Reason Number 10,378 why Trump will Win in 2020

[Terri4Trump]

...........I think it's fair to say that Trump energized both sides to show up. The numbers on the Democrat side are staggering at a 70% increase. Again, that's in a midterm election.
What do you make of these numbers?
Simply put, I think Trump has gotten the attention of a lot of eligible voters who were otherwise uninterested in politics in the past. And a lot of these previously uninterested voters absolutely hate Trump. I think Republicans woke up a sleeping giant..........

I think this is mostly correct. I would add that many Republicans who stayed home because they were sick of RINO's also got motivated to go to the poles. So both sides got motivated.

Now, here is another reason Trump will win. Here are some facts about the American economy:

• Jobs have grown for 106 consecutive months, the longest streak on record.
• At 121 months, this is the longest bull market in American history.
• The unemployment rate has been at 4 percent or less for 16 consecutive months, the longest such streak in 50 years.
• Inequality remains a crucial problem, but wages are now growing the fastest among the lowest-wage industries, thanks to state-by-state increases in the minimum wage and the effects of low unemployment.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index, which peaked at 112 in 1999, has hovered above 90 for more than four years, something that hasn’t happened since the 1990s.
• Latino unemployment has fallen to its lowest rate on record.
• Black unemployment, too, has fallen to its lowest rate on record, and, as the investor and Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen points out, the unemployment rate for black teenagers, which peaked at 48.9 percent in 2010, has plunged to yet another record low in 2019.

 

[Third Party]

...........I think it's fair to say that Trump energized both sides to show up. The numbers on the Democrat side are staggering at a 70% increase. Again, that's in a midterm election.
What do you make of these numbers?
Simply put, I think Trump has gotten the attention of a lot of eligible voters who were otherwise uninterested in politics in the past. And a lot of these previously uninterested voters absolutely hate Trump. I think Republicans woke up a sleeping giant..........

I think this is mostly correct. I would add that many Republicans who stayed home because they were sick of RINO's also got motivated to go to the poles. So both sides got motivated.

Now, here is another reason Trump will win. Here are some facts about the American economy:

• Jobs have grown for 106 consecutive months, the longest streak on record.
• At 121 months, this is the longest bull market in American history.
• The unemployment rate has been at 4 percent or less for 16 consecutive months, the longest such streak in 50 years.
• Inequality remains a crucial problem, but wages are now growing the fastest among the lowest-wage industries, thanks to state-by-state increases in the minimum wage and the effects of low unemployment.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index, which peaked at 112 in 1999, has hovered above 90 for more than four years, something that hasn’t happened since the 1990s.
• Latino unemployment has fallen to its lowest rate on record.
• Black unemployment, too, has fallen to its lowest rate on record, and, as the investor and Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen points out, the unemployment rate for black teenagers, which peaked at 48.9 percent in 2010, has plunged to yet another record low in 2019.

The economy won't affect 47% of the population-they don't work. Trump needs to shape up or he will be out. People like Biden-they don't like Trump-me included-and I voted for Trump. Its getting harder to argue with the crazy Democrats on behavioral issues.

 

[rightwinger]

If you were to ask a gay person, they would tell you it is ALWAYS a RWer

I know many conservative gays.
They don’t participate in public spectacles.

LOL.....they are conservatives
They know their place. Stay in the shadows and keep your mouth shut

Unlike you, they don’t feel the need to flash their penises during a Gay Pride Parade.
I have no idea why a physical inclination deserves a parade.

Feel that intimidated?

Grossed out.
Even professional athletes have to work out to excel.
A pride parade based on sexual preference?
You object to pride based on skin color.
You are a hypocrite.

A pride parade from a group that has been told for centuries to hide in the shadows

 

[rightwinger]

...........I think it's fair to say that Trump energized both sides to show up. The numbers on the Democrat side are staggering at a 70% increase. Again, that's in a midterm election.
What do you make of these numbers?
Simply put, I think Trump has gotten the attention of a lot of eligible voters who were otherwise uninterested in politics in the past. And a lot of these previously uninterested voters absolutely hate Trump. I think Republicans woke up a sleeping giant..........

I think this is mostly correct. I would add that many Republicans who stayed home because they were sick of RINO's also got motivated to go to the poles. So both sides got motivated.

