frazzledgear
Senior Member
- Mar 17, 2008
- 1,479
- 544
This thread title brought to you by the Redundant Department of Redundancy.
Yes lets ignore the question of why 3 points for Romney is a toss up but 3 points for Obama is a win, shall we?
Any poll that show Obama with less than 50% means he is losing that state and it doesn't matter whatsoever at this point what it shows for Romney. A poll showing Obama over Romney 48-46 and the rest undecided means Obama is down by 52%. Undecideds at this point don't break for the incumbent. Every pollster knows it, leftwing media knows it, RNC knows it, DNC knows it. An incumbent who is polling at 49% or less is losing that state and in serious trouble - true no matter what it shows for the challenger.
For example in 2004 polls at this point showed Bush polling 4 points higher than Kerry in Hawaii at 44-40 and some showing Kerry with as little as 38%. Kerry's numbers were never important because that 44% meant Bush had no shot at taking Hawaii whatsover and no one, including Bush, ever thought he did any more than he ever thought he had a shot at taking California. He lost Hawaii with just under 39% of the vote. Obama is in real trouble in every state but MA, VT, IL, NY, CA, RI, HI, CT and D.C. and Democrats know it which is why the DNC refused to waste even one dime of their resources on Gov. Walker's recall. Even if he and Romney are pretty close in the amount of money they raise, Obama is the one with numbers already far more hardened, more writ in stone and far less likely to move up and is going to have to fight in states he was able to take for granted last time. He is the known quantity and people have a more unbending, rigid opinion for better or worse about an incumbent than they do about his challenger.
COME ON NOVEMBER!