The hockey stick was wrong

[Toddsterpatriot]

Looking back to my old 2018 thread I started realized that I forgot to post this that utterly destroys Dr Mann's lying "hockey stick" paper,

POST 51

The warmist morons don't even notice what the main data Dr. Mann used for his 1998 paper is. It is mentioned in post 1, but somehow they don't realize that the Bristlecone Pine Tree data is NOT a temperature database at all. Quoting this for as SECOND time.

McKitrick
"A very brief summary of the problems of the hockey stick would go like this. Mann’s algorithm, applied to a large proxy data set, extracted the shape associated with one small and controversial subset of the tree rings records, namely the bristlecone pine cores from high and arid mountains in the US Southwest. The trees are extremely long-lived, but grow in highly contorted shapes as bark dies back to a single twisted strip. The scientists who published the data (Graybill and Idso 1993) had specifically warned that the ring widths should not be used for temperature reconstruction, and in particular their 20th century portion is unlike the climatic history of the region, and is probably biased by other factors."

=====

Now POST 50

Here is some background of that junk paper, from Climate Audit:

Re-scaling the Mann and Jones 2003 PC1
"Mann archived the Mann and Jones PC1 in the Jones and Mann 2004 archive here. They state that they used 6 chronologies, but do not state which ones. Within the MBH99 network, there are exactly 6 series that start in AD200 or earlier. I then calculated the (erroneous) Mannomatic PC1 and compared it to the archived PC1 – it was a pretty close match, but not exact. By experimenting with it – and I hate to say how much time these experiments take – I deduced that there was a correlation of more than 0.9999 between values up to 1700 and a much lower correlation after that. This confirmed that I’d spotted the correct 6 chronologies and that the JM04 PC1 was a re-scaled re-centered version of the Mannomatic PC1 up to 1700 and was a splice of some other series after 1700.

Needless to say, there’s no account of the splicing in Mann and Jones 2003, but by now I can sometimes anticipate Mannian ad hockeries. I tried the MBH99 “fixed” PC1 in the AD1000 network (“fixed” implies a rational process; let’s use the term “adjusted” instead) since there is no evidence that the PC1 is in any sense “fixed”. The “adjusted” and raw AD1000 PC1 were formerly available at Virginia Mann’s FTP site, but with the evolution of PennState Mann, this archive is no longer available. I saved it in Nov 2003 when it was first made public and I’ve posted up the PC1s from that network here. Experimenting some more, I determined that the correlation of the AD1000 PC1 fixed adjusted had a correlation of more than 0.999 with the JM04 archived PC1 for the period after 1700, showing that it had been re-scaled and re-centered somehow to yield the JM04 version.

There was some evidence on the re-scaling and re-centering of the AD1000 fixed adjusted PC1. Jones and Mann 2004 (though not Mann and Jones 2003) Figure 4 caption said that the series had been standardized on 1750-1950. This yielded an emulation of the archived PC1 that was pretty close – it was a bit more than rounding but not a lot more. See the top panel of Figure 1 below showing the discrepancies between the trial rescaling of the AD1000 fixed adjusted PC1 and the JM04 archived version – there is a relatively good match after 1700 and poor match prior to 1700.. So far so good.

Now another problem arose – and this is one that I’ve not been able to figure out at all. One’s first assumption is that the AD200 PC1 would be rescaled and recentered in the same way (on 1750-1950). This proved not to be the case as shown in the graphic below -see the middle panel. The second panel shows the discrepancies between the AD200 PC1 re-scaled in the same way and the archived PC1. Neither the centering nor the scaling match."

===

The "hockey stick" paper has been long exposed as junk science that can only excite science illiterates in their unicorn dreams.

It is a perfect litmus test to find the warmist/alarmist gooks of the world who have no ability to spot the numerous problems of Dr. Mann's paper that covers only the Northern Hemisphere using Bristlecone tree ring data that was originally collected by Dr. Isdo and Dr. Graybill in 1993 to measure the effect of CO2 enrichment on the trees, temperature was a distant consideration in the paper.

Graybill and Isdo 1993 PDF

Don't disparage Nobel Prize winner Michael Mann.