencies, and that should be enough to disqualify him.

 

[The Rabbi]

Too early to tell, of course. Lots can happen between now and Primary Sweep day.
Jeb Bush would still be a better president than anyone the Democrats can muster. And if his name were anything but Bush people would be giving him more consideration.

If his name wasn't Bush, he wouldn't have a career.

But the point is, his name is Bush, which means he'd bring in the same bunch of jackasses that gave us three wars and three recessions over two presidencies, and that should be enough to disqualify him.

So dont vote for him. Problem solved.

 

[JoeB131]

So dont vote for him. Problem solved.

I didn't plan to. But because there are so many bubba rednecks like you who might, I do worry.