Now, here is another reason Trump will win. Here are some facts about the American economy:

• Jobs have grown for 106 consecutive months, the longest streak on record.
• At 121 months, this is the longest bull market in American history.
• The unemployment rate has been at 4 percent or less for 16 consecutive months, the longest such streak in 50 years.
• Inequality remains a crucial problem, but wages are now growing the fastest among the lowest-wage industries, thanks to state-by-state increases in the minimum wage and the effects of low unemployment.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index, which peaked at 112 in 1999, has hovered above 90 for more than four years, something that hasn’t happened since the 1990s.
• Latino unemployment has fallen to its lowest rate on record.
• Black unemployment, too, has fallen to its lowest rate on record, and, as the investor and Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen points out, the unemployment rate for black teenagers, which peaked at 48.9 percent in 2010, has plunged to yet another record low in 2019.

Your first two bullets point to an Obama economy

 

[Terri4Trump]

....Trump needs to shape up or he will be out........

I never let the craziness of the moment affect me. I have positions on certain policies, they have not changed, Trump has not changed, and my vote will not change. I will never understand people who change their vote. Did they all of a sudden become pro choice? Pro gay marriage? How can a voter flip flop? It makes no sense to me.

 

[rightwinger]

....Trump needs to shape up or he will be out........

I never let the craziness of the moment affect me. I have positions on certain policies, they have not changed, Trump has not changed, and my vote will not change. I will never understand people who change their vote. Did they all of a sudden become pro choice? Pro gay marriage? How can a voter flip flop? It makes no sense to me.

People evolve
Twenty years ago people would have laughed at the idea of gay marriage. Now most Americans support it

 

[Third Party]

....Trump needs to shape up or he will be out........

I never let the craziness of the moment affect me. I have positions on certain policies, they have not changed, Trump has not changed, and my vote will not change. I will never understand people who change their vote. Did they all of a sudden become pro choice? Pro gay marriage? How can a voter flip flop? It makes no sense to me.

Most of what I hear is "I did not think he would be such a bully". These voters are not hurting economically so they are lukewarm about economic matters. If Trump improves his personality, he wins.

 

[Terri4Trump]

People evolve
Twenty years ago people would have laughed at the idea of gay marriage. Now most Americans support it

Wrong is wrong and right is right. Wrong does not magically become right. The only way that wrong can become right in someone's head is if they have abandoned the ultimate source that decides wrong from right. That is not evolution, its devolution.

 

[rightwinger]

People evolve
Twenty years ago people would have laughed at the idea of gay marriage. Now most Americans support it

Wrong is wrong and right is right. Wrong does not magically become right. The only way that wrong can become right in someone's head is if they have abandoned the ultimate source that decides wrong from right. That is not evolution, its devolution.

You are correct

Homosexuality has always been right. It harms no one. It was hateful people who passed legislation and made it an illegal activity

 

[Terri4Trump]

.....Homosexuality has always been right.......

Wrong. It has always been an abomination in the eyes of God, a mortal sin. You have abandoned the ultimate source that decides wrong from right. God.

Medically, same-sex attraction is a mental disorder.

You are a complete, total, 100% wrong.

 

[Terri4Trump]

ME: There are so many things going wrong with Democrats that its hard to keep track. Here is yet another one, one that you will not hear discussed much. You may not know this, but a lot of CEOs hire Frank Luntz to come out and tell ’em about marketing strategy and advertising strategy and stuff. Frank goes out there and talks to ’em, and he was reporting to Laura Ingraham’s question on what he’s been telling these CEOs about what he’s been hearing from the Democrats during this campaign:

Frank Luntz on the top moments from the Democratic debates
Pollster Frank Luntz breaks down the most noteworthy moments from both nights of the second Democratic presidential debate

 

[XponentialChaos]

I tried and I still can't understand how someone can be that confident he will win considering that his side was beat by 3 million votes in 2016 and 10 million votes in 2018.

Definitely has a chance. But I sure as hell wouldn't be celebrating prematurely with those kinds of numbers.

