New Fox News Poll- Obama 46, Romney 39

[blackhawk]

Again the polls will shift a lot between now and November you guys are going to drive yourself nuts citing them every day or week.

 

[BluePhantom]

Ehhh, not so much. Both are pretty much still tossups...

Obama's announced support of gay marriage just handed North Carolina to Romney on a silver platter. Wisconsin I have leaning to Obama but it's holding on to that status by its fingernails. One more poll within the MOE in Wisconsin and it's time to move Wisconsin to a toss up....Colorado I still have leaning to Obama

You can believe whatever you want there, guy.

But your boy is so desperate he's sucking up to Liberty University, which teaches his religions is a cult and how to avoid it.

It would be like Obama going to Bob Jones University when they still had the no-race-mixing policy.

Romney's biggest problem- when people get to know him, they don't like him. He's been doing well lately because he's not been in the spotlight. He's "Generic Republican" right now. He's back in the "MIttness Protection Program."

All I have to do is look at the numbers. Two polls this month of North Carolina. PPP and Rasmussen. Rasmussen has it Romney +8 on an LV model and PPP Obama +1 on an RV model. Averaged together it's Romney +4.5% with a Romney trend. Now PPP has been polling with an average of 5 points in Obama's favor recently against the total average of professional polling agencies and their +1 poll is RV which means it has a natural lean of a good 4 points at least toward Obama. Factor in PPP's recent bias against the average and the RV vs. LV factor and guess what you get: Romney +8.

In other words North Carolina is going heavy toward Romney right now.

In Wisconsin we have three polls this month and the two most recent are within the MOE and the Rasmussen poll a week ago was on the border of the MOE. The trend is toward Romney in Wisconsin. Right now it's right on the verge of being a true toss up.

We haven't seen shit from Colorado for about a month but the most recent poll is a tie by Purple Strategies and that was an LV poll. I still have it for Obama right now but we'll see.

I mean this isn't real fucking hard, you know. You can write a spreadsheet to calculate all this shit in a couple hours and the formulas are pretty easily found with a fucking google search

 

[Ava]

Again the polls will shift a lot between now and November you guys are going to drive yourself nuts citing them every day or week.

That's so true...lol

And today's numbers from Rasmussen:

• Thursday, May 17, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney earning 46% of the vote and President Obama attracting 45% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Toro]

Too early.

Still.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Ehhh, not so much. Both are pretty much still tossups...

Obama's announced support of gay marriage just handed North Carolina to Romney on a silver platter. Wisconsin I have leaning to Obama but it's holding on to that status by its fingernails. One more poll within the MOE in Wisconsin and it's time to move Wisconsin to a toss up....Colorado I still have leaning to Obama

You can believe whatever you want there, guy.

But your boy is so desperate he's sucking up to Liberty University, which teaches his religions is a cult and how to avoid it.

It would be like Obama going to Bob Jones University when they still had the no-race-mixing policy.

Romney's biggest problem- when people get to know him, they don't like him. He's been doing well lately because he's not been in the spotlight. He's "Generic Republican" right now. He's back in the "MIttness Protection Program."

You are so desperate is right, JoeB, you so describe yourself.

 

[Chris]

Romney's secret Swiss bank account....

Romney was required to file a financial disclosure form, less detailed than taxes, when he filed for president. In fact, he argued that he should have to release his taxes because the disclosure form showed everything important. But 23 different investment funds shown on his taxes did not appear on his disclosure form -- and 11 of those are in those overseas, secret banking centers. That's a sign of what he's embarrassed to reveal -- and it's also a felony, if the government can prove it was deliberate and not just a sloppy oversight.

The biggest concern is Romney's Swiss bank account, one of the items not on his financial disclosure. Mitt had it from 2003 to 2010, when his adviser shut it down. He closed it in the middle of an amnesty that the IRS had declared for owners of previously unreported Swiss bank accounts -- if they came clean, they would not face criminal prosecution for not reporting it in previous years (which was illegal - plus most weren't paying taxes on that money). Was the sudden shutdown of Romney's secret Swiss bank account part of this amnesty program? We can't know unless and until he releases prior returns, like his dad who released 12 years of prior returns. And Mitt is still fiercely refusing to do so.

