Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

Rapid cooling is now the new game. cold pools (-0.5 deg C or more) have increased 2.79% in just the last week along the equator.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This shows almost a full deg C drop in most equatorial regions and the heat is now being deflected into the southern hemisphere.

Its looking like we have peaked. One or two more weeks will tell the tale.

 

[Crick]

Is your boss impressed with your arguments?

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL. Wonderful to have a nice record of Mr. Billy Bob's predictions right here. Reading back over them can provide all the insight one needs to judge Billy Bob's abilities in meteorology. Perhaps he had better just continue his career of flipping burgers.

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[Old Rocks]

Really hope that upper end doesn't happen. Even the lowest line puts us into an El Nino until Mar16. The upper line? Well, that would be interesting.

 

[flacaltenn]

Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Jan..

What did they do? Ask Siri which way to Starbucks?? Now be fair to Billy Bob..

There is ONE (maybe TWO) prediction in there that pretty much calls this the peak..

I'd say they in as much grief as Billy Bob is since ALL their bets are pretty well centered around Jan to unwind this.. Maybe there's another "plume" that covers the table on longevity.
Bet they pull that one out if they lose with this one..

 

[ScienceRocks]

Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Feb..

What did they do? Ask Siri which way to Starbucks?? Now be fair to Billy Bob..

There is ONE (maybe TWO) prediction in there that pretty much calls this the peak..

I'd say they in as much grief as Billy Bob is since ALL their bets are pretty well centered around Jan to unwind this.. Maybe there's another "plume" that covers the table on longevity.
Bet they pull that one out if they lose with this one..

That is one ensemble spread....I wish I could say what I feel but I leave sleeping dogs lay. I am quite frankly a little angry at the moment.

 

[flacaltenn]

Don't sweat it Matthew.. That's the European model. What do Europeans know about the Pacific Ocean anyways??

 

[Crick]

Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Jan..

Not quite. There's not a single projection there that supports Billy Boy's conjectures.

 

[longknife]

Didn't link to it but predictions are for an extremely cold winter with lots of snowfall.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Jan..

Not quite. There's not a single projection there that supports Billy Boy's conjectures.

There are 7 in that spaghetti mess which share my projections. You really have a hard time with graphs, dont you!

 

[Billy_Bob]

Didn't link to it but predictions are for an extremely cold winter with lots of snowfall.

Yep! that fact is not conjecture and supported by empirical evidence.

 

[ScienceRocks]

This year’s El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded

The world could be headed for one of the strongest El Niños in recorded history, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)said Thursday. A strong El Niño event would disrupt weather patterns across the globe, boost global temperatures—and help relieve California’s historic drought.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon triggered by unusually warm temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, affects weather across the planet. The warmer Pacific surface temperatures are above the norm, the more significant forecasters predict El Niño will be. This year, climate forecasters observed sea surface temperatures more than 3.6°F (2°C) above average across the east central Pacific Ocean. That level of heat has only been recorded three times in the last 65 years, and all three occurrences matched with strong El Niño events.

It's already 1.9...So I find it almost "certain" that 3.4 will cross 2.0c and become one of less then a handfull of super nino's in recorded history. Can we all agree that this "short term" event effects the planets weather in ways that can do damage to one place or another through drought or extreme rainfall? Isn't that reason enough to want to learn more.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This year’s El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded

The world could be headed for one of the strongest El Niños in recorded history, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)said Thursday. A strong El Niño event would disrupt weather patterns across the globe, boost global temperatures—and help relieve California’s historic drought.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon triggered by unusually warm temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, affects weather across the planet. The warmer Pacific surface temperatures are above the norm, the more significant forecasters predict El Niño will be. This year, climate forecasters observed sea surface temperatures more than 3.6°F (2°C) above average across the east central Pacific Ocean. That level of heat has only been recorded three times in the last 65 years, and all three occurrences matched with strong El Niño events.

It's already 1.9...So I find it almost "certain" that 3.4 will cross 2.0c and become one of less then a handfull of super nino's in recorded history. Can we all agree that this "short term" event effects the planets weather in ways that can do damage to one place or another through drought or extreme rainfall? Isn't that reason enough to want to learn more.

As long as the alarmists will agree that MAN IS NOT THE CAUSE and we CAN NOT CONTROL IT!.. The El Nino projection is dead wrong IMHO.. more scaremongering as it is dying..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Region 1-2 continues to cool rapidly. This last week looks to be around -.3 deg C of cooling..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Region 3-4 might bump to 1.8 but it will fall rapidly after that.. The heat is very localized and dissipating in areas.. El Nino wont last long now. The region of extremely cold water is now intruding from the south on the equator.. the turn to La Nina will be rapid.

 

[Crick]

Do you believe this el Nino will end before the end of 2015?

 

[ScienceRocks]

Do you believe this el Nino will end before the end of 2015?

NO,,,probably won't end to at least June 2016. Billybob makes me laugh and I very rarely read his stuff as to keep my sanity I have him on ignore! hahaha.

The el nino is one thing you have to admit is a fact as it is right there staring back at you.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I get most of my graphs from either the noaa, nasa, Americanwx or storm2k. I am a meteorological nut.

So it isn't like I am going to political blogs. hahaha