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By the time today's preschoolers are babysitting their grandkids, global sea levels are likely to be pushing 2 feet higher than they are now and on the way to topping 8 feet above current levels by the year 2200, according to a new study.
The finding stems from geologic evidence that allowed scientists to tease apart a natural background pattern of how fast and how high sea levels rose as ice ages came and went over the past 2 million years.
Today's pace of sea level rise is about twice as fast compared to historical standards, the team concluded. Going forward, seas will be pushed higher as rising temperatures force the great ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to disintegrate, glaciers around the world to retreat toward mountaintops, and warming ocean waters to expand, the study notes.
"We have awoken a sleeping giant," Eelco Rohling, a climate scientist at the Australian National University in Canberra, told NBC News in an email. "He is now here to stay." To stand a chance at halting the rise and preserving today's coastal cities, he added, "We must virtually immediately take measures of carbon reduction."
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.
During the 20th century, sea levels along the highly populated U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastline between New York and Virginia rose faster than in any other century during the past 4,300 years, according to a new study.
And as those sea levels continue to increase as a result of global warming and local land elevation changes, the risks of coastal flooding will dramatically escalate.
The study, by geoscientists at Rutgers and Tufts Universities and published in the new journal “Earth’s Future,” took a comprehensive look at the history of sea level in the Mid-Atlantic, combining sediment records of prehistoric sea level with modern data, which includes readings from tide gauges and satellite instruments.
The result is one of the most in-depth examinations of past, present, and future sea level rise of any region in the U.S.
The study warns that regional planners will need to factor local rates of sea level rise when making decisions on building any long-lasting infrastructure, from water treatment facilities to Manhattan skyscrapers and Atlantic City casinos.
For example, the study estimated that the New Jersey shore will likely see a sea level rise of about 1.5 feet by 2050, and about 3.5 feet by 2100, at least a foot higher than the average global sea level rise over the rest of the century.
Using a middle-range scenario for future sea level rise, the study found that by 2050, flooding caused by a 10-year storm, which has a 10 percent probability of occurring each year, would exceed all historic storms in Atlantic City.
According to the study, relative sea levels in the Mid-Atlantic region rose at about 0.10 inches per year during the 19th century, and that rate accelerated to 0.15 inches per year during the 20th century. That may not sound like much, but it is already enough to make a major difference when storms strike.
The impact from Hurricane Sandy clearly illustrates that. The study found that a 7.87-inch global sea level rise during the 20th century, which was largely driven by manmade global warming, caused Hurricane Sandy to flood an additional 27 square miles compared to what it would have if the storm had struck in 1880 when sea levels were lower.
We evaluate paleo-, historical, and future sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. The rate of relative sea-level rise in New Jersey decreased from 3.5 ± 1.0 mm/yr at 7.5–6.5 ka, to 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr at 5.5–4.5 ka to a minimum of 0.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr at 3.3–2.3 ka. Relative sea level rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr from 2.2 to 1.2 ka (750 Common Era [CE]) and 1.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr from 800 to 1800 CE. Geological and tide-gauge data show that sea-level rise was more rapid throughout the region since the Industrial Revolution (19th century = 2.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr; 20th century = 3.8 ± 0.2 mm/yr). There is a 95% probability that the 20th century rate of sea-level rise was faster than it was in any century in the last 4.3 kyr. These records reflect global rise (∼1.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr since 1880 CE) and subsidence from glacio-isostatic adjustment (∼1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr) at bedrock locations (e.g., New York City). At coastal plain locations, the rate of rise is 0.3–1.3 mm/yr higher due to groundwater withdrawal and compaction. We construct 21st century relative sea-level rise scenarios including global, regional, and local processes. We project a 22 cm rise at bedrock locations by 2030 (central scenario; low- and high-end scenarios range of 16–38 cm), 40 cm by 2050 (range 28–65 cm), and 96 cm by 2100 (range 66–168 cm), with coastal plain locations having higher rises (3, 5–6, and 10–12 cm higher, respectively). By 2050 CE in the central scenario, a storm with a 10 year recurrence interval will exceed all historic storms at Atlantic City.
