Russia is winning

DarthTrader

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2022
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If debating, I'd take the "Russia is winning" side of the debate in a who is winning a new cold war, Russia or the US; type of question.

I want to try and condense a lot of concepts to explain why and then discuss them.

  • Russia's bonds are trading at a premium which means they are in demand
    • I am still studying this one; I trade commodities, oil, uranium and gold mostly. But; I understand the basics of US central banking, IRRPs, repo, reverse repo, asset-for-asset swaps, credit swaps, etc. If I've read the basics about Russia's bond par values, Russia's bonds are trading at a very extreme premium, meaning very high demand.
  • Russia demands EU pay in Rubles
  • EU can't pay in Rubles because EU doesn't have Rubles.
    • This is important to the Russian bond situation - Russia WILL without a doubt demand that EU pays in Rubles. The result is that EU will have to convert asset-to-asset swaps or credit swaps for Russian bonds at an EXTREME PREMIUM. Russia will make 20%+ on this investment. An amazing return on investment.
    • Most likely the holders of these bonds are Russia Central Bank and People's Bank of China and etc.
  • Militarily Russia is winning
    • Just looking at a map and anyone can tell that Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv (except for one artery), Mariupol and the entire Joint Operations Center, and Kiev (except for one artery) is entirely surrounded.
    • Russia just sits back and artillery barrages anything they want, they choose the tempo of the engagement, they control all food and all weapons shipments to the conflict zone. It's irrelevant if weapons make it to the west, there is no way to get those weapons to the bulk of the Ukrainian Army.
    • I argue against Michael Kofman who states that Russia's invasion was "bizarre".
      • Instead I think Russia's invasion was brilliantly cheap.
      • Example: Ukraine claims destroying 10-30 Ka-2# type helicopters. Russia has 700+. Only 5 more years and Ukraine should destroy them all...
      • Russia sent in soviet junk that has a current cost of about $10,000 per T72-B3. Russian soldiers are told to abandon old equipment on disadvantageous contact with the UA military.
      • Most all of Russian vehicle losses are old Soviet junk that is worthless.
    • Russia's tactics have been one of shrewd capitalist business sense.
  • Russia's war fighting would be exactly how Britain won its empire from 1700s-1900s. Very shrewd business sense. Waste not a penny, spill the blood, lives are cheap. The best Russian equipment has been preserved. Damage is to older-type soviet equipment.
    • I'm not arguing that Russia has been executing a flawless war. Rather it's just executing a much smarter war than the US which left some $billions of dollars of ammunition and weapons for the Taliban when it left unceremoniously in defeat.
  • Economically Russia holds all the cards
    • Predominantly in food and fertilizer. Russia will have a long list of "allies" who beg for food or face destruction or revolution. US is not in a position to offset this advantage.
    • EV vehicles use Russian Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt, etc. The Automotive Industry uses resources sourced in Russia, palladium/platinum etc.
    • Steel - The best Nickel (stainless steel) in the world comes from Russia.
    • Uranium - Russia does about 40% of the processing of global Uranium.
    • Oil - Obviously a powerhouse here. EU can't even spare a drop of Russian oil.
    • Gas - Same as oil. EU imports 40% of its gas from Russia. US pledges to offset a meager 1% of Russian Gas imports.
    • 39% of Titanium used in Global Aircraft production comes from Russia.
  • Ukraine
    • Russia costs of war including sanctions (if they even are applied, currently they are ineffective); would be approximately $186B USD.
    • Ukraine if conquered = $286B USD in revenues for Russia.
    • Ukraine is sitting on $7.2 Trillion USD in Gold, Uranium, hydrocarbons, farm lands and coal plus some other minerals.
  • Russia clearly - if wins militarily - wins a lot of treasure in invading Ukraine.
END GAME

I think Putin expected a set of responses from the US/West in the event of Ukraine invasion. I think he was forced by blundering statements about UA joining NATO but that also could have been just his excuse rather than giving benefit of the doubt. Because, Russia intends to pry the reserve currency away from the US Dollar into a basket of currencies. Depriving the US the ability to denominate its debt in its own currency, forcing the US to have a debt crisis and diminished ability to maintain deficit spending.

US EMPIRE - Basically the US uses the Dollar to draw capital from the world, it's happening now in the "milkshake effect" with rate hikes (look it up). Capital is draining from Emerging economies into the US Dollar. This allows the US to make the world pay for its deficit spending to maintain its military advantage. Classic Empire.

