CDZ “National Popular Vote” ... in 2024 and beyond ?

[Tom Paine 1949]

Nothing seems likely to prevent the upcoming Presidential Election from being another disaster for U.S. political institutions and popular confidence in elections. My (worthless) gut feeling is that Trump will win another term. Whether it will be overwhelming, a squeaker in which he again loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, or whether Biden gets elected, popular unhappiness with the Electoral College system (certainly not the only problem with elections or our political system!) will likely remain highly disruptive going forward.

There was a long and interesting article Sept. 8 in the “liberal” NY. Times which discussed the proposal for a “National Popular Vote” for President. Unfortunately, you may find it’s behind an Internet pay wall. It was rather provocatively titled “The Electoral College Will Destroy America...” A few excerpts below:

“If Mr. Biden wins by five percentage points or more — if he beats Donald Trump by more than seven million votes — he’s a virtual shoo-in. If he wins 4.5 million more votes than the president? He’s still got a three-in-four chance to be president.

Anything less, however, and Mr. Biden’s odds drop like a rock. A mere three million-vote Biden victory? A second Trump term suddenly becomes more likely than not. If Mr. Biden’s margin drops to 1.5 million — about the populations of Rhode Island and Wyoming combined — forget about it. The chance of a Biden presidency in that scenario is less than one in 10....

“Given that abolishing the Electoral College is not on the table at the moment, for a number of reasons, the best solution would be to do what Madison tried to do more than two centuries ago: get rid of statewide winner-take-all laws. That can be achieved through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ...

If you think this is a plot by bitter Democrats who just want to win, consider this: Texas is going to turn blue. Maybe not this year, maybe not even in 2024. But it’s headed in that direction, and when it gets there, Republicans will be in for an unpleasant surprise. In 2016, Donald Trump won about 4.5 million votes in Texas. The moment the Democratic nominee wins more, all those Republican voters suddenly disappear, along with any realistic shot at winning the White House....

“Every time a new national poll ... is released, it’s followed by a chorus of responses along the lines of, Who cares? The national popular vote is meaningless. Well, I care. So do tens of millions of other Americans.

“And so does Donald Trump. ‘The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy,’ he tweeted on election night 2012. Why? Because he believed Mitt Romney would win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. Not only has he never taken that tweet down, but he continues to claim that he won the popular vote in 2016. Why does he care so much about making that case unless he believed in his heart, like the rest of us do, that the person who gets the most votes should win?“

Opinion | The Electoral College Will Destroy America

 

[JakeStarkey]

NPV is inevitable. That will give the Democratic Party a permanent majority party dominance going forward, which will result in blue presidencies, congresses, and an increased number of SCOTUS seats to ensure a Democratic majority.

 

[White 6]

Nothing seems likely to prevent the upcoming Presidential Election from being another disaster for U.S. political institutions and popular confidence in elections. My (worthless) gut feeling is that Trump will win another term. Whether it will be overwhelming, a squeaker in which he again loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, or whether Biden gets elected, popular unhappiness with the Electoral College system (certainly not the only problem with elections or our political system!) will likely remain highly disruptive going forward.

There was a long and interesting article Sept. 8 in the “liberal” NY. Times which discussed the proposal for a “National Popular Vote” for President. Unfortunately, you may find it’s behind an Internet pay wall. It was rather provocatively titled “The Electoral College Will Destroy America...” A few excerpts below:

“If Mr. Biden wins by five percentage points or more — if he beats Donald Trump by more than seven million votes — he’s a virtual shoo-in. If he wins 4.5 million more votes than the president? He’s still got a three-in-four chance to be president.

Anything less, however, and Mr. Biden’s odds drop like a rock. A mere three million-vote Biden victory? A second Trump term suddenly becomes more likely than not. If Mr. Biden’s margin drops to 1.5 million — about the populations of Rhode Island and Wyoming combined — forget about it. The chance of a Biden presidency in that scenario is less than one in 10....

“Given that abolishing the Electoral College is not on the table at the moment, for a number of reasons, the best solution would be to do what Madison tried to do more than two centuries ago: get rid of statewide winner-take-all laws. That can be achieved through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ...

If you think this is a plot by bitter Democrats who just want to win, consider this: Texas is going to turn blue. Maybe not this year, maybe not even in 2024. But it’s headed in that direction, and when it gets there, Republicans will be in for an unpleasant surprise. In 2016, Donald Trump won about 4.5 million votes in Texas. The moment the Democratic nominee wins more, all those Republican voters suddenly disappear, along with any realistic shot at winning the White House....

“Every time a new national poll ... is released, it’s followed by a chorus of responses along the lines of, Who cares? The national popular vote is meaningless. Well, I care. So do tens of millions of other Americans.

