Andylusion
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2014
- 21,320
- 6,434
I'm seeing a lot of discussion but can't figure out who has the majority.
To re-open the US economy in a limited fashion around Easter Monday (4/13/20) with masks, social distancing, no sports venues, no cruises, or major crowds, just minimal re-opening businesses. The object is to keep as many companies in-business as possible.
Trump wants to reopen US businesses in weeks 'not months' even as deaths rise – as it happened
Democrats voted to oppose motion on the coronavirus stimulus bill, while Dr Anthony Fauci and others warn against scaling back social distancingwww.theguardian.com
Or, keep the economy and businesses shutdown until the coronavirus (COVID-19) is under control as recommended by the doctors, even if that means that many businesses would NOT re-open due to the lost revenue and bankruptcy.
All of the lock down measures that I've seen, have not been effective, as near as I can tell.
The clear example of this, would be Italy, which is again as near as I can tell, has the most strict and harsh lock down measure of any country.
Yet virus infections are still rising.
So.... given there doesn't seem to be much value in lock down, then we are left with a pointless policy that damages the entire economy. Corona, no matter which way you look at it, will be short term. Damage to the economy will be long term.
Now I do understand the logic, of trying to flatten the curve, and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Again... not seeing that this is working.
I tried to explain this to these guys before it all has to do with the natural logarithm of increase. Most socially transmitted diseases fall well within the realm of controllability by virtue of their contagion factor. But this thing is right off the charts. It really makes a person suspicious that it shows up with a two-week incubation period. Now consider the fact that the natural logarithm also has an inverse proportionality. Since 3 is a limit that it never reaches the fact that this thing has a contagion factor of more than that indicates that it's probably not controllable at all. Based on our ability to increase our treatment of it we find ourselves falling below the natural logarithm of increase. And we will never surpass that because nothing in nature ever has. Along comes covid-19 where the infected person most likely contacts hundreds of people before he knows he's even sick.
The mathematical indicators create an impossible scenario. even those places that are now boasting control and containment or complete elimination will eventually be ravaged. It's inescapable.
Jo
You can't be ravaged if your on lockdown. China has effectively controlled it. If there is a second wave after they reopen, they can lockdown again. As time goes by, we get closer to a vaccine. With a vaccine, everything changes.
Japan only has 1,500 cases. Its under control there. It could have been that way too for the United States, but Trump and the rest of the leadership failed to act in January and February.
I agree with one point....Vaccine yes.
Other than that I predict global exposure
Is inevitable.... It's not going away.
Jo
Exactly. That's the point. The problem with this logic, is that we are still operating under the impression that we can eliminate this.
Well... the Chinese haven't been able to eliminate the other Corona strains, and they were LESS contagious than this strain.
Again.... could be wrong. Could be wrong! I'll be the first to admit it!
But given that they can't eliminate the previous less dangerous strain, and this strain hasn't been contained...... anywhere.....
So if you can contain this thing, I see precious little evidence to support it.