This Election is Over!

[DiveCon]

The NRA doesn't care about senseless deaths, as long as they keep signing up and buying!

thus showing your complete ignorance of what the NRA does

 

[Ninja]

4 point lead after "the most spectacular political speech in american history" and dick-H says "the election is over"

You guys are a bunch of n00bs.

 

[Richard-H]

As I said Earlier: THIS ELECTION IS OVER!

Obama is going to win in a landslide. The standard methods for polling are completely obsolete in this election:

First - Pollsters are not polling over cell phones. Most voters under 30 and quite a few over do not have landlines anymore so a huge demographic is being left out. Obama dominates this demographic.

Second - The entire voting population's profile (i.e. likely voters) will be different for this election. African Americans, young Americans, extreme liberals and people motivated by Obama's charisma will be coming out the woodwork like never before. These people are usually discounted by pollsters as being unlikely to vote.

Polling has been increasely inaccurate over the years. Polling is a business and like any other business wants to keep it's costs down while marketing it's product way above it's true quality (that's the American way). The larger the sample (i.e. people polled) the more it costs so they've been constantly reducing the sample size while using hokey mathmatics to insist that they're accurate.

Take a look at the number of people polled in these - pitifully small numbers of people that could not be even close to accurate. What's worse is that they limited the samples to only those people that match certain profiles. The whole system is out of touch with reality.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

I'm sure you've broken her heart, Kev !

She broke mine first, by supporting an illegal invasion of a sovereign nation.

 

[dilloduck]

She broke mine first, by supporting an illegal invasion of a sovereign nation.

She supports illegal immigration ???

 

[Silence]

I've been a registered voter since 1988 and I've never been contacted about a political poll so I'm actually going to agree with Richard on this one....These polls are inaccurate and slanted.

I will say this, I live in FL a traditionally red state and in my area I've seen no less than 50 Obama stickers on cars, I've seen ONE McCain sticker. Now that's no scientific or meaningul in any way, just an interesting factoid.

 

[Caligirl]

As I said Earlier: THIS ELECTION IS OVER!

Obama is going to win in a landslide. The standard methods for polling are completely obsolete in this election:

First - Pollsters are not polling over cell phones. Most voters under 30 and quite a few over do not have landlines anymore so a huge demographic is being left out. Obama dominates this demographic.

Second - The entire voting population's profile (i.e. likely voters) will be different for this election. African Americans, young Americans, extreme liberals and people motivated by Obama's charisma will be coming out the woodwork like never before. These people are usually discounted by pollsters as being unlikely to vote.

Polling has been increasely inaccurate over the years. Polling is a business and like any other business wants to keep it's costs down while marketing it's product way above it's true quality (that's the American way). The larger the sample (i.e. people polled) the more it costs so they've been constantly reducing the sample size while using hokey mathmatics to insist that they're accurate.

Take a look at the number of people polled in these - pitifully small numbers of people that could not be even close to accurate. What's worse is that they limited the samples to only those people that match certain profiles. The whole system is out of touch with reality.

Rasmussen called 2004 pretty well on almost every race. 2006 too.

Cell phones and that sort of issue are accounted for and weighted accordingly.

Most polls do not go below 1000 people, and I don't think that has dropped recently?

Either candidate could win. Either would be a far sight better than Bush.

 

[Caligirl]

I will say this, I live in FL a traditionally red state and in my area I've seen no less than 50 Obama stickers on cars, I've seen ONE McCain sticker. Now that's no scientific or meaningul in any way, just an interesting factoid.

I heard a similar thing on a report from some southern states. Red state, Obama stickers, no McCain stickers.

 

[dilloduck]

Now that's no scientific or meaningul in any way, just an interesting factoid.

You are correct--that is not scientific or meaningful in any way yet if Obama loses, I can hear the whining aleady. " But I say WAY more Obama bumper stickers. This can't be right "

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

She supports illegal immigration ???

That's not what I said.

 

[Jon]

First - Pollsters are not polling over cell phones.

Hmmm, so that call I got on my cell phone asking who I was voting for....that was a prank caller?

You obviousy know nothing about polls. ALL the pollsters poll cell phone users if they don't have a landline. You'll find it at the bottom of every poll's sources.

 

[Inferno]

The polls don't take on any real meaning for me until about two weeks prior to the election.

 

[Jon]

The polls don't take on any real meaning for me until about two weeks prior to the election.

Polls show trends. The trend right now is Obama should see a huge boost from his convention. He did not.

 

[Inferno]

Polls show trends. The trend right now is Obama should see a huge boost from his convention. He did not.

Under the circumstances he did well. The coventions being back to back hurt the bounce and the nomination of Palin did as well. He did just fine. McCain will do about the same bringing them back to even.

 

[Jon]

Under the circumstances he did well. The coventions being back to back hurt the bounce and the nomination of Palin did as well. He did just fine. McCain will do about the same bringing them back to even.

They already are back to even. Some polls show McCain ahead. And no poll actually shows the full effect of McCain's choice of VP. They all ran from 1-2 days before his choice to the day after his choice. So the ones from the days before will show no effect.

The next set of polls will be more accurate, and we'll get to see what effect she actually had.

 

[DiveCon]

As I said Earlier: THIS ELECTION IS OVER!

Obama is going to win in a landslide. The standard methods for polling are completely obsolete in this election:

First - Pollsters are not polling over cell phones. Most voters under 30 and quite a few over do not have landlines anymore so a huge demographic is being left out. Obama dominates this demographic.

Second - The entire voting population's profile (i.e. likely voters) will be different for this election. African Americans, young Americans, extreme liberals and people motivated by Obama's charisma will be coming out the woodwork like never before. These people are usually discounted by pollsters as being unlikely to vote.

Polling has been increasely inaccurate over the years. Polling is a business and like any other business wants to keep it's costs down while marketing it's product way above it's true quality (that's the American way). The larger the sample (i.e. people polled) the more it costs so they've been constantly reducing the sample size while using hokey mathmatics to insist that they're accurate.

Take a look at the number of people polled in these - pitifully small numbers of people that could not be even close to accurate. What's worse is that they limited the samples to only those people that match certain profiles. The whole system is out of touch with reality.

they DO call cell phones

and they are oversampling democrats to show obama in the lead
so you dont know what the hell you are talking about

 

[Jennifer.Bush]

I would agree it's over.

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Obama is up.

a national poll of less than 100 million people means it's over with a 3 point lead and an error of 3%
are you serious?

 

[Jennifer.Bush]

Umm coming off the Democrat Convention, one would expect a bump of 5-12 points. That this is where Obama is, doesn't bode well...

it's shameful

a god like figure like obama is only leading an old man and some no-one by the margin of error. plz

 

[Caligirl]

it's shameful

a god like figure like obama is only leading an old man and some no-one by the margin of error. plz

It's only the republicans that say Obama is a god. The democrats say is he is a disciplined, organized, very intelligent candidate for change.

 

[DiveCon]

a national poll of less than 100 million people means it's over with a 3 point lead and an error of 3%
are you serious?

um, most polls use less than 1000