 

[Chris]

Romney's Medicare Fraud....

In 1989, Romney led Bain Capital's purchase of Damon Corp., a medical testing company, and took a seat on the Board of Directors to better manage it. During Romney's four years, Bain tripled its investment, and Romney personally made $473,000 -- while Damon plumped its profits with Medicare fraud (running thousands of medical tests doctors didn't want, and billing Medicare for them). The company pled guilty to crimes committed during his tenure and paid a record fine of $119 million. Company President Joseph Isola pleaded no contest to fraud, and a vice president was also convicted.

Romney claims he "uncovered" the fraudulent claims and "took corrective action," but court records show that he did not notify prosecutors or stop the fraudulent billing. He just asked company lawyers what changes they could make to avoid prosecution, after the feds' LABSCAM prosecution targeted a different medical testing firm. The cheating continued, prosecutors say, until the day Bain sold the company to Corning. Furthermore, Damon Corp. was required to list in various SEC filings any significant legal risks it faced. Romney made no mention of the fraud he "uncovered," even though it led to a $119 million fine, the largest in history. Damon Corp. is another Bain acquisition that later went bankrupt, killing over a thousand jobs -- but not before Bain made $7.4 million in profit.

 

[Sarah G]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

A big change from the 46-46 tie that Fox reported at the end of April.

Incidently, the survey was taken from 5-13 to 5-15.

Right after we found out that Romney beat the snot out of the gay kid in High School...

Wow. I only follow Real Clear but a Fox result like that is pretty amazing.

 

[NYcarbineer]

I have been hesitating to say much about this particular Fox poll but I am bored so I will. The big problem here is that most people look at poll results on RCP or wherever, see the spread, and start cheering or crying. In reality it's way more complicated than that. RV polls will give a natural lean toward this party, and you have to factor in demographics, and the laws of probabilities...it's just not as simple as looking at the bottom line of a poll and taking it as gospel because different polls measure different things. LV polls measure one thing, RV polls measure something completely different, A polls measure something completely different than the other two.

So what we're trying to find out when we look at a poll is really "who is going to win the election"...because "who do the majority of American citizens support" and "who will win the election" are two completely different questions because almost half of the people who are eligible to vote don't actually go vote.

Well there are numerous formulas and calculations for all this but the standard breakdown of people who actually show up on election day is generally 32% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 36% Independent. That will fluctuate a bit depending on how energized the base is, and all that crap, but usually speaking that's roughly how it turns out.

So people shouldn't be looking at the final results of any poll and taking them as gospel because as I pointed out earlier, polling is a game of probabilities just like anything else. If you flip a coin four times in a row on average you will get heads twice and tails twice, but every now and then you might get heads four times in a row or tails four times in a row or any mixture in between. The more times you run the exercise of flipping the coin four times in a row the greater your variation of results will be.

This is what I was getting at earlier when talking to nobraininafight about margins of error, standard deviation, and how they shrink when you expand the sample of a given set but expand when you increase the number of sets in an average.

So basically everyone is looking at the wrong thing. Instead of looking at this FoxNews poll and saying "Obama +7" and reacting according to who they support, it's important to look deeper. Fox has provided the crosstabs and the total sample size and with that and the generic 32/32/36 model all it takes is some very basic math to convert it into a generic model of who would win according to this poll if the election were held today. So let's do that.

Now we know that the FoxNews poll in question was 913 registered voters. According to the demographics question at about the middle of the link I provided, the sample was made up of 42% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 20% Independents. Wow...that's a long way from the 32/32/36 that historically shows up on election day. Democrats are oversampled by 10 points, Republicans by 2, and Independents are undersampled by a whopping 16 points.

