Rasmussen: Obama Leads 50% - 45%

[notomccain]

obama now up 50-42 on gallup

 

[jillian]

what's with you and your fixture on polls?

the real poll is on nov 4

I'm not the one running around saying a one point lead means a slam dunk. You'd have to talk to the bushbots about that. And I don't recall seeing your complaints about those threads. This is just current events and trends.

Sorry if reality poses a problem for you.

 

[jillian]

Oh wait, his lead dropped by 4 points now according to rasmussen....
Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—including the first day of post-debate polling—is unchanged. Barack Obama once again attracts 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This six-point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for two-days running (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters, McCain by 55%.

All this poll crap is highly unreliable, you don't swing 4 points over night, unless you attempted to blow up the United States over night.

Is Ayers back at it again....

Nope... Sarah Palin talked... McCain misplayed the financial negotiations.. and then Obama won the debate that was supposed to be a slam dunk for McCain (at least according to the bots).

Not really difficult to figure out. And now let's see how Sarah does on Thursday.

 

[Jennifer.Bush]

I'm not the one running around saying a one point lead means a slam dunk. You'd have to talk to the bushbots about that. And I don't recall seeing your complaints about those threads. This is just current events and trends.

Sorry if reality poses a problem for you.

2,000 people where dems out number reps is not reality

 

[jillian]

2,000 people where dems out number reps is not reality

What are you talking about?

 

[DiveCon]

2,000 people where dems out number reps is not reality

shhhh, its usually less than 1000 and they are over sampling dems by at least 5%


but they dont want to hear that truth
watch as the pollsters slowly drop the amount of the over sample as they get closer to the election, it happens every election

 

[Jennifer.Bush]

What are you talking about?

I'm talking about polls, where if you go on gallup site they show the number of those polled and what party they belong to

 

[Caligirl]

The trends are the things to follow, as we all know, and those trends clearly show the dems up, both in the national polling as well as the electoral count

example:

You can see the Dem convention Bounce at Aug 28ish, the Palin bounce around september 5th, and the gradual slide for McCain ever since. This graph is a result of averaged polls.

realclearpolitics.com

 

[Jennifer.Bush]

The trends are the things to follow, as we all know, and those trends clearly show the dems up, both in the national polling as well as the electoral count

example:

You can see the Dem convention Bounce at Aug 28ish, the Palin bounce around september 5th, and the gradual slide for McCain ever since. This graph is a result of averaged polls.

realclearpolitics.com

so once again 7,070 people don't = 100 million americans

 

[Caligirl]

But the treends are statistically significant and bounces can be tied to actual events such as the Palin pick etc.

I'm sorry. McCain could easily rally, there are clearly 10% of the electorate who flip back and forth.

 

[Silence]

so once again 7,070 people don't = 100 million americans

then why the fuck do these places conduct polls? and why were the Cons circle jerking each other just two weeks ago when McCain was leading the polls?

 

[SwingVoter]

It's Obama's to lose, too many states like OH, NC, and VA getting close, and Mac's unlikely to turn any of the Kerry states.

 

[del]

then why the fuck do these places conduct polls? and why were the Cons circle jerking each other just two weeks ago when McCain was leading the polls?

why not?

 

[Chris]

Palin - Biden debate and then Palin get recommended for indictment on Oct. 10th.

Then McCain drops Palin and picks up Romney.....

.....or Miss Teen South Carolina.

 

[del]

Palin - Biden debate and then Palin get recommended for indictment on Oct. 10th.

Then McCain drops Palin and picks up Romney.....

.....or Miss Teen South Carolina.

does Miss Teen South Carolina have a restraining order out on you, kirky?

she should.

 

[Ninja]

No reason to stick my head in the sand, this is now Obama's election to lose. The election isn't in the bag but he's definitely the favorite right now.

The good news: It's a month out and many a candidate have overcome far greater hurdles than trailing by 5 points at this point.

 

[jillian]

then why the fuck do these places conduct polls? and why were the Cons circle jerking each other just two weeks ago when McCain was leading the polls?

She's just being a pedant. She knows what the polls mean. If she doesn't, she's just brain dead.

 

[Ninja]

Actually Rasmussen really doesn't have a great track record in presidential elections.

And Jennifer is absolutely correct when she brings up the geographical issue w.r.t. the tracking polls.

 

[jillian]

Actually Rasmussen really doesn't have a great track record in presidential elections.

And Jennifer is absolutely correct when she brings up the geographical issue w.r.t. the tracking polls.

Zogby was the one that was wrong in 2004, not Rasmussen. And no, she's not.

Besides, in case you forgot, Rasmussen is the repub polling co.

 

[DiveCon]

She's just being a pedant. She knows what the polls mean. If she doesn't, she's just brain dead.

really?
and which definition are you using in this case?

pedant - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary