Statistikhengst
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Interesting data from the SUSA poll from the great state of Minnesota:
SurveyUSA Election Poll 21535
President Barack Obama's approval ratings are underwater by -14 (38 approve / 52 disapprove) and yet, in the two highest races for 2014, the Democratic incumbents are solidly ahead and even heading into landslide territory.
MN GUB:
Mark Dayton (DFL-inc): 49
Jeff Johnson (R): 40
Hannah Nicollet (IP): 3
other / undecided: 8
Margin: Dayton +9
Mark Dayton approval: +14 (51/37)
MN SEN:
Al Franken (DFL-inc): 51
Mike McFadden: 42
Steve Carlson (IP): 2
other / undecided: 5
Margin: Franken +9
Al Franken approval: +21 (56/35)
Franken barely won this seat in 2008 and it took months to sort out the results. Never underestimate the power of the incumbency, folks.
MN House of Representatives, generic:
Republican: 45
Democrat: 43
other: 5
undecided: 8
Margin: Republican +2
Current composition of the Minnesota House of Representatives:
Minnesota House of Representatives - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
DFL 54.5
R 45.5
Margin: D +9
Back to the poll:
Minnesota's Health Insurance exchange (MNSure):
Approve: 27
Disapprove: 48
not sure: 25
margin: disapprove +21
So, in a state that just re-elected Barack Obama in 2008 by +7.69%, his approval is now deeply underwater, 48% of Minnesotans disapprove of the Health Care exchange for their state, the GOP has a very slight edge in the generic for the State HOR and yet, both DFL incumbents for GUB and SEN are in safe waters.
That is the disconnect we see very often in electoral politics, not in every state, but in many states.
This is why national generic polling is often somewhat worthless.
SurveyUSA Election Poll 21535
President Barack Obama's approval ratings are underwater by -14 (38 approve / 52 disapprove) and yet, in the two highest races for 2014, the Democratic incumbents are solidly ahead and even heading into landslide territory.
MN GUB:
Mark Dayton (DFL-inc): 49
Jeff Johnson (R): 40
Hannah Nicollet (IP): 3
other / undecided: 8
Margin: Dayton +9
Mark Dayton approval: +14 (51/37)
MN SEN:
Al Franken (DFL-inc): 51
Mike McFadden: 42
Steve Carlson (IP): 2
other / undecided: 5
Margin: Franken +9
Al Franken approval: +21 (56/35)
Franken barely won this seat in 2008 and it took months to sort out the results. Never underestimate the power of the incumbency, folks.
MN House of Representatives, generic:
Republican: 45
Democrat: 43
other: 5
undecided: 8
Margin: Republican +2
Current composition of the Minnesota House of Representatives:
Minnesota House of Representatives - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
DFL 54.5
R 45.5
Margin: D +9
Back to the poll:
Minnesota's Health Insurance exchange (MNSure):
Approve: 27
Disapprove: 48
not sure: 25
margin: disapprove +21
So, in a state that just re-elected Barack Obama in 2008 by +7.69%, his approval is now deeply underwater, 48% of Minnesotans disapprove of the Health Care exchange for their state, the GOP has a very slight edge in the generic for the State HOR and yet, both DFL incumbents for GUB and SEN are in safe waters.
That is the disconnect we see very often in electoral politics, not in every state, but in many states.
This is why national generic polling is often somewhat worthless.