New Fox News Poll- Obama 46, Romney 39

[Liability]

Romney is probably the most exposed candidate we've ever had. Every day he is speaking or giving interviews ormaking campaign appearances. And he has survived a very brutal 6 months of that.
He is not my first choice, true. I hardly "sold out". That is stupidity. My first choice candidate didnt make it. Like that never happens.
So now I support Romney in part because i think he will do well, and in part because another 4 years of Obama is something this country could not survive. He is the most incompetent president since Jean Bokassa.

Oh, please.

Romney avoids the real press like the plague. He doesn't go on Meet the Press or Face the Nation. He goes on Fox News where he gets tossed softball questions.

And frankly, the media wasn't brutal to him, they did have his dirty work for him by going after Perry, Gingrich, Cain and Santorum for him. Now they are truning their guns on him, and listen to you people whine.

I don't think Obama's been a great president, but I'm still waiting for you jokers to tell me what he's done that is all that radical. He's continued most of Bush's policies, he's implemented the medical plan Romney called a "Model for the Nation",

Has he been the most effective President? NOt really. But Romney wasn't an effective governor. And he's evil.

How trite.

 

[The Rabbi]

Oh, no, it's always "Faux" news. The very fact that even Faux can't fudge the numbers (unlike Rassumussen, who has no shame) says a lot.

Now that people are starting to ask themselves, "Who is Mitt Romney", it ain't going to be pretty for Romney.

Mostly because even Romney's own supporters don't like him much, they just hate Obama more.

You''re voicing your hopes because you are a hateful envious bigot.
The truth is that as Romney campaigns more, more people like him. As Obama campaigns more, fewer people like him. With the economy slipping into recession again, it will be Romney. Suck it up.

it must be tiring lying so much

I don't know.
You know much more about lying than I do because you do it in every post.

 

[Katzndogz]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

 

[The Rabbi]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

Both

 

[Moonglow]

faux news poll

 

[BluePhantom]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

Well to some degree it depends on who you ask. If you average only the data from professional pollsters Romney's support has stayed pretty stable at around 45.5% since Santorum dropped from the race on April 10. Obama's support has slid.

Among only media polls you see pretty much the same thing but with a little more bumping around and showing better results for Obama as i discussed earlier. If you take all media polls and professional polls together and average them out then Romney's support stays stable but Obama's slide increases more dramatically.

But since Romney is not picking up the support that Obama is losing basically what it means is that a lot of people are switching from "Support Obama" to "Undecided". That's particularly evident among Independents where Obama has slid from an average of 42% support on April 17th to 35% support as of yesterday. Obama's slide among Democrats and republicans also show slides but not nearly as dramatically. Among Independents Romney has again stayed pretty stable.

 

[BDBoop]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

Why are they starting to like him more? What has changed? He still looks the same to me, i.e., shifting with the wind. He hasn't said anything new or more specific about what his plans are for this nation.

 

[JakeStarkey]

You can believe whatever you want there, guy.

But your boy is so desperate he's sucking up to Liberty University, which teaches his religions is a cult and how to avoid it.

It would be like Obama going to Bob Jones University when they still had the no-race-mixing policy.

Romney's biggest problem- when people get to know him, they don't like him. He's been doing well lately because he's not been in the spotlight. He's "Generic Republican" right now. He's back in the "MIttness Protection Program."

You are so desperate is right, JoeB, you so describe yourself.

Deflecting again, man?

Hey, frankly, I find it funny after all the whining about anti-Mormon bigots, he's going to the anti-Mormon bigots and sucking up, and not even mentioning he's a Mormon.

Too funny.

Why are you deflecting again.

You are the anti-Mormon bigot, JoeB. Let's be honest.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Rassmussen - Oct. 13, 2010 Inouye 53% Cavasso 40%
Actual Nov. 2, 2010 Inouye 74.81% Cavasso 21.57%

Yeah "dead on the nose"

In the 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rassmussen and Pulse Opinion Research they missed the final margin by 5.8 points (way too high for "professional" pollsters) 13 polls missed by 10 points or more, in 55 polls they overestimate Republican support by 3 points or more (as opposed to overestimating Democratic support by 3 points or more in 12 races)

Their average house bias is + 3.9 in favor of Republicans. An honest "margin for error" would swing both ways Einstein.

You ever met anyone with a high school math class under their belt? (You wouldn't get along)

Woah, those are excellent points.

Is there a link I can find this information on all in one place, or was this a compilation?

Because I'd love to peruse your source material.

All you have to do is google "Rassmussen Republican Bias." There's a wealth of hard evidence to prove the points. Also plenty of infomation about Scotty Rassmussen taking money from the Bush Campaign, the RNC, several local Republican organizations, a cruise from a conservative think tank, etc.

Scotty has jumped the shark and his business plan is now clearly to pander to conservative clients. It's very well known throughout the professional polling community and the numbers all back it up.

