Tracking the el nino

[Old Rocks]

Thus far, the history of the predictions on this El Nino are about 100% for Mathew, and about 0% for you and Billy Bob. Just review this thread. It is just laughable how wrong you to ignoramouses have been.

 

[jc456]

Thus far, the history of the predictions on this El Nino are about 100% for Mathew, and about 0% for you and Billy Bob. Just review this thread. It is just laughable how wrong you to ignoramouses have been.

where is it then?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Thus far, the history of the predictions on this El Nino are about 100% for Mathew, and about 0% for you and Billy Bob. Just review this thread. It is just laughable how wrong you to ignoramouses have been.

Your a legend in your own mind.... But that is the only place your a legend.. The rest of us know better..

 

[Crick]

The rest of us can read. You're batting 000 Mr Weatherman

 

[Billy_Bob]

Last months averages are in for the US and Canadian areas. Despite the El Nino, no state was above average for July. Our Office of meteorologists looked at the EU and the Northern Hemisphere in general and found that the majority of the Northern hemisphere was below average temp.

Given a moderate El Nino we should be experiencing higher temperatures than normal in Pacific Ocean states and following the jet stream down wind. But it isn't happening. When we looked at night time temperatures (these are where latent heat will show itself) and all were at or below average for their respective areas. The 64,000 dollar question is why? This question sparked a lively debate among our diverse group of scientists.

One of the agreed upon observations was one of the polar jet and the polar low remaining twice as strong this summer. One need only look to the Hudson Bay freeze over increase during the middle of summer. Ice levels are increasing due to very low night time temperatures and near freezing temps during the day. We agreed that the polar low is impacting below 75 Deg Lat and has been since last winter. Much of Canada is well below normal by 2.6 deg C. as is much of Europe. The Atlantic is very cold and will remain so for then next 15-25 years. Equatorial heat is not present as is evident in our no major Atlantic hurricane season.

The cold flow is only being disrupted in the Pacific and only below 45 Deg Lat.

YOU will note near the end of the loop that the cold water is already pushing into the Oregon coast line and very cold water is already pushing down the eastern seaboard of the US. The atmospheric pressures are pushing the cold to lower latitudes.

Now this is where there is some dissension in the group. Some think that we will see warming in nighttime temps the next few months of Oregon, California, Washington, Nevada and Arizona while others seem to think that it will be wide spread. Here in lies the problem, the barometric pressure is dropping in the northern US already towards winter time levels. This generally shifts the equatorial warm weather patterns southward. Any warming from El Nino will be very limited to coastal states.

With cooling in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering straights, there is no heat to cause warming in the polar jet flow which is now becoming predominate over the mid west and east of the great divide. Thus there will be little to no warming above 45- 50 deg Lat.

I dare to say the this El Nino will be one that is very confined to small areas and it wont give them the "hottest ev'a" that they desire. That said, if the atmospheric water content remains high, the western US is going to get one hell of a winter with the amount of cold that is pushing southward.

Western US Cities and highway departments have been doubling their standard orders for deicing and sand products according to regional suppliers of Soda Ash, Salt and Sand. It seems they too are preparing for a very long, cold, and deep winter season.

 

[Crick]

What was the source of your material Billy?

 

[Billy_Bob]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

 

[longknife]

El Niño Partially Closes Panama Canal

The Panama Canal will be temporarily closed to ships above a certain size owing to a drought that has lowered lakes feeding the waterway. The restrictions are to go into effect on September 8.


Lots of reports on the web about this weather phenomenon. Changing patterns are going to severely hurt some places and help others.


Read more @ Panama Canal limits ship size amid El Nino drought News DW.COM 08.08.2015

 

[Billy_Bob]

El Niño Partially Closes Panama Canal

The Panama Canal will be temporarily closed to ships above a certain size owing to a drought that has lowered lakes feeding the waterway. The restrictions are to go into effect on September 8.


Lots of reports on the web about this weather phenomenon. Changing patterns are going to severely hurt some places and help others.


Read more @ Panama Canal limits ship size amid El Nino drought News DW.COM 08.08.2015

And it has happened two other times in its history... Most reports on the web fail to mention them. Low budget Journalism... kind of like low information voters.. neither take the time to research and find out for themselves.

 

[flacaltenn]

Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay. Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.

The ENSO index? Bulllshit.

23. Has a reasonable, scientific body come up with any meaningful conclusions and/or predictions in the field of physical oceanography regarding forcasting of the ocean?

1. 
   Regarding forecasting of the ocean, you may want to check out the following web page: NOAA PMEL TAO El Nino Forecasts, which summarizes a number of current El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts. These forecasts rely on predicting tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) months to seasons in advance. Various kinds of forecast schemes have been developed. Some are based on the statistics of previous ENSO variations, whereas others are based on actually simulating future changes in ocean currents and subsurface thermal structure.
   
