oldfart
Older than dirt
The Google Consumer Survey is conducting a poll as to how people perceive the deficit is changing. The wording is: "How do you think the United Stats Federal Government's budget deficit has changed since 2010?" This seems like a petty straightforward factual question which most people could look up if they wanted to. So what are the results?
Increased a lot--------------------47.2%
Increased a little------------------12.4%
Stayed about the same----------23.1%
Decreased a little--------------------9.0%
Decreased a lot----------------------8.3%
Link: How do you think the US Federal Government's yearly budget deficit has changed since January 2010?
Now in 2010 the deficit was about 9% of GDP and now it is about 4%. People can quibble about the differences between "a little" and "a lot" and about whether we are talking about the absolute size of the deficit in nominal terms, inflation-adjusted terms, percapita terms, or percentage of GDP; but the results are not sensitive to the measure, all measures are much lower now than in 2010.
So by all measures the deficit is dropping pretty dramatically (to less than half of 2010 levels) while Americans believe overwhelmingly (82.7%) that it has not dropped at all and almost half think it has increased a lot.
I assume that the general public gets the misinformation from the blogosphere and punditocracy. There may be some self-selection here as people who are deficit hawks tend to read like-thinking pundits, but over 80%? A lot of these respondents voted for Obama, both times, and I cannot impagine they all get their information from Hannity.
So folks, any opinions as to why people believe this way and why this misinformation seems impervious to facts? Inquiring minds want to know!
Increased a lot--------------------47.2%
Increased a little------------------12.4%
Stayed about the same----------23.1%
Decreased a little--------------------9.0%
Decreased a lot----------------------8.3%
Link: How do you think the US Federal Government's yearly budget deficit has changed since January 2010?
Now in 2010 the deficit was about 9% of GDP and now it is about 4%. People can quibble about the differences between "a little" and "a lot" and about whether we are talking about the absolute size of the deficit in nominal terms, inflation-adjusted terms, percapita terms, or percentage of GDP; but the results are not sensitive to the measure, all measures are much lower now than in 2010.
So by all measures the deficit is dropping pretty dramatically (to less than half of 2010 levels) while Americans believe overwhelmingly (82.7%) that it has not dropped at all and almost half think it has increased a lot.
I assume that the general public gets the misinformation from the blogosphere and punditocracy. There may be some self-selection here as people who are deficit hawks tend to read like-thinking pundits, but over 80%? A lot of these respondents voted for Obama, both times, and I cannot impagine they all get their information from Hannity.
So folks, any opinions as to why people believe this way and why this misinformation seems impervious to facts? Inquiring minds want to know!
Last edited: