Liberal SUNY professor who predicted last 5 POTUS elections say Trump has 87% chance of winning

[owebo]

As someone else said,

this model is great for predicting history.

Yep....in advance.....

Wrong. He did not predict the 1912 election before it happened.

He never said he did..

Would you like to play again?

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

SUNY Prof With Reliable Election Model Predicts 87% Chance of Trump Win

Happy now?

The math, it's difficult, we know.....

He did say he calibrated the model using past elections....

Chew on that math cud for a bit....

 

[NYcarbineer]

As someone else said,

this model is great for predicting history.

Yep....in advance.....

Wrong. He did not predict the 1912 election before it happened.

He never said he did..

Would you like to play again?

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

SUNY Prof With Reliable Election Model Predicts 87% Chance of Trump Win

Happy now?

The math, it's difficult, we know.....

He did say he calibrated the model using past elections....

Chew on that math cud for a bit....

So you were wrong to claim he predicted those elections in advance.

 

[owebo]

Yep....in advance.....

Wrong. He did not predict the 1912 election before it happened.

He never said he did..

Would you like to play again?

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

SUNY Prof With Reliable Election Model Predicts 87% Chance of Trump Win

Happy now?

The math, it's difficult, we know.....

He did say he calibrated the model using past elections....

Chew on that math cud for a bit....

So you were wrong to claim he predicted those elections in advance.

The last 5? No....

 

[Toro]

Trump has zero chance outside of an ELE for Clinton.

Math escapes you fucktard liberals...

"Math"

 

[owebo]

Trump has zero chance outside of an ELE for Clinton.

Math escapes you fucktard liberals...

"Math"



View attachment 94756

Yes, math....not your propaganda.....

Relax, hitlery has a 13% chance of winning.....

 

[L.K.Eder]

Cool model, with slight calibrations, lol.

So he predicts, and if reality is wrong, he calibrates the model. Awesome.

Already offered and discarded in February. At least twice.

 

[Toro]

unskewedpolls.com

Successfully unskewing polls for conservatives since 2012.

 

[Toro]

Basically, the model predicts the winner will be the one

1.) With the biggest margin of victory in the primary, and
2.) If the party in power has been out of power for two terms.

It says nothing about polling.

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...fc5a2708b8b/1470504123571/Vote+2016+PM+PS.pdf

Oh, and the model has been wrong in the past when applied retroactively.

Barron's had a cover piece in 2012 that regressed economic factors to Presidential elections, which had successfully predicted every Presidential election since 1964. Based on their model, they predicted Romney would win the election.

 

[NYcarbineer]

This is how this works:

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry.


Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | CU Boulder Today | University of Colorado Boulder

 

[Pop23]

Trump has zero chance outside of an ELE for Clinton.

Math escapes you fucktard liberals...

"Math"



View attachment 94756

Last three polls has it tied or Trump up.

Just two days ago the IBD poll, the gold standard had trump up in a four way and Clinton up in two way. Now trump leads in four way and tied in two way. Appears the undecided are breaking for Trump.

Hillary appears to be losing the Big Mo the closer we get.

Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

 

[L.K.Eder]

Cool model, with slight calibrations, lol.

So he predicts, and if reality is wrong, he calibrates the model. Awesome.

Already offered and discarded in February. At least twice.

We will never discard your fear...,

Read the threads posted about this model, in february, noob.

 

[owebo]

This is how this works:

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry.


Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | CU Boulder Today | University of Colorado Boulder

We Re discussing something different however...but you can't understand that....because math escapes you....

 

[Windship]

Is china a Republic?

 

[Toro]

Cool model, with slight calibrations, lol.

So he predicts, and if reality is wrong, he calibrates the model. Awesome.

Already offered and discarded in February. At least twice.

We will never discard your fear...,

Read the threads posted about this model, in february, noob.

No thanks tool....I prefer current events....

hahahahaha

unintentional irony is pretty funny

 

[owebo]

Is china a Republic?

China is not the USA...you do know this...right?

 

[Windship]

Do you?

 

[NYcarbineer]

This is how this works:

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry.


Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | CU Boulder Today | University of Colorado Boulder

We Re discussing something different however...but you can't understand that....because math escapes you....

lol, dumbest answer of the day.

We're not discussing predictive models? Models that are supposedly almost foolproof?

 

[owebo]

We will never discard your fear...,

Read the threads posted about this model, in february, noob.

No thanks tool....I prefer current events....

hahahahaha

unintentional irony is pretty funny

You're uneducated liberal ignorance being funnier....

Math is hard for you conservatards.

Reading calendars is even harder.

I love math.....I use it to confuse you fucktard liberals all the time....

 

[NYcarbineer]

You want a predictive model that almost always works in the modern era?

The candidate with the most charisma wins.

 

[owebo]

This is how this works:

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry.


Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | CU Boulder Today | University of Colorado Boulder

We Re discussing something different however...but you can't understand that....because math escapes you....

lol, dumbest answer of the day.

We're not discussing predictive models? Models that are supposedly almost foolproof?

Not that model....start your own fucking thread.....