This is the first poll taken since the Palin endorsement. If accurate, a stunning shift in voter support from Independents and Republicans in support of Hoffman...
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Hoffman Surges Into Lead in NY-23
New CFG Poll shows Hoffman 31.3%, Owens 27.0%, Scozzafava 19.7%
Washington - A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.
This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.
"Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava's support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week," concluded Basswood Research's pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.
The Club For Growth - http://www.clubforgrowth.org
It's a legit poll - conducted for CfG by Basswood. These are conservative pollsters - but for now, this is the only poll after the Palin endorsement, and it refects a definite shift in voter trending leading up to the election.
Quite remarkable actually...
Club for Growth claims Buehrer leads in polling
Latta doubts accuracy
POSTED: October 31, 2007
The Club for Growth claims State Sen. Steven Buehrer has a lead over State Rep. Bob Latta in head to head polling.
The names of other Republican candidates did not appear in the polling results released this week.
The Club for Growth is a Washington, D.C.-based political action committee that has thrown its support behind Buehrer in the Republican special primary election
The polls were conducted by Basswood Research between Sept. 19 and Oct. 28.
Latta is now CONGRESSMAN Latta
That particular 2007 poll - Latte vs Buehrer - a primary race, showed the largest group of voters were still "undecided", 41% to be exact. (common in a primary) That was a tough primary too - with Republican Latte defeating Buehrer 44-40. So it appears the results were well within the margin of error, and thus, an example of sound polling.
That being said, it's not entirely applicable to the Hoffman poll numbers of 2009, which show only far fewer voters as undecided.
There has been a clear shift by Independents and Republicans in favor of Hoffman - not enough to state he will win, but certainly enough to state he has a definite chance, something that appeared unlikely just a couple weeks ago.
I appreciate you attempting a bit of research though - that is an improvement over many of your prior attempts. Keep it up!!
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Posted on Tuesday, October 30, 2007 6:54:12 AM by jebanks
Little more than a week after he was reported to be lagging behind in the polls, State Sen. Steve Buehrer is reporting a lead in the race for the U.S. House of Representatives.
Club for Growth, a Washington D.C-based political action committee announced the results of a poll yesterday. It shows Buehrer with a three-percentage point lead over his closest rival in the Republican primary for the 5th district congressional special election, State Rep. Bob Latta.
The poll, conducted by the Washington-based Basswood Research, surveyed 300 likely Republican primary voters in the 5th district over the weekend and found that 28 percent said they would vote for Buehrer.
Of all the rest surveyed, 25 percent said they would vote for Latta, 6 percent said they would vote for one of the three other candidates running and 41 percent said they were undecided.
Steve Buehrer Takes Lead in Ohio's 5th Congressional Special