Summary
An analysis of geological and historical sea-level records shows a significant rate of increase in sea-level rise since the nineteenth century. In New Jersey, it is extremely likely that sea-level rise in the twentieth century was faster than during any other century in the last 4.3 thousand years. Accounting for regional and local factors, the authors project sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic U.S. most likely about 38–42′′ (96–106 cm) over the twentieth century, but possibly as high as 66–71′′ (168–180 cm).
They have plenty of time.The displacement of tens of millions of Americans is why that is just off base.
They have plenty of time.The displacement of tens of millions of Americans is why that is just off base.
They don't have to build another city, they just have to move to another one.They have plenty of time.The displacement of tens of millions of Americans is why that is just off base.
Do they? How long did it take to build the cities and other coastal structures they currently inhabit? How much did it COST? And WHERE will you move them to? It's not as if the US interior is a bit empty wilderness. And we're not just talking about the US. This is a good portion of the world you've got to move.
They don't have to build another city, they just have to move to another one.
You do realize the reason most sane people ignore your tirades is because for the last 30 years you have been saying the sea was rising. Aren't we already supposed to be under water?
Keep crying wolf, it worked so well for the shepherd boy. And when you are FINALY right no one will believe you cause you were wrong for so many years.
YAWN!
When insanely rich liberals start selling their gazillion dollar estates in Newport, the Hamptons, South Beach, and Malibu, I might be able to scrape up a damn to give.
More than half the planets human population lives in cities and most of those cities are on the coasts not much above current sea level.
I means seriously...does this really require explanation?
If you believe the sea level is rising, you understand the problem.
If you don't then obviously there is nothing to worry about.
Truth will out.
It ain't me.YAWN!
When insanely rich liberals start selling their gazillion dollar estates in Newport, the Hamptons, South Beach, and Malibu, I might be able to scrape up a damn to give.
When a hundred million south east Asians have no homes and no water, insufficient food, breed disease and mob the high ground, will you give a damn?
You do realize the reason most sane people ignore your tirades is because for the last 30 years you have been saying the sea was rising. Aren't we already supposed to be under water?
Keep crying wolf, it worked so well for the shepherd boy. And when you are FINALY right no one will believe you cause you were wrong for so many years.
No. No one predicted that we would be underwater by now. However, I wouldn't call this "crying wolf"
Melting ice a 'sleeping giant' that will push sea levels higher, scientist says
By the time today's preschoolers are babysitting their grandkids, global sea levels are likely to be pushing 2 feet higher than they are now and on the way to topping 8 feet above current levels by the year 2200, according to a new study.
The finding stems from geologic evidence that allowed scientists to tease apart a natural background pattern of how fast and how high sea levels rose as ice ages came and went over the past 2 million years.
Today's pace of sea level rise is about twice as fast compared to historical standards, the team concluded. Going forward, seas will be pushed higher as rising temperatures force the great ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to disintegrate, glaciers around the world to retreat toward mountaintops, and warming ocean waters to expand, the study notes.
"We have awoken a sleeping giant," Eelco Rohling, a climate scientist at the Australian National University in Canberra, told NBC News in an email. "He is now here to stay." To stand a chance at halting the rise and preserving today's coastal cities, he added, "We must virtually immediately take measures of carbon reduction."
Melting ice a 'sleeping giant' that will push sea levels higher, scientist says - NBC News.com
Where's this idiot been? Mars?
You do realize the reason most sane people ignore your tirades is because for the last 30 years you have been saying the sea was rising. Aren't we already supposed to be under water?
Keep crying wolf, it worked so well for the shepherd boy. And when you are FINALY right no one will believe you cause you were wrong for so many years.
No. No one predicted that we would be underwater by now. However, I wouldn't call this "crying wolf"
Deaf, dumb and blind is no way to go through life, kid.
