Russia runs out of armament stockpiles – Ukraine's Secretary of National Security

[Bleipriester]

Yeah, the territories that will be controlled by Ukrainian government.

Their bargaining hands gets weaker every day. I wonder if Kiev is allowed to make peace.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Their bargaining hands gets weaker every day. I wonder if Kiev is allowed to make peace.

Zelensky has been clear, negotiations can only begin after Russia leaves Ukraine.

 

[Bleipriester]

Zelensky has been clear, negotiations can only begin after Russia leaves Ukraine.

If Russia leaves Ukraine, or the new Russian republics, what will be left to negotiate? It means: no negotiations. If it wasn´t ordinary Ukrainian citizens that they grab from the streets and throw into battle after a two weeks crash course but Zelensky and his gang of state looters that had to go to Bakhmut, I think negotiations were on the table quickly.
By the way, Zelensky´s Crimean mansion has been confiscated and will be donated to families in need.

 

[ESay]

Their bargaining hands gets weaker every day. I wonder if Kiev is allowed to make peace.

Kiev? There isn't too much that depends on Kiev.

 

[luiza]

Zelensky has been clear, negotiations can only begin after Russia leaves Ukraine.

A zero piece of garbage from Yesterday Man.

US find him embarrassing and dear Uncle P doesn''t deal with vermin .
End Of .

 

[toomuchtime_]

If Russia leaves Ukraine, or the new Russian republics, what will be left to negotiate? It means: no negotiations. If it wasn´t ordinary Ukrainian citizens that they grab from the streets and throw into battle after a two weeks crash course but Zelensky and his gang of state looters that had to go to Bakhmut, I think negotiations were on the table quickly.
By the way, Zelensky´s Crimean mansion has been confiscated and will be donated to families in need.

Once Russia retreats behind its internationally recognized borders, it will probably want to negotiate security guarantees for Ukraine, the demand for war crimes trials, reparations and the possibility for economic relief. Russia's economy is contracting and will continue to contract unless it can negotiate its way back into the good graces of the EU and USA. This will require serious sacrifices by Russia.

 

[there4eyeM]

Negotiations start by establishing clear dates for evacuation of various invading units. They would certainly soon turn on Russia's compensation to the Ukraine and the world.

 

[Bleipriester]

Kiev? There isn't too much that depends on Kiev.

Which is the actual problem.

 

[Bleipriester]

Once Russia retreats behind its internationally recognized borders, it will probably want to negotiate security guarantees for Ukraine, the demand for war crimes trials, reparations and the possibility for economic relief. Russia's economy is contracting and will continue to contract unless it can negotiate its way back into the good graces of the EU and USA. This will require serious sacrifices by Russia.

Russia won´t retreat. Russia´s economy contracted a bit but not by 30 % like Ukraine´s. Ukraine´s unemployment rate is 40 %, Russia´s is 3,6 percent, the lowest ever recorded.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Russia won´t retreat. Russia´s economy contracted a bit but not by 30 % like Ukraine´s. Ukraine´s unemployment rate is 40 %, Russia´s is 3,6 percent, the lowest ever recorded.

The reports from the Russian Ministry of Finance tell a different story. It shows Russia's revenues are down by nearly 50% indicating the economy will contract by much more if these monthly statements continue to be so dismal.

 

[Bleipriester]

The reports from the Russian Ministry of Finance tell a different story. It shows Russia's revenues are down by nearly 50% indicating the economy will contract by much more if these monthly statements continue to be so dismal.

You have been misinformed by Fake News. Revenues are up in February according to the Finance Ministry.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[toomuchtime_]

You have been misinformed by Fake News. Revenues are up in February according to the Finance Ministry.

MSN

www.msn.com

Budget income from oil and gas sales reached 521.2 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) last month, compared to 425.5 billion in January and 971.7 billion rubles in February 2022.

In other words, Feb revenues, 521.2 billion, rose from Jan revenues, 425.5 billion, but were way down from Feb 2022, 971.7 billion.

 

[Bleipriester]

Budget income from oil and gas sales reached 521.2 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) last month, compared to 425.5 billion in January and 971.7 billion rubles in February 2022.

In other words, Feb revenues, 521.2 billion, rose from Jan revenues, 425.5 billion, but were way down from Feb 2022, 971.7 billion.

Now, it is up.

Btw, Germany´s economy also contracted but there are no doomsday news around.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Now, it is up.

Btw, Germany´s economy also contracted but there are no doomsday news around.

Up from last month but down from Feb of last year. If revenues continue to be that much lower than last year, we could see a significant contraction, and with deficits that high, Russia will have to deplete it sovereign wealth fund, perhaps in as little time as six months. I've seen lots of articles about this, but none of them have suggested what Russia might do to change this.

 

[Bleipriester]

Up from last month but down from Feb of last year. If revenues continue to be that much lower than last year, we could see a significant contraction, and with deficits that high, Russia will have to deplete it sovereign wealth fund, perhaps in as little time as six months. I've seen lots of articles about this, but none of them have suggested what Russia might do to change this.

I think the sales will go up again. Most countries need oil more than EU. They won´t apply their price cap because they won´t get any oil. By February 1, countries applying EU price cap will get no oil for five months.
Second, I wonder why you make such a big thing of that. We all know that EU-RU gas and oil trade is almost 100 % down. Now, it can only go up. EU is buying elsewhere, thus creating gaps that will be filled with Russian stuff.