Thankfully they provided crosstabs just slightly further down; question #2. Democrats supported Obama 88% to 5% for Romney. Republicans were 6% Obama and 84% Romney. Independents were 29% Obama 34% Romney and the rest haven't made up their mind yet.

So let's take that total sample of 913 and weight it according to historical norms on election day:

Republicans: 913 x 32% = 292.16
Democrats: 913 x 32% = 292.16
Independents: 913 x 36% = 328.68

So we have split the sample of 913 (could be any number really) according to a generic average of how many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents will show up on election day. For now we will ignore undecided voters because we can move that overall sample of 913 to any number and the same thing will happen as we are expressing things as a percentage, but lets just go with the 913 they gave us.

Well according to the crosstabs 88% of Democrats would vote for Obama and 5% would vote for Romney and we know there are 292.16 Democrats in our generic LV sample. Pretty easy math:

292.16 x 88% = 257.1 Obama votes among Democrats
292.16 x 5% = 14.61 Romney votes among Democrats

Republicans were 6% Obama and 84% Romney

292.16 x 6% = 17.53 Obama votes among Republicans
292.16 x 84% = 245.41 Romney votes among Republicans

Independents were 29% Obama and 34% Romney (lots of undecided voters there)

328.68 x 29% = 92.03 Obama votes among Independents
328.68 x 34% = 111.75 Romney votes among Independents

So let's add them up

Obama: 257.1+17.53+92.03 = 366.66 votes
Romney: 14.61+245.41+111.75 = 371.77 votes

Obama: 366.66 / 913 = 40.16%
Romney: 371.77 / 913 = 40.72%

Difference: Romney +0.56

Now let's calculate margin of error against a standard confidence interval of 95%. In a single sample the formula is:

(1.96)sqrt[d(r)/(n)]

where
d = Obama percentage
r = Romney percentage
n = sample size

so we get
(1.96)sqrt[(.4016)(.4072)/913]
(1.96)sqrt[.163532/913]
(1.96)sqrt[.000179]
(1.96)(.013383)
.026231
or
2.62%

So we have is a 95% chance that it's Romney +0.56% with a MOE of 2.62%.

The result is less than the MOE and so according to this poll we are 95% certain that we have a statistical tie which is exactly what Rasmussen, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and everyone else is showing.

So this FoxNews poll of Obama +7 when weighted according to a generic likely voter model is right on the nose with everyone else...dead even.

You're working with a flawed premise.

According to the CNN 2008 exit polls the party breakdown of who voted was

39% Democrat
32% Republican
29% Independents

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

 

[McDowell's]

Obama's announced support of gay marriage just handed North Carolina to Romney on a silver platter. Wisconsin I have leaning to Obama but it's holding on to that status by its fingernails. One more poll within the MOE in Wisconsin and it's time to move Wisconsin to a toss up....Colorado I still have leaning to Obama

You can believe whatever you want there, guy.

But your boy is so desperate he's sucking up to Liberty University, which teaches his religions is a cult and how to avoid it.

It would be like Obama going to Bob Jones University when they still had the no-race-mixing policy.

Romney's biggest problem- when people get to know him, they don't like him. He's been doing well lately because he's not been in the spotlight. He's "Generic Republican" right now. He's back in the "MIttness Protection Program."

All I have to do is look at the numbers. Two polls this month of North Carolina. PPP and Rasmussen. Rasmussen has it Romney +8 on an LV model and PPP Obama +1 on an RV model. Averaged together it's Romney +4.5% with a Romney trend. Now PPP has been polling with an average of 5 points in Obama's favor recently against the total average of professional polling agencies and their +1 poll is RV which means it has a natural lean of a good 4 points at least toward Obama. Factor in PPP's recent bias against the average and the RV vs. LV factor and guess what you get: Romney +8.

In other words North Carolina is going heavy toward Romney right now.

In Wisconsin we have three polls this month and the two most recent are within the MOE and the Rasmussen poll a week ago was on the border of the MOE. The trend is toward Romney in Wisconsin. Right now it's right on the verge of being a true toss up.