“And so does Donald Trump. ‘The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy,’ he tweeted on election night 2012. Why? Because he believed Mitt Romney would win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. Not only has he never taken that tweet down, but he continues to claim that he won the popular vote in 2016. Why does he care so much about making that case unless he believed in his heart, like the rest of us do, that the person who gets the most votes should win?

Opinion | The Electoral College Will Destroy America

I am more positive, Biden will win. Have heard idea of abolishing electoral college for years, every 4 years to be exact. The interior of the country does not want to be ignored for the desires of coasts. Getting rid of winner take all would have same effect, and would be hard to pass in republican controlled states, especially if trump loses, as he would certainly lose by more if it passed. I'll go with the constitution and what the founding fathers actually passed. I do favor death by firing squad (no blindfold) for any vote cheating that effected vote by more than 100 votes in any state, for anybody convicted, automatically including heads of next three levels above person caught, as they should have watched their people and been more responsible, instead of encouraging or looking the other way with plausible deniability. Doubt if your idea or mine will gain much traction.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, should it win sufficient state backing and pass inevitable legal challenges, could NOT effect the present election. At the very earliest It would be in effect in 2024 or more likely 2028, when Trump will presumably be retired.

By 2028 demographic changes may have upturned the present Red/Blue preference in Texas and elsewhere, and Republicans may find once again, as they did in the past, that “winner-take-all” State allocation of electoral votes works against their own partisan interests. Hence this question should be viewed in a bipartisan manner on its own merits, as a “good government” reform proposal likely to increase democratic involvement in voting everywhere, and hopefully cohere greater national unity.

Of course I am here assumIng our country, whoever is elected in 2020, will hold together and remain a representative democracy with its Constitution and basic Republican Institutions intact for the foreseeable future.

 

[Thunk]

Do it.

You'll need to change the constitution which means a constitutional convention and ratification by two-thirds of the states.

(edited for CDZ)

 

[JakeStarkey]

NPV does not require a Constitutional convention. It is a consortium of state agreements, that is all that is needed.

 

[JakeStarkey]

NPV does not require a Constitutional convention. It is a consortium of state agreements, that is all that is needed.

If Biden wins he will destroy industries. The mandatory mask wearing will bury the CRUISE industry as just one example. There are many jobs related and associated with it. You cretins are always around. throughout history causing misery for people. You are packaged in different ways but the end is always the same. And there are the same on the other side. Its just that you are the end game.

Be polite in CDZ: it's not hard to do.

When the NPV becomes reality, watch the GoP move to the center in a flash.

 

[Devils_Advocate]

As much as the left wishes for this it will never get enough States to support it.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Between this election and 2024, the NPV is inevitably going to pass.

 

[Devils_Advocate]

Between this election and 2024, the NPV is inevitably going to pass.

no, it will never happen...

 

[JakeStarkey]

It's inevitable. Not a thing can be done to prevent it.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Article IV, Section IV is quite clear. "The United States shall guarantee to every state in this Union a Republican Form of Government"

Here's a country simple description from a great book on the topic. The American Ideal of 1776.


An Important Distinction: Democracy versus Republic

It is important to keep in mind the difference between ''a Democracy'' and ''a Republic'', as dissimilar forms of government. Understanding the difference is essential to comprehension of the fundamentals involved. It should be noted, in passing, that use of the word Democracy as meaning merely the popular type of government--that is, featuring genuinely free elections by the people periodically--is not helpful in discussing, as here, the difference between alternative and dissimilar forms of a popular government: a Democracy versus a Republic. This double meaning of Democracy--a popular-type government in general, as well as a specific form of popular government--needs to be made clear in any discussion, or writing, regarding this subject, for the sake of sound understanding.

These two forms of government: Democracy and Republic, are not only dissimilar but antithetical, reflecting the sharp contrast between (a) The Majority Unlimited, in a Democracy, lacking any legal safeguard of the rights of The Individual and The Minority, and (b) The Majority Limited, in a Republic under a written Constitution safeguarding the rights of The Individual and The Minority; as we shall now see.


A Democracy

The chief characteristic and distinguishing feature of a Democracy is: Rule by Omnipotent Majority. In a Democracy, The Individual, and any group of Individuals composing any Minority, have no protection against the unlimited power of The Majority. It is a case of Majority-over-Man.

This is true whether it be a Direct Democracy, or a Representative Democracy.


A Republic

A Republic, on the other hand, has a very different purpose and an entirely different form, or system, of government. Its purpose is to control The Majority strictly, as well as all others among the people, primarily to protect The Individual’s God-given, unalienable rights and therefore for the protection of the rights of The Minority, of all minorities, and the liberties of people in general. The definition of a Republic is: a constitutionally limited government of the representative type, created by a written Constitution--adopted by the people and changeable (from its original meaning) by them only by its amendment--with its powers divided between three separate Branches: Executive, Legislative and Judicial.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Article IV, Section 4

The Text
The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature can-not be convened) against domestic Violence.