 

[rightwinger]

I found something pretty interesting when I looked at some numbers for the last few midterm elections. To put things in perspective, I went back several election cycles. Here's a timeline with their results:


2000 Presidential Election: Bush is elected president.
(55.3% voter turnout rate)


2002 Midterm Election: Republicans in the House get 37.3 million votes.
Democrats in the House get 33.8 million votes.
(40.5% voter turnout rate)


2004 Presidential Election: Bush wins second term.
(60.7% voter turnout rate)


2006 Midterm Election: Republicans in the House get 35.9 million votes. (-4% more votes compared to the last midterm)
Democrats in the House get 42.3 million votes. (25% more votes compared to the last midterm)
(41.3% voter turnout rate)


2008 Presidential Election: Obama is elected president.
(62.2% voter turnout rate)


2010 Midterm Election: Republicans in the House get 44.8 million votes. (25% more votes compared to the last midterm)
Democrats in the House get 39 million votes. (-8% more votes compared to the last midterm)
(41.8% voter turnout rate)


2012 Presidential Election: Obama wins second term.
(58.6% voter turnout rate)


2014 Midterm Election: Republicans in the House get 40.1 million votes. (-11% more votes compared to the last midterm)
Democrats in the House get 35.6 million votes. (-9% more votes compared to the last midterm)
(36.7% voter turnout rate)


2016 Presidential Election: Trump is elected president.
(60.1% voter turnout rate)


2018 Midterm Election: Republicans in the House get 50.9 million votes (27% more votes compared to the last midterm)
Democrats in the House get 60.6 million votes. (70% more votes compared to the last midterm)
(50.3% voter turnout rate)


============================================================================================

Look at the percentage increase by both parties in the last midterm election. Look at the voter turnout in 2018 compared to all of the other midterm elections. I think it's fair to say that Trump energized both sides to show up. The numbers on the Democrat side are staggering at a 70% increase. Again, that's in a midterm election.

What do you make of these numbers?

Simply put, I think Trump has gotten the attention of a lot of eligible voters who were otherwise uninterested in politics in the past. And a lot of these previously uninterested voters absolutely hate Trump. I think Republicans woke up a sleeping giant.

Voter Turnout Data - United States Elections Project

In 2018, Dems got 10 million more votes than Republicans
Compared to the 3 million more votes Hillary got than Trump

Republicans concede they will lose a popular election in 2020 just like they did in 2016.
Can they survive a loss of the popular vote of 5 to 10 million?

 

[rightwinger]

I tried and I still can't understand how someone can be that confident he will win considering that his side was beat by 3 million votes in 2016 and 10 million votes in 2018.

Definitely has a chance. But I sure as hell wouldn't be celebrating prematurely with those kinds of numbers.

Trump won in 2016 trying to fill an inside straight while Hillary stood pat with three Aces

Is that a good re-election strategy for 2020???

 

[XponentialChaos]

I tried and I still can't understand how someone can be that confident he will win considering that his side was beat by 3 million votes in 2016 and 10 million votes in 2018.

Definitely has a chance. But I sure as hell wouldn't be celebrating prematurely with those kinds of numbers.

Trump won in 2016 trying to fill an inside straight while Hillary stood pat with three Aces

Is that a good re-election strategy for 2020???

Exactly. While still definitely possible, I definitely wouldn't be celebrating early with those odds.

The strategy of riling people up was a great way to energize his base. Unfortunately for him, he just energized the other side way more. The numbers show this.

 

[rightwinger]

I tried and I still can't understand how someone can be that confident he will win considering that his side was beat by 3 million votes in 2016 and 10 million votes in 2018.

Definitely has a chance. But I sure as hell wouldn't be celebrating prematurely with those kinds of numbers.

Trump won in 2016 trying to fill an inside straight while Hillary stood pat with three Aces

Is that a good re-election strategy for 2020???

Exactly. While still definitely possible, I definitely wouldn't be celebrating early with those odds.

The strategy of riling people up was a great way to energize his base. Unfortunately for him, he just energized the other side way more. The numbers show this.

The polls were wrong in 2016
However, running on a strategy that polls always get it wrong is not a winning strategy

 

[XponentialChaos]

What does a 10 million vote difference look like in the electoral college?

Let's take a look at the electoral college and how the 2018 midterm results would have looked on the electoral college map. Obviously this is hypothetical, but just to get a frame of reference of the direction in which the country is going, at least for now.

If the 2018 midterm results happened in a presidential election (and that's a big if), then we would see the following states flip:

Iowa (6)
This state went for Trump in 2016 by 10 points. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung to the Democrats by 4 points.

Michigan (16)
This state was a big surprise in 2016. It barely went to Trump by less than a quarter of a point. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung back to the Democrats by 8 points.