Russia seeks to break that and it counted on the US weaponizing SWIFT and splitting the EU from NATO/US objectives and soon it will smash the EU on an anvil with ruble payments for oil/gas.

Russia is playing a long game and it looks like the US made some significant blunders.

Only military defeat in Ukraine could change this course now.
 
Only military defeat in Ukraine could change this course now.
What is military defeat for Russia. You're assuming that Russia intends to take the entire Ukraine and that's already proving wrong.

I think Russia is going to attain their goals with the security of a peace deal on Crimea and the Donbass region that meets their demands.

Russia isn't going to accept less than that. That's almost certainly the only way to avoid nuclear war.
 
If debating, I'd take the "Russia is winning" side of the debate in a who is winning a new cold war, Russia or the US; type of question.

I want to try and condense a lot of concepts to explain why and then discuss them.

  • Russia's bonds are trading at a premium which means they are in demand
    • I am still studying this one; I trade commodities, oil, uranium and gold mostly. But; I understand the basics of US central banking, IRRPs, repo, reverse repo, asset-for-asset swaps, credit swaps, etc. If I've read the basics about Russia's bond par values, Russia's bonds are trading at a very extreme premium, meaning very high demand.
  • Russia demands EU pay in Rubles
  • EU can't pay in Rubles because EU doesn't have Rubles.
    • This is important to the Russian bond situation - Russia WILL without a doubt demand that EU pays in Rubles. The result is that EU will have to convert asset-to-asset swaps or credit swaps for Russian bonds at an EXTREME PREMIUM. Russia will make 20%+ on this investment. An amazing return on investment.
    • Most likely the holders of these bonds are Russia Central Bank and People's Bank of China and etc.
  • Militarily Russia is winning
    • Just looking at a map and anyone can tell that Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv (except for one artery), Mariupol and the entire Joint Operations Center, and Kiev (except for one artery) is entirely surrounded.
    • Russia just sits back and artillery barrages anything they want, they choose the tempo of the engagement, they control all food and all weapons shipments to the conflict zone. It's irrelevant if weapons make it to the west, there is no way to get those weapons to the bulk of the Ukrainian Army.
    • I argue against Michael Kofman who states that Russia's invasion was "bizarre".
      • Instead I think Russia's invasion was brilliantly cheap.
      • Example: Ukraine claims destroying 10-30 Ka-2# type helicopters. Russia has 700+. Only 5 more years and Ukraine should destroy them all...
      • Russia sent in soviet junk that has a current cost of about $10,000 per T72-B3. Russian soldiers are told to abandon old equipment on disadvantageous contact with the UA military.
      • Most all of Russian vehicle losses are old Soviet junk that is worthless.
    • Russia's tactics have been one of shrewd capitalist business sense.
  • Russia's war fighting would be exactly how Britain won its empire from 1700s-1900s. Very shrewd business sense. Waste not a penny, spill the blood, lives are cheap. The best Russian equipment has been preserved. Damage is to older-type soviet equipment.
    • I'm not arguing that Russia has been executing a flawless war. Rather it's just executing a much smarter war than the US which left some $billions of dollars of ammunition and weapons for the Taliban when it left unceremoniously in defeat.
  • Economically Russia holds all the cards
    • Predominantly in food and fertilizer. Russia will have a long list of "allies" who beg for food or face destruction or revolution. US is not in a position to offset this advantage.
    • EV vehicles use Russian Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt, etc. The Automotive Industry uses resources sourced in Russia, palladium/platinum etc.
    • Steel - The best Nickel (stainless steel) in the world comes from Russia.
    • Uranium - Russia does about 40% of the processing of global Uranium.
    • Oil - Obviously a powerhouse here. EU can't even spare a drop of Russian oil.
    • Gas - Same as oil. EU imports 40% of its gas from Russia. US pledges to offset a meager 1% of Russian Gas imports.
    • 39% of Titanium used in Global Aircraft production comes from Russia.
  • Ukraine
    • Russia costs of war including sanctions (if they even are applied, currently they are ineffective); would be approximately $186B USD.
    • Ukraine if conquered = $286B USD in revenues for Russia.
    • Ukraine is sitting on $7.2 Trillion USD in Gold, Uranium, hydrocarbons, farm lands and coal plus some other minerals.
  • Russia clearly - if wins militarily - wins a lot of treasure in invading Ukraine.
END GAME

I think Putin expected a set of responses from the US/West in the event of Ukraine invasion. I think he was forced by blundering statements about UA joining NATO but that also could have been just his excuse rather than giving benefit of the doubt. Because, Russia intends to pry the reserve currency away from the US Dollar into a basket of currencies. Depriving the US the ability to denominate its debt in its own currency, forcing the US to have a debt crisis and diminished ability to maintain deficit spending.

