Nate Silver Highlights Five 'Huge Mistakes' from Trump Campaign Post Debate

[Synthaholic]

Nate is entitled to his opinions.

He’s largely wrong.

He’s frequently wrong. His model is old.

 

[Synthaholic]

I agree the mods were horrible and very obviously one-sided

Why, because they asked him for details? Because they called out his preposterous lies?

 

[Synthaholic]

I don't think Trump under-performed. He did the best he could considering the unfair conditions.

The end.

Whiny crybabies.

 

[mudwhistle]

Whiny crybabies.

 

[mudwhistle]

Whiny crybabies.

 

[mudwhistle]

 

[mudwhistle]

 

[mudwhistle]

 

[mudwhistle]

 

[mudwhistle]

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Why, because they asked him for details? Because they called out his preposterous lies?

Because they didn't call out Kumalla's preposterous lies.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

This is what this idiot sounds like when she's allowed to wing it:

Sad to see all those white men there, wanting what Kumalla Harris wants. I am embarrassed for them.

 

[Synthaholic]

Because they didn't call out Kumalla's preposterous lies.

She had no preposterous lies.

 

[BackAgain]

He’s frequently wrong. His model is old.

No no. I was talking about his mere opinions. Not his polling.

No pollsters are generally accurate.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

He’s frequently wrong. His model is old.

really?

It's your opinions that are most usually wrong and speaking of old -- your views (and the views of many here @ usmb), are stuck in old Cold War ear. It's as if you haven't crossed the Bridge Bill Clinton Built into the 21st Century.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

For centuries, scholars have debated the question: “What is public opinion?” Or, put differently, “What is the will of the people?” And for nearly as long, they have debated how best to measure it. The great political scientist V.O. Key Jr. defined public opinion as “those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.” And while there have been many ways of assessing and measuring these “opinions held by private persons” across the ages, by far the most common approach today is the opinion poll.

The typical opinion poll consists of a set of “interviews” with people selected to be representative of a population of interest, such as all U.S. adults. These aren’t like the anxiety-inducing interviews you might have for a job. In survey interviews, a pollster will ask everyone the same set of questions in the same way, then tally up the answers and report the results.

If the poll is designed properly, the responses collectively can describe the thinking and experiences of the much larger group of people the sample is chosen from. Our goal in this course is to demystify how this actually happens.

Public Opinion Polling Basics

How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey methodologist answers these questions and more in six short, easy to read lessons.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

No pollsters are generally accurate.

"generally" and "accurate"

What are you attempting to say about polls and polling?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Hilarious how Republicans now respect the wisdom of Nate Silver.

Of course a person so easily accepting to following, wishing to be led, highly susceptible to cults-of-personalty like you are, would desire people see "respect" as "agreement" or "likeability."

You remind me of most bullies I know who sought to instill doubts and fear in others, and believing that earned "respect."

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I cannot disagree with any of these.

1. Vance
2. Meandering convention speech, blowing moment of goodwill
3. Not prepared for Harris swap
4. Clearly not prepped well for tonight's debate and/or incapable of sustained A-game
5. Accepting an early debate with President Joe Biden.

1. 'Vance' was a dumb pick, in that the pick doesn't grow his base. He should have gone with someone like 'Ramaswamy', 'Scott', 'Rubio', even 'Haley'. Will his pick cost him the election? In a very close election, it could easily be a deciding factor.

2. When Trump took the stage at his convention, Republicans were riding a high. They were seeing Biden going down in flames. They had just witnessed Trump rising with his fist in the air, from the rally stage ashes after a very close assassination attempt. They partied all week, and the moment of the crescendo of the convention drew near as their hero Trump took the stage. All's he had to do was make the one-foot putt, anddddddddddddd..........................................................................instead of a climatic positive beacon of light from the magic city on the hill words of wisdom...........(insert broken record sound here)..............................Trump whiffs it, with a negative meandering dark moment rambling speech.

3. He should have been ready for someone taking Biden's place, whether it was Harris, or anyone else, he and his team should have been ready, seeing that Biden was OBVIOUSLY not going to be continuing his campaign.

4. Really don't need to comment on this one, his performance spoke for itself. In short, other than his closing remarks, he sucked.

5. If these were put in order of importance, #5 would be #1. If Trump loses, this is the single biggest thing that cost him the election. Trump and his team should have IMMEDIATELY thrown a red flag in the air the moment 'June' was suggested as the date for the first debate. Historically they are late September or October, they should have known 'something was up' when a call for June was made. They should have realized what the Dims were up to. The June debate proved to be the DNC's 'safety valve'. It exposed Biden, TO WHAT MOST OF US ON THE RIGHT had been saying for months, the man was losing his cognitive abilities, and no matter how the Dims (many on this board) tried to spin it, WE WERE RIGHT!! The fact that a DNC coup was conducted is proof of it!!
'June' bailed out the Dims. Biden was exposed, and they had sufficient time to get a whole new campaign going, which obviously they have.
Had the debate been this month or next, it's likely Dims would not have had sufficient time to get a campaign up to where they have it now.
Trump and his team should have seen what was happening, and should have demanded the debates start in September or October. Had they figured this out, they likely would be measuring the Oval Office drapes as we speak! Total fuck-up on their part!

Nate Silver Highlights five "huge mistakes" from Trump campaign post debate

Lack of debate prep follows a string of other errors by the former president, and No5 is the most consequential, says top pollster.

www.newsweek.com

He is polite to call them mistakes.

These are features and the expected behaviors of an ignorant, classless, incurious, amoral, unethical narcissist .

Calling them mistakes assumes a baseline of normal behavior exists for Trump.

It's not a "mistake", when a serial bank robber robs a bank. It's what a bank robber does.

 

[HikerGuy83]

He's wrong on all counts. It's amazing how these non-biased election experts really turn out to be biased assholes after all.

1. He's voting for Harris.
2. He is showing Trump with a 60% chance of winning.

I trust his judgement.

I am still liking Vance. He shows he knows and can talk rationally.

But Silver nailed it on Trumps lack of debate prep. I am still angry with Trump.