Pennsylvania (20)
This battleground state went to the Trump in 2016 by less than 1 point. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung back to the Democrats by 10 points.

Wisconsin (10)
This was another big surprise in 2016. It went to Trump by less than 1 point. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung back to the Democrats by 8 points.

Maine (1)
This state breaks their electoral college votes up. Maine's second district is worth 1 point. In 2016, Trump won this vote by 10 points. In the 2018 midterm election, it went to the Democrats by 1 point.

That's a total of 53 EC votes.

In 2016, Trump won 300 to 238. If we remove the 53 from Trump and add it to the Democrat, we would have...

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 291

Obviously, there are a lot of assumptions being made here. For one, we don't know what the voter turnout will look like in 2020. However, just think of this as a snapshot of where the country is right now and the direction it might be going.

To me, it looks like Democrats have regained control of the states they lost last election. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (46 EC votes) appear to be firmly in Democrat control with margins of at least 8 points. Iowa and Maine's 2nd district are tenuous at best.

However, just these 46 EC votes would still be enough to change the outcome.

Republicans: 254
Democrats: 284

The key question may be: can the Republicans really hang on to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? The outcome of the election depends on it. The other states, even the "battle ground" states didn't show any signs of changing from the midterm election, but these three states did. Trump barely won each of these states by less than 1 point. Signs are definitely pointing to them being firmly in Democrat control once again.

 

[Terri4Trump]

I tried and I still can't understand how someone can be that confident he will win considering that his side was beat by 3 million votes in 2016 and 10 million votes in 2018...........

2 things: The insanity of the Dems positions on issues, and trust that enough Americans recognize that insanity and that they also notice Trumps economic and jobs successes

 

[rightwinger]

What does a 10 million vote difference look like in the electoral college?

Let's take a look at the electoral college and how the 2018 midterm results would have looked on the electoral college map. Obviously this is hypothetical, but just to get a frame of reference of the direction in which the country is going, at least for now.

If the 2018 midterm results happened in a presidential election (and that's a big if), then we would see the following states flip:

Iowa (6)
This state went for Trump in 2016 by 10 points. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung to the Democrats by 4 points.

Michigan (16)
This state was a big surprise in 2016. It barely went to Trump by less than a quarter of a point. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung back to the Democrats by 8 points.

Pennsylvania (20)
This battleground state went to the Trump in 2016 by less than 1 point. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung back to the Democrats by 10 points.

Wisconsin (10)
This was another big surprise in 2016. It went to Trump by less than 1 point. In the 2018 midterm election, it swung back to the Democrats by 8 points.

Maine (1)
This state breaks their electoral college votes up. Maine's second district is worth 1 point. In 2016, Trump won this vote by 10 points. In the 2018 midterm election, it went to the Democrats by 1 point.

That's a total of 53 EC votes.

In 2016, Trump won 300 to 238. If we remove the 53 from Trump and add it to the Democrat, we would have...

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 291

Obviously, there are a lot of assumptions being made here. For one, we don't know what the voter turnout will look like in 2020. However, just think of this as a snapshot of where the country is right now and the direction it might be going.

To me, it looks like Democrats have regained control of the states they lost last election. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (46 EC votes) appear to be firmly in Democrat control with margins of at least 8 points. Iowa and Maine's 2nd district are tenuous at best.

However, just these 46 EC votes would still be enough to change the outcome.

Republicans: 254
Democrats: 284

The key question may be: can the Republicans really hang on to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? The outcome of the election depends on it. The other states, even the "battle ground" states didn't show any signs of changing from the midterm election, but these three states did. Trump barely won each of these states by less than 1 point. Signs are definitely pointing to them being firmly in Democrat control once again.

Good analysis

But I think states like Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia may be in play
Also, you never know where Florida will go

 

[rightwinger]

I tried and I still can't understand how someone can be that confident he will win considering that his side was beat by 3 million votes in 2016 and 10 million votes in 2018...........

2 things: The insanity of the Dems positions on issues, and trust that enough Americans recognize that insanity and that they also notice Trumps economic and jobs successes

Dems want to protect Healthcare
Dems want someone who will stand up for the environment
Dems will point to the global instability under Trump
Dems will push an Education platform
Dems will rail against the unnecessary trade war
Dems will highlight human rights abuses at the border
Dems will put up a candidate who is not batshit crazy

A winning platform