The only people who pay any attention to Rassmussen anymore, are the people who are grinding the same ax that Scotty is grinding. Professional independent polling organizations just don't do that kinda crap.

 

[nodoginnafight]

@blueballs
An honest "margin for error" would swing both ways Einstein.

Yeah that's right genius. So if the margin of error is 4 and your polls say Candidate A +3 and the final result is anywhere from Candidate A +7 to -1 then guess what!!!!! You're within the margin of error. HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!!! What a concept. Now when you are looking at an average of polls the margin of error will increase because the standard deviation increases as well. So when you say they were off by 3.9 in an average of polls and you consider that the standard MOE in an individual poll is usually 3-4 (depending on the type of poll) and you realize that the MOE will increase the more polls you add into the average, then what you are unwittingly claiming is that on average they are correct as it's within the MOE. Good Christ.

Maybe you should consider de-cafe dude. Why are you so butt-hurt, vulgar, and apoplectic?

Honest polling errors don't ALWAYS favor the Republican. That is an error by design. It's called the house effect and Rassmussen's has been statistically proven. No one who actually knows anything about polling will even try to dispute it. Just hyper-partisan hacks who want to create the same false impressions Scotty tries to create.

 

[Liability]

@blueballs
An honest "margin for error" would swing both ways Einstein.

Yeah that's right genius. So if the margin of error is 4 and your polls say Candidate A +3 and the final result is anywhere from Candidate A +7 to -1 then guess what!!!!! You're within the margin of error. HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!!! What a concept. Now when you are looking at an average of polls the margin of error will increase because the standard deviation increases as well. So when you say they were off by 3.9 in an average of polls and you consider that the standard MOE in an individual poll is usually 3-4 (depending on the type of poll) and you realize that the MOE will increase the more polls you add into the average, then what you are unwittingly claiming is that on average they are correct as it's within the MOE. Good Christ.

Maybe you should consider de-cafe dude. Why are you so butt-hurt, vulgar, and apoplectic?

Honest polling errors don't ALWAYS favor the Republican. That is an error by design. It's called the house effect and Rassmussen's has been statistically proven. No one who actually knows anything about polling will even try to dispute it. Just hyper-partisan hacks who want to create the same false impressions Scotty tries to create.

Look. Just because actual math undercuts the arguments you've been futilely attempting to make doesn't mean you should lash out at BP.

We all see him educating you. We also see you failing to learn.

Take your butthurt to a clinic, get a strong shot of "man up" and then come back when you aren't feeling so weepy.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Yeah that's right genius. So if the margin of error is 4 and your polls say Candidate A +3 and the final result is anywhere from Candidate A +7 to -1 then guess what!!!!! You're within the margin of error. HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!!! What a concept. Now when you are looking at an average of polls the margin of error will increase because the standard deviation increases as well. So when you say they were off by 3.9 in an average of polls and you consider that the standard MOE in an individual poll is usually 3-4 (depending on the type of poll) and you realize that the MOE will increase the more polls you add into the average, then what you are unwittingly claiming is that on average they are correct as it's within the MOE. Good Christ.

Maybe you should consider de-cafe dude. Why are you so butt-hurt, vulgar, and apoplectic?

Honest polling errors don't ALWAYS favor the Republican. That is an error by design. It's called the house effect and Rassmussen's has been statistically proven. No one who actually knows anything about polling will even try to dispute it. Just hyper-partisan hacks who want to create the same false impressions Scotty tries to create.

Look. Just because actual math undercuts the arguments you've been futilely attempting to make doesn't mean you should lash out at BP.

We all see him educating you. We also see you failing to learn.

Take your butthurt to a clinic, get a strong shot of "man up" and then come back when you aren't feeling so weepy.

Awwww whipped him so bad his big sister had to come to his defense?????? How precious.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

That's a fascinating question considering that Romney LOST 7 points in a month in the Fox poll that is the topic of this thread.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

That's a fascinating question considering that Romney LOST 7 points in a month in the Fox poll that is the topic of this thread.

That does seem to undercut the "why do people like Romney more" question, huh?

 

[Sarah G]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

That's a fascinating question considering that Romney LOST 7 points in a month in the Fox poll that is the topic of this thread.

Fox probably forgot to cook the polling books this time.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Is it that people are starting to like Romney more, or that obama is drifting toward the despicable?

That's a fascinating question considering that Romney LOST 7 points in a month in the Fox poll that is the topic of this thread.

Fox probably forgot to cook the polling books this time.

Well, they do contract with Rassmussen to do their polling for them.

(Same company that produced a poll claiming results from 120% of the public)

 

[BluePhantom]

All you have to do is google "Rassmussen Republican Bias." There's a wealth of hard evidence to prove the points. Also plenty of infomation about Scotty Rassmussen taking money from the Bush Campaign, the RNC, several local Republican organizations, a cruise from a conservative think tank, etc.