US EMPIRE - Basically the US uses the Dollar to draw capital from the world, it's happening now in the "milkshake effect" with rate hikes (look it up). Capital is draining from Emerging economies into the US Dollar. This allows the US to make the world pay for its deficit spending to maintain its military advantage. Classic Empire.

Russia seeks to break that and it counted on the US weaponizing SWIFT and splitting the EU from NATO/US objectives and soon it will smash the EU on an anvil with ruble payments for oil/gas.

Russia is playing a long game and it looks like the US made some significant blunders.

Only military defeat in Ukraine could change this course now.
Who is winning the cold war?

China

Putin is dependent upon them and would not be doing what they are doing without the support of Xi who is loving every minute of it.
 
Russian rockets, what as flop.

RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE

Russian missile kills 30 civilians at Ukraine train station
Authorities said the strike wounded more than 100 people.
Russian missile kills 30 civilians at Ukraine train station

1649466727885.png
Kramatorsk station attack: What we know so far

The above “Russian” rockets look rather primitive.

This is what an American rocket looks like—
1649466777335.png

U.S. Navy, Air Force To Conduct Joint Research Effort on Solid-rocket Motors - SpaceNews

Anti-ship missile - Wikipedia

Just between you and me, the above looks like a “rocket”

going somewhere

The Russian rockets

looks like da “duds”

Rusky duds at that :)-
 
All the American people are seeing is our lying media parroting the Ukrainian fake news propaganda that a bumbling Russian army is loosing the war.
When the truth is the Russian army is steadily advancing on every front and the Ukraine insurgents are slowly being devastated.
I've known your posts for a long time. We do have different points of view but I never suspected that you would be a true blue commie;
Until now
N0 offense intended or implied,
you commie----you
:)-
 
If debating, I'd take the "Russia is winning" side of the debate in a who is winning a new cold war, Russia or the US; type of question.

I want to try and condense a lot of concepts to explain why and then discuss them.

  • Russia's bonds are trading at a premium which means they are in demand
    • I am still studying this one; I trade commodities, oil, uranium and gold mostly. But; I understand the basics of US central banking, IRRPs, repo, reverse repo, asset-for-asset swaps, credit swaps, etc. If I've read the basics about Russia's bond par values, Russia's bonds are trading at a very extreme premium, meaning very high demand.
  • Russia demands EU pay in Rubles
  • EU can't pay in Rubles because EU doesn't have Rubles.
    • This is important to the Russian bond situation - Russia WILL without a doubt demand that EU pays in Rubles. The result is that EU will have to convert asset-to-asset swaps or credit swaps for Russian bonds at an EXTREME PREMIUM. Russia will make 20%+ on this investment. An amazing return on investment.
    • Most likely the holders of these bonds are Russia Central Bank and People's Bank of China and etc.
  • Militarily Russia is winning
    • Just looking at a map and anyone can tell that Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv (except for one artery), Mariupol and the entire Joint Operations Center, and Kiev (except for one artery) is entirely surrounded.
    • Russia just sits back and artillery barrages anything they want, they choose the tempo of the engagement, they control all food and all weapons shipments to the conflict zone. It's irrelevant if weapons make it to the west, there is no way to get those weapons to the bulk of the Ukrainian Army.
    • I argue against Michael Kofman who states that Russia's invasion was "bizarre".
      • Instead I think Russia's invasion was brilliantly cheap.
      • Example: Ukraine claims destroying 10-30 Ka-2# type helicopters. Russia has 700+. Only 5 more years and Ukraine should destroy them all...
      • Russia sent in soviet junk that has a current cost of about $10,000 per T72-B3. Russian soldiers are told to abandon old equipment on disadvantageous contact with the UA military.
      • Most all of Russian vehicle losses are old Soviet junk that is worthless.
    • Russia's tactics have been one of shrewd capitalist business sense.
  • Russia's war fighting would be exactly how Britain won its empire from 1700s-1900s. Very shrewd business sense. Waste not a penny, spill the blood, lives are cheap. The best Russian equipment has been preserved. Damage is to older-type soviet equipment.
    • I'm not arguing that Russia has been executing a flawless war. Rather it's just executing a much smarter war than the US which left some $billions of dollars of ammunition and weapons for the Taliban when it left unceremoniously in defeat.
  • Economically Russia holds all the cards
    • Predominantly in food and fertilizer. Russia will have a long list of "allies" who beg for food or face destruction or revolution. US is not in a position to offset this advantage.
    • EV vehicles use Russian Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt, etc. The Automotive Industry uses resources sourced in Russia, palladium/platinum etc.
    • Steel - The best Nickel (stainless steel) in the world comes from Russia.
    • Uranium - Russia does about 40% of the processing of global Uranium.
    • Oil - Obviously a powerhouse here. EU can't even spare a drop of Russian oil.
    • Gas - Same as oil. EU imports 40% of its gas from Russia. US pledges to offset a meager 1% of Russian Gas imports.
    • 39% of Titanium used in Global Aircraft production comes from Russia.
  • Ukraine
    • Russia costs of war including sanctions (if they even are applied, currently they are ineffective); would be approximately $186B USD.
    • Ukraine if conquered = $286B USD in revenues for Russia.
    • Ukraine is sitting on $7.2 Trillion USD in Gold, Uranium, hydrocarbons, farm lands and coal plus some other minerals.
  • Russia clearly - if wins militarily - wins a lot of treasure in invading Ukraine.
END GAME