   ENSO forecasts are not perfect. However, they are sufficiently skillful at this point that individuals, corporations, municipalities, states, and national governments have used them to prepare for El Nino and La Nina events. We know that unsually warm or cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have major consequences for global climate and for Pacific marine ecosystems. Forecasting Pacific SSTs can therefore provide society with an opportunity to mitigate against adverse consequences or to take advantage of some of the positive aspects of ENSO-related environmental change. The recent 1997-98 El Nino was the most recent example of success in ENSO forecasting.
   
   The advances in ENSO forecasting over the past 15 years have come about because of a major coordinated and ongoing international research effort, and there is a vast technical literature that describes this progress. If you want to learn more, a user friendly web gateway to El Nino and related information can be found at El Ni o Theme Page distributed information on El Ni o.

NOAA PMEL TAO Frequently asked Questons about El Nino and La Nina

If you've got a good source that says different, put up the link.

Not hard to predict El Nino "like" events. Or even the occurence of one. The talent would be forecasting the INTENSITY AND DURATION of the event..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay. Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.

The ENSO index? Bulllshit.

23. Has a reasonable, scientific body come up with any meaningful conclusions and/or predictions in the field of physical oceanography regarding forcasting of the ocean?

1. 
   Regarding forecasting of the ocean, you may want to check out the following web page: NOAA PMEL TAO El Nino Forecasts, which summarizes a number of current El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts. These forecasts rely on predicting tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) months to seasons in advance. Various kinds of forecast schemes have been developed. Some are based on the statistics of previous ENSO variations, whereas others are based on actually simulating future changes in ocean currents and subsurface thermal structure.
   
   ENSO forecasts are not perfect. However, they are sufficiently skillful at this point that individuals, corporations, municipalities, states, and national governments have used them to prepare for El Nino and La Nina events. We know that unsually warm or cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have major consequences for global climate and for Pacific marine ecosystems. Forecasting Pacific SSTs can therefore provide society with an opportunity to mitigate against adverse consequences or to take advantage of some of the positive aspects of ENSO-related environmental change. The recent 1997-98 El Nino was the most recent example of success in ENSO forecasting.
   
   The advances in ENSO forecasting over the past 15 years have come about because of a major coordinated and ongoing international research effort, and there is a vast technical literature that describes this progress. If you want to learn more, a user friendly web gateway to El Nino and related information can be found at El Ni o Theme Page distributed information on El Ni o.

NOAA PMEL TAO Frequently asked Questons about El Nino and La Nina

If you've got a good source that says different, put up the link.

Not hard to predict El Nino "like" events. Or even the occurence of one. The talent would be forecasting the INTENSITY AND DURATION of the event..

Now this is fact!

One of the biggest disputes in our office is why we have not seen an increase in PM temperatures (or latent heat). US-CRN shows no PM increase and neither does RSS. They want to know what is canceling it out. Prediction of what these things are going to do is very hard to get right. The only thing we could agree on was the increased size of the polar low and jet through the summer. How that shift is affecting the northern hemisphere is rather interesting. East of the great divide and throughout the Midwest we have had no warming. It has been, in fact, cooler than normal by -0.6 deg C. Only the coastal states have seen any effect in heat (very little however as well) while the rest of the states have cooled due to increased water content in the atmosphere.

In 1998 the polar low was very small and confined to the pole. This year however it is twice average size as is the polar jet as well. Its going to be a wild US winter for the western US if this cold continues to build this early.

It is the interactions of different systems which we do not fully understand which make prediction so hard..

 

[ScienceRocks]

Predicting the formation of a positive enso event let a lone strength and time span is very hard. This is the importance of research and investing in buoies to better understand them. Understanding our planets climate and weather patterns is a reasonable thing to do to protect civilization and should be invested in. I could name dozens of civilizations that died because they didn't understand such events.

Based on the data we do have I'd say we have a strong nino and all the experts will agree with that.

 

[Old Rocks]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

LOL.

 

[jc456]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

He was at a holiday inn express that's where anybody can be anything they want to be

 

[Old Rocks]

Weekly ENSO information again tomorrow, get ready to drop your pants again, Mr. Billy Bob.

 

[Crick]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

 

[Billy_Bob]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Dailys on Levi Cowan's site are almost @ 2.0 for Nino 3.4.

 

[flacaltenn]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

 

[Billy_Bob]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

Depends on whether or not the boys over at NASA have been tweaking the data. Going to be taking a very close look at Antarctic and Arctic ice data this week as it appears we may be having sever sensor drift on one of the satellites used for this calculation. The rapid pronounced deviation, in the southern hemisphere, without a significant global event, leads me to suspect a failure and the need to look at it very closely. It appears very suspicious.