Tracking the el nino

[Old Rocks]

Well, Mr. BillyBob, given your accuracy to date on this El Nino, LOL!

 

[Old Rocks]

I give it a 80% chance of becoming a super....Very early to be at 1.7c at 3.4 and all signs point to this getting to 2.0c within the next few months.

Only fool couldn't see the writing on the wall.

And Billy Bob takes another spanking this week. Thank You, Mathew.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Poor little libtards.. On the left is 2015. On the right is 1997. Please note that there was substantial warmth coming up from the southern hemisphere which is not present today. The cold water bloom at the equator is slowing the west ward progression of warm water, very unlike the 97 event. The heat is cut off and the fish harvest shows that it has.

Now you can go back to your worshiping of Obama and AGW.... If this lasts more than two months I will be greatly surprised.

 

[Old Rocks]

1.7, Billy Bob. And just when might we expect your La Nina to begin? Next year about this time? And in the meantime, how strong is the El Nino going to get? You are going to get your weekly spanking from reality for a long time to come, Billy Bob.

 

[jc456]

1.7, Billy Bob. And just when might we expect your La Nina to begin? Next year about this time? And in the meantime, how strong is the El Nino going to get? You are going to get your weekly spanking from reality for a long time to come, Billy Bob.

I'm still waiting for the Elnino. Show me that first.

 

[Billy_Bob]

1.7, Billy Bob. And just when might we expect your La Nina to begin? Next year about this time? And in the meantime, how strong is the El Nino going to get? You are going to get your weekly spanking from reality for a long time to come, Billy Bob.

You wont have to wait long..

Sea temps have dropped dramatically in the last week. Many areas have dropped over 1 full degree C. Region 2-3 peaked this last week at 1.59 Anomaly and as it no longer has heat from the southern hemisphere to add to the equatorial mix we are now seeing the end to the current El Nino. I fully expect a drop in region 3-4 below 1.4 deg anomaly within the week. At the current rate of sea temperature decline it wont last more than two more months.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Can't wait until the Monday update! I'll predict it will be 1.9c at 3.4.

 

[jc456]

Can't wait until the Monday update! I'll predict it will be 1.9c at 3.4.

And if it's not?

 

[ScienceRocks]

Jc456, I know more Meteorology in my little finger then you will ever care to understand. Maybe you should just watch as I post about this amazing event?

 

[jc456]

Jc456, I know more Meteorology in my little finger then you will ever care to understand. Maybe you should just watch as I post about this amazing event?

So not positive? Who cares if you have no confidence?

 

[mamooth]

Stupid people tend to be brimming with absolute confidence, that being part of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome. It's the intelligent people who understand uncertainty.

 

[Old Rocks]

Thus far Mathews predictions are running at about 100%, while those of Billy Bob and jc are at 0. That is a simple fact anyone can ascertain for themselves by simply reviewing this thread. Right now, it appears that we are going to have at least a very strong El Nino through the rest of the year, perhaps even a record breaking one.

 

[jc456]

Stupid people tend to be brimming with absolute confidence, that being part of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome. It's the intelligent people who understand uncertainty.

says Dr. Spock.

 

[jc456]

Jc456, I know more Meteorology in my little finger then you will ever care to understand. Maybe you should just watch as I post about this amazing event?

still no confidence in your little finger?

 

[Old Rocks]

Almost all of the models indicate
Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will
remain greater than or equal to
+0.5ºC through spring 2016.
All multi-model averages suggest
that Niño 3.4 will be above
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño)
during late 2015 into early 2016.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The El Nino remains strong, drop the pants, Billy Boy, the paddle is ready again this week. Currently 1.6.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Almost all of the models indicate
Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will
remain greater than or equal to
+0.5ºC through spring 2016.
All multi-model averages suggest
that Niño 3.4 will be above
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño)
during late 2015 into early 2016.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The El Nino remains strong, drop the pants, Billy Boy, the paddle is ready again this week. Currently 1.6.

You lie AGAIN!!!!!

+1.49 Deg C anomaly. A full 0.11 drop from last week.. The shift to cold has begun in 3-4...

Why do you find it necessary to lie OLD FRAUD?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Thus far Mathews predictions are running at about 100%, while those of Billy Bob and jc are at 0. That is a simple fact anyone can ascertain for themselves by simply reviewing this thread. Right now, it appears that we are going to have at least a very strong El Nino through the rest of the year, perhaps even a record breaking one.

The bull shit manufacturing continues... Cooling has now taken over just as I predicted...

No more heat flow from south america and the cold pools are decimating the heat pools cutting off flows.... Just the first week of temperature drop and it appears that cooling will happen significantly and fast. 4-6 weeks is all that is left of El Nino and its isn't a strong one..

 

[mamooth]

WWF smackdown! El Nino vs. The Blob!

Why a super El Ni o could still be a bust for California drought relief - The Washington Post
---
But El Niño isn’t the only weather game in town, and there’s one major difference between this year and the strongest El Niño on record — a vast pool of much warmer than average water in the northeast Pacific Ocean, which some have dubbed “the blob.”

That pool of incredibly warm ocean water was a major player in the weather over western North America this past winter. A strong ridge of high pressure was parked over the region, keeping things warm and dry from California to Alaska. It was a tangled feedback process between hot, dry soil, the strong ridge, and the blob — all working together to enhance the ridge itself, leading to more hot, dry weather. The wintertime pattern has been so domineering that West Coast meteorologists dubbed it the “ridiculously resilient ridge.”

...

But the Capital Weather Gang’s Matt Rogers says the North Pacific warm pool is a powerhouse right now and could prove hard to overcome, especially if El Niño turns out to be weaker than predicted.
---

 

[jc456]

WWF smackdown! El Nino vs. The Blob!

Why a super El Ni o could still be a bust for California drought relief - The Washington Post
---
But El Niño isn’t the only weather game in town, and there’s one major difference between this year and the strongest El Niño on record — a vast pool of much warmer than average water in the northeast Pacific Ocean, which some have dubbed “the blob.”

That pool of incredibly warm ocean water was a major player in the weather over western North America this past winter. A strong ridge of high pressure was parked over the region, keeping things warm and dry from California to Alaska. It was a tangled feedback process between hot, dry soil, the strong ridge, and the blob — all working together to enhance the ridge itself, leading to more hot, dry weather. The wintertime pattern has been so domineering that West Coast meteorologists dubbed it the “ridiculously resilient ridge.”

...

But the Capital Weather Gang’s Matt Rogers says the North Pacific warm pool is a powerhouse right now and could prove hard to overcome, especially if El Niño turns out to be weaker than predicted.
---

where? which buoy.

 

[Billy_Bob]

THE COOLING TREND INTENSIFIES AS THE BLOB' HEAT DISSIPATES...

Region 3-4 has dropped another .27 deg C this week.. Going to be interesting to see what NOAA posts tomorrow..