Mushroom
Gold Member
The invasion will be multi-pronged, intense and over-whelming.
Well, that will be the intent at least.
But to be honest, I think it would rather quickly bog down, as did the invasions of South Korea and Ukraine. China simply does not have the logistical ability to stage an overwhelming attack with a nation they do not share a land border with. They lack the air assets to stage a large air assault, and the naval assets to stage a large amphibious assault. They might try to control the air and sea lanes around Taiwan, but I can't see them keeping it up for very long.
When one looks at the capabilities of the PLAAF and the PLAN, that is where the huge problems are seen. The California Air National Guard has more airlift capability than the entire Chinese military. And their entire sealift capability is around a single Infantry Division. Nowhere near enough manpower to take on the Taiwan Army. Meanwhile, Taiwan can expect actual support with combat forces from the US, France, UK, Australia, and Japan. South Korea might assist, that would largely depend on conditions between them and North Korea at the time. And while there have been some issues between Taiwan and Philippines, I think they would at a minimum conduct increased naval patrols and insist that China stay out of their territorial waters.
Multi-pronged and intense I do see, but I can't really see it as being "over-whelming" with what little China has capable to bring forces to Taiwan. Them invading Taiwan is not like walking into Mordor. Sorry, like invading Vietnam.