Wehrwolfen
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- May 22, 2012
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Ten years on, newly published secret documents shed new light on potential turning points the United States missed.
BY MICHAEL R. GORDON, BERNARD E. TRAINOR
MARCH 12, 2013
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TEAM OF RIVALS
When President Barack Obama took office, he was faced with the challenge of shrinking the American military commitment to Iraq while encouraging the evolution of a stable Iraq. The task was complicated by the March 2010 parliamentary elections. The Iraqiya coalition led by Ayad Allawi, Maliki's principal rival, had won the most seats in the voting. But with the help of a convenient ruling from the Iraqi judiciary, Maliki was moving to assemble the biggest coalition and had no intention of vacating the premiership.
The solution favored by Vice President Joseph Biden, who had the lead on Iraqi policy for the administration, was to get all of the Iraqis players into the tent. There were two approaches. One was to persuade Jalal Talabani, Iraq's president, to resign, so that Allawi would take his place. Despite a phone call from President Obama himself, Talabani demurred.
The other was to rework the structure of the Iraqi government and establish a new power-sharing arrangement. It would be like a reverse game of musical chairs: Since they were more claimants for the top posts than positions, the United States would add another chair. Christopher Hill, the Obama administration's first ambassador in Baghdad, was a strong advocate of this approach, which he thought might be loosely modeled after the legislation the United States had adopted in 1947 that created the National Security Council, the Defense Department, and the CIA.
The plan was outlined in an American "non-paper," a diplomatic initiative that bore no official markings so it could be disowned if he leaked. A "Coordinating Council on National Strategic Policy" would be established to review national security issues. The panel would be headed by a secretary-general for national security affairs, a post that it was assumed would go to Allawi, and would also include the prime minister, the president, the parliamentary speaker, and other ranking officials.
But like the Obama administration's plan to replace Talabani, the scheme came to naught. Maliki and Allawi could never agree on the powers of the new body. And with the White House's focus on withdrawing troops, the American plan faded from view, leaving Iraqi politics as fractured as ever.
By 2013, the moderate Sunni who served as finance minister had left the Maliki government and the prime minister was as powerful as before.
Meanwhile, the civil war raging next door in Syria was creating new challenges as Iran began to fly military supplies to Damascus through Iraqi airspace. Fearful of what a Sunni-dominated Syria might mean for Iraq, Maliki was apprehensive about the possibility of Bashar al-Assad's overthrow, while Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq sided with the Syrian opposition.
The Iraq war was officially over. But a new phase in the struggle for power in the region had begun.
Read more:
The Iraq War That Might Have Been - By Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor | Foreign Policy