The 4% retirement rule

Luddly Neddite

Diamond Member
Sep 14, 2011
63,947
9,980
Retirement: Is the 4% rule still relevant?
Rodney Brooks, USA TODAY 12 p.m. EST December 30, 2014


132 CONNECT 72 TWEET 15 LINKEDIN 30 COMMENTEMAILMORE
For the last 20 years there has been a steadily consistent rule of thumb by America's financial planners when it comes to retirement — the 4% rule.

And what exactly is the 4% rule?

In short, it's a guideline that helps retirees determine how much money they should take from their nest egg each year. The goal is to help make sure the money lasts.

In other words, if you adhere to the rule and have a nest egg of $500,000, you should limit your withdrawals for living expenses to 4%, or $20,000 a year.

So, the big question is, after 20 years, is the rule still relevant? Most planners interviewed say yes — but only as a rule of thumb, and certainly not for everyone.


=====
AND
=====

The 4% retirement rule is broken
<p>Sophisticated investment management made simple</p> <p>Jon Stein, Betterment CEO, discuss the company's $32 million round of funding and plans to make high-end financial planning services more affordable for the masses.</p>

If there is one thing that can capture the imagination of the public when it comes to money, it's a simple rule of thumb.


That has been part of the appeal of the so-called "4 percent rule"—an investment-income strategy that says as long as you withdraw no more than 4 percent of your initial portfolio, adjusted for inflation, on an annual basis during your retirement years, you shouldn't run out of money.


However, new research shows that this rule doesn't work for retirees in today's low-rate environment. Here's why.


Quest for stability

When the formula was introduced in the early 1990s, it was designed to accomplish these goals of retirees:



But while, in the public's imagination, the 4 percent figure remained fixed, the rates it relied on were anything but. Twenty years ago, when the rule appeared, the yield on a three-month Treasury bill was 6 percent.


Seems there are a lot of retirees here. Do any of you use this rule in their own life?
 
If you plan well and start your saving/401k right when you start working, you should have much more than 500k stashed away.

I'm just turning 40 this year and my 401k is at $215,000.00.
 
If you plan well and start your saving/401k right when you start working, you should have much more than 500k stashed away.

I'm just turning 40 this year and my 401k is at $215,000.00.

martybegan

At that rate, you'll never be able to retire.
 
Last edited:
The rule you quote is meaningless if you don't know the ROR on your retirement savings.

A simpler rule is that for every 150K you have saved at a 5% return you will have 12000 a year to spend for the next 20 years

So if you have 750K saved you will have 60K a year to live on for 20 years
 
If you plan well and start your saving/401k right when you start working, you should have much more than 500k stashed away.

I'm just turning 40 this year and my 401k is at $215,000.00.

martybegan

At that rate, you'll never be able to retire.

According to the projection software, i need 69k a year to maintain, i am projected at $100k a year, using said 4% rule.

They key with these things is they get bigger faster as you get older because of the dividends paid out. I made $5k in dividends this year, and based on removing my company stock value (which isnt paying dividends yet) and my 401k loan, returns 3.3% just in "free" money, not counting contributions and increased share value.

The other part is you have to move your stock funds to bonds and MM funds during stock peaks, or close to them, to realize gains in share value.
 
I think you need to look at the rate of return you are getting on your savings and adjust accordingly. You may also want to spend more at the beginning of your retirement than at the end. You may want to travel extensively in your 60s but not in your 80s

4% is overly cautious
 
If you plan well and start your saving/401k right when you start working, you should have much more than 500k stashed away.

I'm just turning 40 this year and my 401k is at $215,000.00.

imagine what you'd save if SS was not stealing 15% of your life time income from you?
 
Last edited:
Every dollar I make is one an illegal can't. Why would I ever retire?

yes at todays interest rates its very hard to live on the interest from your savings. This is a cruel affect of the liberal low interest policy. Why save for retirement at all?
 
Taking the mandated minimum (to avoid penalties) from accumulated retirement savings is working out well. Initial problem was what to do with the excess that gets put into taxable investments causing a new tax burden. In states like California the safe haven is "double tax-free" bond funds but not all states are that greedy so your answer may be different.
 

Forum List

Back
Top