We haven't seen shit from Colorado for about a month but the most recent poll is a tie by Purple Strategies and that was an LV poll. I still have it for Obama right now but we'll see.

I mean this isn't real fucking hard, you know. You can write a spreadsheet to calculate all this shit in a couple hours and the formulas are pretty easily found with a fucking google search

WTF? Someone that sounds like they actually know what they are talking about. At USMB?

 

[Locke11_21]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

A big change from the 46-46 tie that Fox reported at the end of April.

Incidently, the survey was taken from 5-13 to 5-15.

Right after we found out that Romney beat the snot out of the gay kid in High School...

So, you used the "Fox" News poll. When Romney regains the lead in this poll, will it become "Faux" News again? Just thought I would ask.

 

[blackhawk]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

A big change from the 46-46 tie that Fox reported at the end of April.

Incidently, the survey was taken from 5-13 to 5-15.

Right after we found out that Romney beat the snot out of the gay kid in High School...

So, you used the "Fox" News poll. When Romney regains the lead in this poll, will it become "Faux" News again? Just thought I would ask.

Oh I don't think there is any doubt about that.

 

[whitehall]

April 13-17. Lefties must be desperate.

 

[NYcarbineer]

You can believe whatever you want there, guy.

But your boy is so desperate he's sucking up to Liberty University, which teaches his religions is a cult and how to avoid it.

It would be like Obama going to Bob Jones University when they still had the no-race-mixing policy.

Romney's biggest problem- when people get to know him, they don't like him. He's been doing well lately because he's not been in the spotlight. He's "Generic Republican" right now. He's back in the "MIttness Protection Program."

All I have to do is look at the numbers. Two polls this month of North Carolina. PPP and Rasmussen. Rasmussen has it Romney +8 on an LV model and PPP Obama +1 on an RV model. Averaged together it's Romney +4.5% with a Romney trend. Now PPP has been polling with an average of 5 points in Obama's favor recently against the total average of professional polling agencies and their +1 poll is RV which means it has a natural lean of a good 4 points at least toward Obama. Factor in PPP's recent bias against the average and the RV vs. LV factor and guess what you get: Romney +8.

In other words North Carolina is going heavy toward Romney right now.

In Wisconsin we have three polls this month and the two most recent are within the MOE and the Rasmussen poll a week ago was on the border of the MOE. The trend is toward Romney in Wisconsin. Right now it's right on the verge of being a true toss up.

We haven't seen shit from Colorado for about a month but the most recent poll is a tie by Purple Strategies and that was an LV poll. I still have it for Obama right now but we'll see.

I mean this isn't real fucking hard, you know. You can write a spreadsheet to calculate all this shit in a couple hours and the formulas are pretty easily found with a fucking google search

WTF? Someone that sounds like they actually know what they are talking about. At USMB?

Don't be fooled.

 

[JoeB131]

Obama's announced support of gay marriage just handed North Carolina to Romney on a silver platter. Wisconsin I have leaning to Obama but it's holding on to that status by its fingernails. One more poll within the MOE in Wisconsin and it's time to move Wisconsin to a toss up....Colorado I still have leaning to Obama

You can believe whatever you want there, guy.

But your boy is so desperate he's sucking up to Liberty University, which teaches his religions is a cult and how to avoid it.

It would be like Obama going to Bob Jones University when they still had the no-race-mixing policy.

Romney's biggest problem- when people get to know him, they don't like him. He's been doing well lately because he's not been in the spotlight. He's "Generic Republican" right now. He's back in the "MIttness Protection Program."

You are so desperate is right, JoeB, you so describe yourself.

Deflecting again, man?

Hey, frankly, I find it funny after all the whining about anti-Mormon bigots, he's going to the anti-Mormon bigots and sucking up, and not even mentioning he's a Mormon.

Too funny.

 

[JoeB131]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

A big change from the 46-46 tie that Fox reported at the end of April.

Incidently, the survey was taken from 5-13 to 5-15.

Right after we found out that Romney beat the snot out of the gay kid in High School...

