Liberal darling Nate Silver has Trump up 55%-45%.

[Billy000]

I would just laugh at him for being stupid. Not only is the ratio wrong, but the trend this year is no different than previous elections.


Silver knows that there are too many unknowns at this stage to make a solid prediction, he is just saying which way it's leaning. That's based mostly on party registration trends, not on early voter demographics.

No one knows how independents are voting, and no one knows what election day turnout is going to look like.

Oh really? And what exactly does the early vote in PA say as far as gender and party registration?

In states like PA, the NPA split is typically 70-30 democrat.

 

[para bellum]

Oh really? And what exactly does the early vote in PA say as far as gender and party registration?

Party affiliation: repubs are +10% and dems are -10% as a share of the early votes, compared to 2020.
2020, (3 days before the election): D 66.4% R 22.8%
2024 (today): D 56.8% R32.9%

Gender: about the same.
2020: Female share 56.1% Male share 42.5%
2024: Female 55.6% Male 43.2%

In states like PA, the NPA split is typically 70-30 democrat.

You have data for that?

 

[Nostra]

Party affiliation: repubs are +10% and dems are -10% as a share of the early votes, compared to 2020.
2020, (3 days before the election): D 66.4% R 22.8%
2024 (today): D 56.8% R32.9%

Gender: about the same.
2020: Female share 56.1% Male share 42.5%
2024: Female 55.6% Male 43.2%

You have data for that?

Yeah, but Billy has the feelz.

 

[para bellum]

Yeah, but Billy has the feelz.

I think he's been feeling up Dr. Phosphorus...

 

[para bellum]

I did a little numbers crunching yesterday on the two most populous counties in PA.- Philadelphia County and Montgomery County.

I looked at the final early vote count totals of both counties, and the return rates of each. I made the comparison of the early votes this year, and based on the 2020 return rates and total ballots requested in 2024, I projected the final early vote count if the return rates are the same.

From that, I can make a guess on what it will take for dems to match their 2020 results in those counties, when Biden won the State by ~80K votes.

2020, both counties combined: 614,236
2024 projected both counties combined: 370,606

2024 projected decrease: 243,630

Those are heavily democrat counties, so I think it's pretty safe to say the dems will need a strong election day turnout if they want to match their 2020 performance...

 

[Billy000]

Party affiliation: repubs are +10% and dems are -10% as a share of the early votes, compared to 2020.
2020, (3 days before the election): D 66.4% R 22.8%
2024 (today): D 56.8% R32.9%

Gender: about the same.
2020: Female share 56.1% Male share 42.5%
2024: Female 55.6% Male 43.2%

You have data for that?

Um no it’s definitely 2-1

What early voting data shows about new voters, a group that could swing the 2024 election

Most early voters are regular voters, but the new voters turning out early include large numbers of Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[otto105]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

We Liberals sold Nate when Peter theil bought him.

 

[otto105]

I did a little numbers crunching yesterday on the two most populous counties in PA.- Philadelphia County and Montgomery County.

I looked at the final early vote count totals of both counties, and the return rates of each. I made the comparison of the early votes this year, and based on the 2020 return rates and total ballots requested in 2024, I projected the final early vote count if the return rates are the same.

From that, I can make a guess on what it will take for dems to match their 2020 results in those counties, when Biden won the State by ~80K votes.

2020, both counties combined: 614,236
2024 projected both counties combined: 370,606

2024 projected decrease: 243,630

Those are heavily democrat counties, so I think it's pretty safe to say the dems will need a strong election day turnout if they want to match their 2020 performance...

Yeah, not a pandemic going on now fuckup.

 

[Papageorgio]

I imagine this must be very confusing for you in the sense you think liberals are always wrong. Now we have a case where a liberal offers a favorable narrative about Trump. That should mean you should just listen to liberals from now on, but you won’t because you childish idiots will only cherry pick stuff like this.

“See! Even a liberal like Silver is saying Trump will win!”

Now picture a non-partisan political strategist showing favorable data for democrats:

“The early vote in PA shows that female voters outnumber male voters 2-1 with most of them being democrat.”

Republican response: “shut up libtard! You’re just mad Hillary lost!”