Scotty has jumped the shark and his business plan is now clearly to pander to conservative clients. It's very well known throughout the professional polling community and the numbers all back it up.

The only people who pay any attention to Rassmussen anymore, are the people who are grinding the same ax that Scotty is grinding. Professional independent polling organizations just don't do that kinda crap.

When did I ever say that Rasmussen has no house bias? ALL pollsters have a house bias. That's why it's called a "house bias". It's the bias specific to their "house". Good shooting Christ. The problem is that you and NYC are so busy going nutso over Rasmussen's bias yet you clearly don't seem to mind anyone else's bias that favors Obama. I don't see you raising much hell that PPP, who is affiliated with the Democratic party, has been releasing polls over the last two months that on average give Obama a five point better spread than the rest of the professional pollsters, yet when they release a poll commissioned by the Daily Kos it's right in line with everyone else. How amazing!! Well where's your outrage over that bullshit.

This is why when you look at polls you NEVER take one poll as gospel and by the same token you NEVER disregard any poll. The house biases, that every pollster will have, will equal each other out or at least be minimized when you calculate the mean.

Furthermore, the 3.9 bias, you so adamantly insist is accurate yet refuse to provide any documentation for, is fucking laughable. A) the house bias will change from year to year or even month to month. It will also appear to be greater at certain times of the year when a greater number of RV polls are being performed as opposed to the LV polls that Rasmussen performs exclusively. So right now, when the vast majority of polls are RV polls that have a natural lean toward Democrats, the Rasmussen house bias will appear to be larger although in reality that increase is simply reflecting the natural difference between an RV and LV poll. When the election gets closer everyone will start doing LV polls instead as they are more accurate and then you will see Rasmussen's differential against the mean decrease.

Rightwinger said in an earlier post that Rasmussen's doesn't release their accurate polls until right before the election. No it just appears that way because right before the election everyone will go from RV to LV and as a result everyone else's polls will suddenly start showing a better Republican performance because they will be eliminating the natural Democratic lean of an RV poll.

B) You clearly are not getting the idea that the more polls an agency does the greater their differential will be. This has nothing to do with the quality of the pollster and everything to do with the law of probabilities. The big error that people make is to look at a poll and assume: "this is what this pollster says IS happening". Wrong...it's based on a confidence interval that is almost universally set at 95% (though I have caught some unscrupulous pollsters set it lower...and no Rasmussen isn't one of them). What this means is that the poll is saying "there is a 95% chance that this is what is happening".

Sometimes, the results fall into that 5% and that's what we call an outlier. Well when you do 9 polls the chances that one of them will be an outlier is low. With only 9 polls maybe one of them will be an outlier but statistically speaking probably not. When you do hundreds of polls as Rasmussen does, your chances of getting an outlier increases dramatically. With 100 polls, statistically speaking, you can expect 5 of them to be outliers at least. That's simply the law of probabilities and when factored into the overall differential as an average, it means that differential is going to increase.

So to summarize:

1) Your outrage over house bias is conveniently selective and flat out hypocritical. When you start showing the same outrage over PPP as you are about Rasmussen, I might start taking you more seriously.

2) House bias will change from year to year, month to month, and will be impacted by the type of poll you are doing compared to what type of polls everyone else is doing.

3) You conveniently overlook that polling is subject to laws of randomness and probability. Those laws indicate that the more polls you perform, the more your likelihood of getting an outlier, and hence the more your average differential will increase.

This is basic fucking statistics man....I mean we're talking first semester concepts here and you still can't seem to grasp it.

 

[BluePhantom]

Maybe you should consider de-cafe dude. Why are you so butt-hurt, vulgar, and apoplectic?

Honest polling errors don't ALWAYS favor the Republican. That is an error by design. It's called the house effect and Rassmussen's has been statistically proven. No one who actually knows anything about polling will even try to dispute it. Just hyper-partisan hacks who want to create the same false impressions Scotty tries to create.

Look. Just because actual math undercuts the arguments you've been futilely attempting to make doesn't mean you should lash out at BP.

We all see him educating you. We also see you failing to learn.

Take your butthurt to a clinic, get a strong shot of "man up" and then come back when you aren't feeling so weepy.

Awwww whipped him so bad his big sister had to come to his defense?????? How precious.

Talk about wishful thinking

 

[nodoginnafight]

Funny how many words you have to use to try to perform statistical alchemy.

There are those who know what they are talking about and those who try to appear like they know what they are talking about. They are not hard to tell apart. (Really smart people LOVE emoticons.)

 

[BluePhantom]

Funny how many words you have to use to try to perform statistical alchemy.

There are those who know what they are talking about and those who try to appear like they know what they are talking about. They are not hard to tell apart. (Really smart people LOVE emoticons.)

This is an example of the "whippin" you insist you are delivering? OOOOOOOOOOOOOK pal.