So, you used the "Fox" News poll. When Romney regains the lead in this poll, will it become "Faux" News again? Just thought I would ask.

Oh, no, it's always "Faux" news. The very fact that even Faux can't fudge the numbers (unlike Rassumussen, who has no shame) says a lot.

Now that people are starting to ask themselves, "Who is Mitt Romney", it ain't going to be pretty for Romney.

Mostly because even Romney's own supporters don't like him much, they just hate Obama more.

 

[The Rabbi]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

A big change from the 46-46 tie that Fox reported at the end of April.

Incidently, the survey was taken from 5-13 to 5-15.

Right after we found out that Romney beat the snot out of the gay kid in High School...

So, you used the "Fox" News poll. When Romney regains the lead in this poll, will it become "Faux" News again? Just thought I would ask.

Oh, no, it's always "Faux" news. The very fact that even Faux can't fudge the numbers (unlike Rassumussen, who has no shame) says a lot.

Now that people are starting to ask themselves, "Who is Mitt Romney", it ain't going to be pretty for Romney.

Mostly because even Romney's own supporters don't like him much, they just hate Obama more.

You''re voicing your hopes because you are a hateful envious bigot.
The truth is that as Romney campaigns more, more people like him. As Obama campaigns more, fewer people like him. With the economy slipping into recession again, it will be Romney. Suck it up.

 

[JoeB131]

You''re voicing your hopes because you are a hateful envious bigot.
The truth is that as Romney campaigns more, more people like him. As Obama campaigns more, fewer people like him. With the economy slipping into recession again, it will be Romney. Suck it up.

I'm actually pointing out the history. People don't like Romney when they get a good look at him. the only reason he isn't trailing as bad as he was a couple months ago is they have him in the "Mittness Protection Program" of keeping him away from microphones.

You didn't like him much back in November when you were supporting the retard, Perry.

So please be happy you sold out, for nothing, when Obama wins a second term.

 

[The Rabbi]

You''re voicing your hopes because you are a hateful envious bigot.
The truth is that as Romney campaigns more, more people like him. As Obama campaigns more, fewer people like him. With the economy slipping into recession again, it will be Romney. Suck it up.

I'm actually pointing out the history. People don't like Romney when they get a good look at him. the only reason he isn't trailing as bad as he was a couple months ago is they have him in the "Mittness Protection Program" of keeping him away from microphones.

You didn't like him much back in November when you were supporting the retard, Perry.

So please be happy you sold out, for nothing, when Obama wins a second term.

Romney is probably the most exposed candidate we've ever had. Every day he is speaking or giving interviews ormaking campaign appearances. And he has survived a very brutal 6 months of that.
He is not my first choice, true. I hardly "sold out". That is stupidity. My first choice candidate didnt make it. Like that never happens.
So now I support Romney in part because i think he will do well, and in part because another 4 years of Obama is something this country could not survive. He is the most incompetent president since Jean Bokassa.

 

[JoeB131]

Romney is probably the most exposed candidate we've ever had. Every day he is speaking or giving interviews ormaking campaign appearances. And he has survived a very brutal 6 months of that.
He is not my first choice, true. I hardly "sold out". That is stupidity. My first choice candidate didnt make it. Like that never happens.
So now I support Romney in part because i think he will do well, and in part because another 4 years of Obama is something this country could not survive. He is the most incompetent president since Jean Bokassa.

Oh, please.

Romney avoids the real press like the plague. He doesn't go on Meet the Press or Face the Nation. He goes on Fox News where he gets tossed softball questions.

And frankly, the media wasn't brutal to him, they did have his dirty work for him by going after Perry, Gingrich, Cain and Santorum for him. Now they are truning their guns on him, and listen to you people whine.

I don't think Obama's been a great president, but I'm still waiting for you jokers to tell me what he's done that is all that radical. He's continued most of Bush's policies, he's implemented the medical plan Romney called a "Model for the Nation",

Has he been the most effective President? NOt really. But Romney wasn't an effective governor. And he's evil.