They are no different than Democrats in that regard. I always marvel at how partisans are so blind as to not see they act the same.

 

[para bellum]

Um no it’s definitely 2-1

What early voting data shows about new voters, a group that could swing the 2024 election

Most early voters are regular voters, but the new voters turning out early include large numbers of Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona.

www.nbcnews.com

That is only NEW voters, not the total early numbers. That's their own projections- not something the States are reporting.

You're talking about 50K out of 875K women early voters...

The totals are what I posted, those come from the daily reports from the States.

 

[para bellum]

Yeah, not a pandemic going on now fuckup.

It's just numbers otto. Don't freak out.

Since there is no pandemic, dems will have no reason not to show up at the polls. We will see on Tuesday if that happens.

 

[Billy000]

That is only NEW voters, not the total early numbers. That's their own projections- not something the States are reporting.

You're talking about 100K voters out of 1.5 Million...

The totals are what I posted, those come from the daily reports from the States.

You’re right. I was mistaken. Of course you should know, those new voters are everything. It’s pretty ridiculous to minimize that 100k number. It means everything in a state that will come down to a slim margin. Since women vote more on average than men, that gender gap you mentioned also matters

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

Well...I promise you that Silver doesn't have Trump up 55% - 45% anymore.

I predict Harris is going to win by at least 5% - 6%.

 

[DonGlock26]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

No wonder the Biden bots are just name calling.

 

[Lisa558]

It's just numbers otto. Don't freak out.

Since there is no pandemic, dems will have no reason not to show up at the polls. We will see on Tuesday if that happens.

Plus, don’t assume that even if the Dems show up in the same numbers as 2020 that they will vote the same. Even a 4% switch of PA Jewish Democrats (according to Frank Luntz) from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024* can make the difference in a tight election.

*PA Jewish Democrats in particular have a reason to switch away from the Dems. Not only are they upset that Biden-Harris essentially funded the HAMAS massacre against Jews and then were wish-washy with their support for Israel, Harris skipped over Shapiro because Harris was warned not to put a Jew on the ticket.

 

[para bellum]

You’re right. I was mistaken. Of course you should know, those new voters are everything. It’s pretty ridiculous to minimize that 100k number. It means everything in a state that will come down to a slim margin.

I corrected that, I was looking at all voters not just women. It's 50K women out of 875K women total early votes.

The dem margin from those 50K women is 16K, so it may be a factor or may not- it depends on the voting day turnout and which way the indies fall...

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Party affiliation: repubs are +10% and dems are -10% as a share of the early votes, compared to 2020.
2020, (3 days before the election): D 66.4% R 22.8%
2024 (today): D 56.8% R32.9%

Gender: about the same.
2020: Female share 56.1% Male share 42.5%
2024: Female 55.6% Male 43.2%

You have data for that?

What happened in 2020 during the pandemic means exactly jack and shit compared to 2024.

As I posted earlier today, seniors are not voting for Trump in PA. Seniors are the largest voting block in PA and he is going to lose that state by a large margin.

 

[justoffal]

Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by nearly 5 percent. Trump is AHEAD in the final popular vote poll by 0.2 percent. That is a swing of several million votes to Trump, I don't see how this election is going to be close.

Considering all the evidence of cheating that's already taking place Don't count anything out.
It's kind of like the drugs at the border. The border patrol assumes that all the drugs they seize represent less than 10% of what's actually getting through.
I'm willing to bet it's the same way with the cheating ballots.

 

[para bellum]

Plus, don’t assume that even if the Dems show up in the same numbers as 2020 that they will vote the same. Even a 4% switch of PA Jewish Democrats (according to Frank Luntz) from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024* can make the difference in a tight election.

Oh I am not really making assumptions, just comparing turnout rates and what the final early returns would theoretically look like.

 

[Billy000]

I corrected that, I was looking at all voters not just women. It's 50K women out of 875K women total early votes.

The dem margin from those 50K women is 16K, so it may be a factor or may not- it depends on the voting day turnout and which way the indies fall...

Democrats alone make up over 50% of those new voters including men and women. Add that to the independent voters leaning democrat, it’s a bad number for republicans. Even among republicans in general nationwide, 1 out of 10 of them plan to vote for Harris.