Tracking the el nino

[ScienceRocks]

 

[jc456]

Funny graph no evidence of anything. 3.0 reads that graph. Nothing more. Lose

 

[Billy_Bob]

Considering the delayed response of water vapor, not fully unexpected nor is it catastrophic. Funnier still, it will vanish at much the same rate it appeared now that the ocean is no longer giving off so much heat. The one wrinkle that is going to really mess with your alarmism, the fact that Hudson bay is freezing over already and recent mid July snows in the Rockies have not melted, as it is to cold at high elevation. When it begins to snow in about two months at low elevations you had better hope the water vapor has gone down again or your alarmism is going to be buried under a heavy and unusual snow fall (Well, unusual only for those who were born after 1982, the rest of us know that it is not unusual or catastrophic).

BY the way, I see you have changed tactics now that your super El Nino is no longer in play.. Got to grasp on to something before you sink...

 

[Crick]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*

 

[jc456]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*

How long do we have to wait before conditions are reality?

Predictions after predictions!

 

[Billy_Bob]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*

I have read their discussion and had input of my own. They are missing the upper atmosphere cooling that has taken place. Watch closely for a significant revision in about two weeks as the warm pool continues to die..

 

[Crick]

Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise? It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.

 

[Crick]

Find us ONE OTHER climate scientist who agrees that they don't know how to do logs and that these ENSO predictions missed the upper atmosphere cooling and that YOU'VE got it right when all the experts with their fancy degrees who ACTUALLY DO THIS FOR A FUCKING LIVING got it wrong. Okay?

 

[westwall]

Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise? It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.

Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay. Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The easterlies are dying, the cold pool is now massive, and the Blob heat around Baja is now being pulled to the equator heading west. The cold pool around Alaska and the straights is taking over. Significant cooling is now starting in Alaska as shown by recent ambient air temps for the region barely above freezing during the day now. Watch for the shift to become more rapid over coming weeks. Nino region 3-4 is barely above + 1.0 Deg C anomaly and the region of 1.5 deg C is all but gone in just two weeks.

 

[Crick]

Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay. Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.

The ENSO index? Bulllshit.

23. Has a reasonable, scientific body come up with any meaningful conclusions and/or predictions in the field of physical oceanography regarding forcasting of the ocean?

1. 
   Regarding forecasting of the ocean, you may want to check out the following web page: NOAA PMEL TAO El Nino Forecasts, which summarizes a number of current El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts. These forecasts rely on predicting tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) months to seasons in advance. Various kinds of forecast schemes have been developed. Some are based on the statistics of previous ENSO variations, whereas others are based on actually simulating future changes in ocean currents and subsurface thermal structure.
   
   ENSO forecasts are not perfect. However, they are sufficiently skillful at this point that individuals, corporations, municipalities, states, and national governments have used them to prepare for El Nino and La Nina events. We know that unsually warm or cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have major consequences for global climate and for Pacific marine ecosystems. Forecasting Pacific SSTs can therefore provide society with an opportunity to mitigate against adverse consequences or to take advantage of some of the positive aspects of ENSO-related environmental change. The recent 1997-98 El Nino was the most recent example of success in ENSO forecasting.
   
   The advances in ENSO forecasting over the past 15 years have come about because of a major coordinated and ongoing international research effort, and there is a vast technical literature that describes this progress. If you want to learn more, a user friendly web gateway to El Nino and related information can be found at El Ni o Theme Page distributed information on El Ni o.

NOAA PMEL TAO Frequently asked Questons about El Nino and La Nina

If you've got a good source that says different, put up the link.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Unlike the 1998 El Nino there is no heat at depth. This one is very shallow and the reason it is dissipating so rapidly. The cold pool is welling up and dismantling the warm pool. The shift to La Nina will be rapid.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise? It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.

These are the same people that believes that cutting investment in infrastructure, science, r&d and education will grow America. I'll stick with people that have studied and spent a life time of learning to be able to say as they do....Believe me, I do pay attention to the real skeptics as I am one that has believed in the pause all the way back since 2004 but to sit here and tell me that el nino is bull shit, the green house effect is a lie and the entire noaa is a fraud...Well, proves to me that you're nutz and probably deserve to be ignored.

 

[jc456]

Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise? It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.

Because we experience weather and climate that doesn't lineup to their models. And then say the science is settled and mere reasonable people know there's no way. Then when queried to show data refuse. And that's suspicious. To many.

That's how!

 

[jc456]

Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise? It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.

These are the same people that believes that cutting investment in infrastructure, science, r&d and education will grow America. I'll stick with people that have studied and spent a life time of learning to be able to say as they do....Believe me, I do pay attention to the real skeptics as I am one that has believed in the pause all the way back since 2004 but to sit here and tell me that el nino is bull shit, the green house effect is a lie and the entire noaa is a fraud...Well, proves to me that you're nutz and probably deserve to be ignored.

Where'd you get that lie?

 

[Old Rocks]

Drop the pants for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Almost all of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5ºC through spring 2016. All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016.

Mathew, please do the honors. Present 3.4 is 1.7.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Drop the pants for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Almost all of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5ºC through spring 2016. All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016.

Mathew, please do the honors. Present 3.4 is 1.7.

You really are a fucking moron.. Hide and watch dufuss.. Your three month clock has just been reset.

 

[jc456]

Drop the pants for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Almost all of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5ºC through spring 2016. All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016.

Mathew, please do the honors. Present 3.4 is 1.7.

You really are a fucking moron.. Hide and watch dufuss.. Your three month clock has just been reset.

Model model always model.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I expect this to cross 2.0c by Oct...Must be nice being wrong and living your entire life to weaken America.

 

[jc456]

I expect this to cross 2.0c by Oct...Must be nice being wrong and living your entire life to weaken America.

I can put a dollar on a number on a roulette table and have a probability to win. The odds aren't with me however. You're predicting with your dollar. Just don't use mine. I know you'll be wrong, because history tells us so.