The Meaning
This provision, known as the guarantee clause, is attributed to James Madison. It has not been widely interpreted, but scholars think it ensures that each state be run as a representative democracy, as opposed to a monarchy (run by a king or queen) or a dictatorship (where one individual or group of individuals controls the government). Courts however have been reluctant to specify what exactly a republican form of government means, leaving that decision exclusively to Congress.

The section also gives Congress the power (and obligation) to protect the states from an invasion by a foreign country, or from significant violent uprisings within each state. It authorizes the legislature of each state (or the executive, if the legislature cannot be assembled in time) to request federal help with riots or other violence.

CDZ - “National Popular Vote” ... in 2024 and beyond ?

Nothing seems likely to prevent the upcoming Presidential Election from being another disaster for U.S. political institutions and popular confidence in elections. My (worthless) gut feeling is that Trump will win another term. Whether it will be overwhelming, a squeaker in which he again loses...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[Correll]

Nothing seems likely to prevent the upcoming Presidential Election from being another disaster for U.S. political institutions and popular confidence in elections. My (worthless) gut feeling is that Trump will win another term. Whether it will be overwhelming, a squeaker in which he again loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, or whether Biden gets elected, popular unhappiness with the Electoral College system (certainly not the only problem with elections or our political system!) will likely remain highly disruptive going forward.

There was a long and interesting article Sept. 8 in the “liberal” NY. Times which discussed the proposal for a “National Popular Vote” for President. Unfortunately, you may find it’s behind an Internet pay wall. It was rather provocatively titled “The Electoral College Will Destroy America...” A few excerpts below:

“If Mr. Biden wins by five percentage points or more — if he beats Donald Trump by more than seven million votes — he’s a virtual shoo-in. If he wins 4.5 million more votes than the president? He’s still got a three-in-four chance to be president.

Anything less, however, and Mr. Biden’s odds drop like a rock. A mere three million-vote Biden victory? A second Trump term suddenly becomes more likely than not. If Mr. Biden’s margin drops to 1.5 million — about the populations of Rhode Island and Wyoming combined — forget about it. The chance of a Biden presidency in that scenario is less than one in 10....

“Given that abolishing the Electoral College is not on the table at the moment, for a number of reasons, the best solution would be to do what Madison tried to do more than two centuries ago: get rid of statewide winner-take-all laws. That can be achieved through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ...

If you think this is a plot by bitter Democrats who just want to win, consider this: Texas is going to turn blue. Maybe not this year, maybe not even in 2024. But it’s headed in that direction, and when it gets there, Republicans will be in for an unpleasant surprise. In 2016, Donald Trump won about 4.5 million votes in Texas. The moment the Democratic nominee wins more, all those Republican voters suddenly disappear, along with any realistic shot at winning the White House....

“Every time a new national poll ... is released, it’s followed by a chorus of responses along the lines of, Who cares? The national popular vote is meaningless. Well, I care. So do tens of millions of other Americans.

“And so does Donald Trump. ‘The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy,’ he tweeted on election night 2012. Why? Because he believed Mitt Romney would win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. Not only has he never taken that tweet down, but he continues to claim that he won the popular vote in 2016. Why does he care so much about making that case unless he believed in his heart, like the rest of us do, that the person who gets the most votes should win?“

Opinion | The Electoral College Will Destroy America

Your reasoning makes no sense. Demographic shift means the electoral college will be irrelevant. One party rule for the foreseeable future.


Barring immediate and drastic change in trends.


Besides, your side is refusing to respect the democratic process already. That is the end of democracy right there.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Reading your op it appears 10s of millions of Americans failed social studies and think the presidency is a popularity contest.

 

[JakeStarkey]

IOW, the NPV is a done deal when the votes of the states reach an electoral majority in the aggregate. I think states equaling 71 more EVs are required.

 

[Wyatt earp]

IOW, the NPV is a done deal when the votes of the states reach an electoral majority in the aggregate. I think states equaling 71 more EVs are required.

It will go to the supreme court when that happens, states cannot make interstate compacts without Congress approval

 

[Natural Citizen]

Just to add to what I'd mentioned previously in the thread, it should be recognized fundamentally that the founders created a constitutionally limited republic precisely to protect fundamental liberties from the whims of the masses and to guard against the excesses of democracy. The Electoral College likewise was created in the Constitution to guard against majority tyranny in federal elections.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The NPV has passed constitutional scrutiny. It will pass during the next four years.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Never gonna happen.