 

[Orangecat]

How does some Ukrainian bureaucrat know Russia’s military supply levels? Doesn’t anyone question obvious propaganda these days?

 

[para bellum]

How does some Ukrainian bureaucrat know Russia’s military supply levels? Doesn’t anyone question obvious propaganda these days?

No one knows how much stockpiles of Soviet era munitions were there. All you can do is look at the consumption rates.

Newer weapons like the Iskander/Khinzal and Calibr and KH-101 are easier to count because they are not produced in large numbers even before the war, and they haven't been around that long.

I saw recently a stat- Russia fired something like 2100 missiles at Ukraine in the first 68 days of the invasion. The most recent large-scale missile strike was 84 or something like that? And the one before that was around the beginning of February or end of January?

Also, the mix is a lot of old, and a few of the new, plus a few Iranian drones. They continue to use KH-22 and S-300 for ground targets. So they seem to be using the newer weapons at roughly the rate they can produce them (IIRC Khinzal is very low rate, like 4/month), and using old stocks to fill out the quantity. They need to saturate the Ukraine air defenses, and the combination of high and low, fast and slow, makes it much harder to deal with.

When we are looking at newer systems- be it tanks, planes, missiles, submarines, whatever- the numbers aren't necessarily perfect, but they aren't way off either.

Artillery ammunition, 122 and 152mm, and tank shells and Grad rockets, who knows. Last summer they said they were using 50,000-60,000/day, Zelensky said Ukraine was using 110,000/month and Russia was using 4x that so that would be about 15,000/day.

There is some anectodal stuff. The AFU captured ammunition depots in the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives and we got a good look at that. There were pictures posted on Russian Telegram of old and rusty ammunition, but that shouldn't be taken as representative even if it's true.

The Iranian ammunition that I have seen (just a few examples) has been new production- 2022 lot dates.

FWIW

 

[toomuchtime_]

I think the sales will go up again. Most countries need oil more than EU. They won´t apply their price cap because they won´t get any oil. By February 1, countries applying EU price cap will get no oil for five months.
Second, I wonder why you make such a big thing of that. We all know that EU-RU gas and oil trade is almost 100 % down. Now, it can only go up. EU is buying elsewhere, thus creating gaps that will be filled with Russian stuff.

No one needs Russian oil. Global demand is down, and the only reason anyone is buying Russian oil is because Russi is selling it at a 30% discount. Even China and India are buying Russian oil well below the price caps and with an additional 30% discount.

Russian banks have been expelled from global financial markets, so if a country wants to buy Russian oil, it must either barter for it or deal in local currencies, which limits what Russia can do with the payments it receives. So, China pays for the oil it buys from Russia with Chinese Renminbi (RMB), which can only be used for transactions within China. India never bought much Russian oil before the war, but now with the discount, it is too cheap to pass up, but much of the oil India buys is refined and sold to the US or other western countries, so if the ban on Russia oil is extended to by products of that oil, the Indian market will dry up.

In addition, no insurers outside of Russia will insure ships carrying Russian oil, so if Russia wants to sell oil to states that don't have pipelines to Russia, it will have to invest in a large number of tankers of its own. Whatever moves Russia makes to try to increase sales, the West will try to obstruct with new sanctions to discourage buyers. Biden is even authorizing new drilling sites in Alaska and the Gulf to make sure the world has a plentiful supply of oil outside of Russia.

Of course you can always dream Russia will be able to overcome all these obstacles. Some people say everyone should have a dream.

 

[Bleipriester]

No one needs Russian oil. Global demand is down, and the only reason anyone is buying Russian oil is because Russi is selling it at a 30% discount. Even China and India are buying Russian oil well below the price caps and with an additional 30% discount.

Russian banks have been expelled from global financial markets, so if a country wants to buy Russian oil, it must either barter for it or deal in local currencies, which limits what Russia can do with the payments it receives. So, China pays for the oil it buys from Russia with Chinese Renminbi (RMB), which can only be used for transactions within China. India never bought much Russian oil before the war, but now with the discount, it is too cheap to pass up, but much of the oil India buys is refined and sold to the US or other western countries, so if the ban on Russia oil is extended to by products of that oil, the Indian market will dry up.

In addition, no insurers outside of Russia will insure ships carrying Russian oil, so if Russia wants to sell oil to states that don't have pipelines to Russia, it will have to invest in a large number of tankers of its own. Whatever moves Russia makes to try to increase sales, the West will try to obstruct with new sanctions to discourage buyers. Biden is even authorizing new drilling sites in Alaska and the Gulf to make sure the world has a plentiful supply of oil outside of Russia.

Of course you can always dream Russia will be able to overcome all these obstacles. Some people say everyone should have a dream.

I thought you realized that the revenues are up now. Apparently you didn´t
You also created a bogus nonsense thread claiming Russia is abducting children. Effectively you demand that the children stay in destroyed cities, otherwise it is kidnapping. You completely lost grip on reality, don´t even think before you post your next moronic bullcrap.

 

[toomuchtime_]

I thought you realized that the revenues are up now. Apparently you didn´t
You also created a bogus nonsense thread claiming Russia is abducting children. Effectively you demand that the children stay in destroyed cities, otherwise it is kidnapping. You completely lost grip on reality, don´t even think before you post your next moronic bullcrap.

I understand this is a matter of faith for you, not a matter of judgement.