I think Putin expected a set of responses from the US/West in the event of Ukraine invasion. I think he was forced by blundering statements about UA joining NATO but that also could have been just his excuse rather than giving benefit of the doubt. Because, Russia intends to pry the reserve currency away from the US Dollar into a basket of currencies. Depriving the US the ability to denominate its debt in its own currency, forcing the US to have a debt crisis and diminished ability to maintain deficit spending.

US EMPIRE - Basically the US uses the Dollar to draw capital from the world, it's happening now in the "milkshake effect" with rate hikes (look it up). Capital is draining from Emerging economies into the US Dollar. This allows the US to make the world pay for its deficit spending to maintain its military advantage. Classic Empire.

Russia seeks to break that and it counted on the US weaponizing SWIFT and splitting the EU from NATO/US objectives and soon it will smash the EU on an anvil with ruble payments for oil/gas.

Russia is playing a long game and it looks like the US made some significant blunders.

Only military defeat in Ukraine could change this course now.
Said like a true republican communist sympathiser.
But well plagiarised all the same.
 
Said like a non-thinking British minion of the New World Order. Since when does not wanting to get pulled into a war with Russia make you a "communist sympathizer"? I assume you have your vintage helmet on and ready to go to war with Putin, right Colin?
The greatest country on earth, full to the brim with
Gun toting bloodthirsty rambos frightened to go to war???? It didn't stop you in Vietnam. Home of the brave ay?
 
The greatest country on earth, full to the brim with
Gun toting bloodthirsty rambos frightened to go to war???? It didn't stop you in Vietnam. Home of the brave ay?
I had no say about the US going into VietNam, that's on the Democrat President LBJ. So do want British soldiers shipped to Ukraine? Or do you just want Americans to do the dirty work?
 
I had no say about the US going into VietNam, that's on the Democrat President LBJ. So do want British soldiers shipped to Ukraine? Or do you just want Americans to do the dirty work?
But you never objected. Those who did got gunned down in Ohio. What a country where you can't demonstrate without getting shot. Does that make you proud you arrogant dickhead?

I couldn't care less what the British do and your army is only goid for the dirty work. Lives don't matter to you. After killing 55000 marines and 250000 wounded in Vietnam FOR NO REASON, why should it matter.
 
But you never objected. Those who did got gunned down in Ohio. What a country where you can't demonstrate without getting shot. Does that make you proud you arrogant dickhead?

I couldn't care less what the British do and your army is only goid for the dirty work. Lives don't matter to you. After killing 55000 marines and 250000 wounded in Vietnam FOR NO REASON, why should it matter.
The “students” at Ohio State had been violently rioting for several days. It wasn’t a peaceful demonstration. The unfortunate thing was that the people shot were hit by wild rounds and were innocent bystanders.
 
The “students” at Ohio State had been violently rioting for several days. It wasn’t a peaceful demonstration. The unfortunate thing was that the people shot were hit by wild rounds and were innocent bystanders.
Dont give me your mealy mouthed justifications.
Your government killed its own people for exercising their freedom.
Piss off divkhead.
 
All the American people are seeing is our lying media parroting the Ukrainian fake news propaganda that a bumbling Russian army is loosing the war.
When the truth is the Russian army is steadily advancing on every front and the Ukraine insurgents are slowly being devastated.

The American people had propaganda training between 2016 and 2020.
 

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